TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-7.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Spursof Thunder, Spurs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,928
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,653

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,928 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4247…91c4backed Thunder0c17,960$18 inLost-$17.9611136%40 W · 71 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Thunder50c2,561$1,272 inLost-$1,272.1455251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Spurs49c1,992$976 inWon+$1,015.91,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Thunder5c1,315$72 inLost-$71.872,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Thunder4c1,130$47 inLost-$46.8353842%226 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaea3…fe61backed Thunder1c1,000$10 inLost-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick12cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Thunder48c873.94$419 inLost-$419.4969848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Spurs61c840.87$514 inWon+$326.458,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Thunder16c769.91$127 inLost-$126.691,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Thunder8c767$60 inLost-$60.281,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Thunder7c749.43$52 inLost-$52.4636051.7%186 W · 174 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked Thunder27c539.97$148 inLost-$148.4711639.7%46 W · 70 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x748d…26e2backed Spurs72c416.67$300 inWon+$116.67580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+21.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked Spurs52c384.62$200 inWon+$184.6224055.4%133 W · 107 L+0.8wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x744b…848ebacked Thunder49c300$147 inLost-$14714552.4%76 W · 69 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bcc…4324backed Spurs52c203$106 inWon+$97.4452844.7%236 W · 292 L+1.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3afb…0004backed Thunder7c200.71$14 inLost-$14.05933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid+46.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x87e8…5e6ebacked Spurs65c199.99$130 inWon+$7016743.7%73 W · 94 L-16.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-18.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Spurs52c192.31$100 inWon+$92.3138432.6%125 W · 259 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Spurs51c192.04$98 inWon+$94.115850.6%80 W · 78 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x488e…ea2ebacked Thunder49c190$93 inLost-$93.14839.6%19 W · 29 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0435…cf1dbacked Spurs79c151.9$120 inWon+$31.916947.3%80 W · 89 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67be…d937backed Spurs72c145.6$105 inWon+$40.77837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick59cpaid-37.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed Thunder28c126.85$35 inLost-$35.426028.3%17 W · 43 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x276d…ea8fbacked Spurs72c111.11$80 inWon+$31.114156.1%23 W · 18 L-5.5wins-0.14per pick70cpaid-19.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd424…bf7bbacked Thunder49c102.04$50 inLost-$505750.9%29 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf16…b409backed Thunder23c86.96$20 inLost-$203043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Spurs51c86.27$44 inWon+$42.271,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Spurs77c66.96$52 inWon+$15.439842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b1…73b2backed Thunder49c61.22$30 inLost-$3017949.2%88 W · 91 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16bd…ed47backed Spurs79c57.97$46 inWon+$12.377652.6%40 W · 36 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bfe…bfb7backed Thunder47c52.08$24 inLost-$24.332138.1%8 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+53.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa06…74c3backed Spurs79c46.41$37 inWon+$9.751442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick63cpaid-38.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5c43…31c1backed Spurs52c38.46$20 inWon+$18.4612044.2%53 W · 67 L-8.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d1d…d738backed Spurs52c38.46$20 inWon+$18.46966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+32.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c9b…7349backed Spurs70c28.57$20 inWon+$8.5721574.4%160 W · 55 L+8.5wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f18…d8f5backed Spurs57c26.11$15 inWon+$11.119271.7%66 W · 26 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+19.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Spurs62c19.65$12 inWon+$7.4319360.1%116 W · 77 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.