TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$576,616
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$585,642

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $576,616 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 248 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ade…f5b0backed Over49c199,999$98,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101,999.731,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Under0c87,307$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.318840.9%36 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Under54c64,819$35,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,0009945.5%45 W · 54 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under51c44,855$22,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,876.0537355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb915…8da5backed Under54c43,626$23,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,558.0510459.6%62 W · 42 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+23%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Over46c43,010$19,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,225.416039.4%63 W · 97 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf689…9d83backed Over50c42,000$21,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,0001747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under51c41,485$21,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,233.2155251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Over46c38,332$17,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,699.2329245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Under50c24,539$12,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,269.2654539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked Under50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00014842.6%63 W · 85 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2114…84c5backed Under51c19,608$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0005935.6%21 W · 38 L-8.3wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-28.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Over46c18,822$8,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,163.7369848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under52c15,077$7,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,780.754,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a4c…1f30backed Under51c15,000$7,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,650650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf421…cff4backed Under51c9,804$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0004042.5%17 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Over24c8,324$1,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,326.5752052.3%272 W · 248 L+31.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+19%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7871…c0d5backed Under51c7,843$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a66…ae5ebacked Under51c7,843$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00014251.4%73 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x994b…c047backed Under55c7,174$3,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,945.72944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b91…83babacked Under76c6,214$4,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,722.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72bc…902cbacked Under76c6,213$4,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,721.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e4e…1dfcbacked Under51c6,176$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1503342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Over50c6,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,00079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Under51c6,000$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,06089853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf595…bfb5backed Over46c6,000$2,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,239.993743.2%16 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6157…9fb4backed Over50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5007963.3%50 W · 29 L+7.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Under54c5,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7004465.9%29 W · 15 L+4.8wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+25%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under54c4,551$2,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,435.266,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6cd…acebbacked Under50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+18%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9d3…079fbacked Under51c3,922$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x379a…5122backed Under51c3,922$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0003030%9 W · 21 L-5.6wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-38.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe0a2…40d5backed Under51c3,922$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00021943.4%95 W · 124 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Over46c3,802$1,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,052.8528643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over45c3,749$1,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,061.742,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a74…de59backed Over28c3,383$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,433.2111048.2%53 W · 57 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Under51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53082442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dd1…7918backed Over49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5302454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over47c2,898$1,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,527.061,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bbd…5c97backed Over47c2,857$1,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,514.453256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d5d…191dbacked Under51c2,728$1,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,391.345442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under51c2,609$1,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330.671,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Under51c2,587$1,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.3719653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…24eebacked Over49c2,500$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2758451.2%43 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Over49c2,292$1,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,168.8965045.1%293 W · 357 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under54c2,160$1,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.0764651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab2d…b1aabacked Over48c2,062$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,072.4429547.5%140 W · 155 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Over49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02013642.6%58 W · 78 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Over47c2,000$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,07066352.6%349 W · 314 L+30.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x951f…e430backed Over50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00023652.5%124 W · 112 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.112,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over42c1,869$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,084.528,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ed…1ea1backed Under52c1,719$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.61145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Under53c1,575$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.7312451.6%64 W · 60 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Under53c1,575$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.735269.2%36 W · 16 L+8.7wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+32.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x73da…b7acbacked Over49c1,500$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76520057%114 W · 86 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Over49c1,500$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7652245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under50c1,472$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.0632045.3%145 W · 175 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d9…c125backed Under51c1,471$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75020247.5%96 W · 106 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca5f…7854backed Over49c1,400$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7141450%7 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Over47c1,160$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.6662051.1%317 W · 303 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked Under51c1,078$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55018748.1%90 W · 97 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Under50c1,018$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50973051.8%378 W · 352 L-2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bec…07a8backed Under51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51020744%91 W · 116 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Over49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51056043.9%246 W · 314 L-31.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over6c1,000$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9402,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72a6…cfefbacked Over50c876.67$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.345839.7%23 W · 35 L-5.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-19.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Over5c876.4$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.5836051.7%186 W · 174 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Under51c835.27$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.9923553.6%126 W · 109 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Over49c779.93$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.7630448.4%147 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked Under51c756.12$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.6222349.8%111 W · 112 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21db…2a42backed Over27c746.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.8818850.5%95 W · 93 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa535…9e5ebacked Under51c713$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.6314049.3%69 W · 71 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Over50c706$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35311242%47 W · 65 L-10.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x73b4…44d0backed Over46c704.35$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.351172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.24per pick49cpaid+48.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7851…d471backed Under51c700$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3578148.1%39 W · 42 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0def…4ddbbacked Over49c650$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.52548%12 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over44c610.5$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.881,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Under54c600$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32449345.2%223 W · 270 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe22a…cb75backed Under51c600$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3063948.7%19 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7084…0ae5backed Over45c600$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3301546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under51c590.68$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.2571449.3%352 W · 362 L+2.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over19c568.59$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.851,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Under50c555$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.521446.7%100 W · 114 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Under55c539.49$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.728744.8%39 W · 48 L-8.7wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x135d…56c0backed Under55c532.93$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.116544.6%29 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde6b…fae0backed Under50c510$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Over50c460$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23019951.8%103 W · 96 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78bf…6df9backed Under51c459.02$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.16261.3%38 W · 24 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c03…f8bebacked Under54c453.85$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.75339.6%21 W · 32 L-6.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd239…2083backed Under51c425.49$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21715543.2%67 W · 88 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed Under51c417.02$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.6810059%59 W · 41 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Over50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20025945.6%118 W · 141 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec2d…896cbacked Under50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007944.3%35 W · 44 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef07…bb26backed Over50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54a2…5dfebacked Over50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2003438.2%13 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x198c…6a94backed Under50c396$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19811946.2%55 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb69…c773backed Under51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20013148.9%64 W · 67 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed Under40c375$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504734%16 W · 31 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.