TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe720…2bb3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
246
Categories scored
26
Categories below 50
15

Best Category: CS2, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category CS2 at 57 out of 100; worst Euroleague at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT7636.8%28 W · 48 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 76 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Lucrezia Stefaninibacked Darja Vidmanova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$43.54
Ilkley: Harmony Tan vs Lanlana Tararudeebacked Lanlana Tararudee · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.6
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekicbacked Marie Bouzkova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.1
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankovabacked Magda Linette · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$59.4
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigurbacked Panna Udvardy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.8
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broombacked Henrique Rocha · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$63.25
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlikbacked Mimi Xu · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.86
ITF Guimaraes: Katherine Sebov vs Carolyn Ansaribacked Katherine Sebov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$49.38
ITF Nyiregyhaza: Gabor Hornung vs Oscar Jose Gutierrezbacked Oscar Jose Gutierrez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$26
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Jan Choinskibacked Jan Choinski · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.08
ITF Wuning: Haruka Kaji vs Ya Yi Yangbacked Haruka Kaji · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$76
Set 1 Winner: McCabe vs Bergsbacked Bergs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$49.53
Set 1 Winner: Boogaard vs Wubacked Wu · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.55
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Jonas Forejtekbacked Dusan Lajovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$36
Modena: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Xiaodi Youbacked Leyre Romero Gormaz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$25.3
Ilkley: Elvina Kalieva vs Ashlyn Kruegerbacked Elvina Kalieva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.25
Ilkley: Francesco Maestrelli vs Arthur Geabacked Arthur Gea · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$54.6
Modena: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Darja Semenistajabacked Darja Semenistaja · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$51.6
Modena: Martina Trevisan vs Jennifer Ruggeribacked Jennifer Ruggeri · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.3
Humbert vs. Ymer: Match O/U 22.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$47.28
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreevabacked Maja Chwalinska · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Tyler: Edas Butvilas vs Andre Ilaganbacked Andre Ilagan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$61
Tyler: Hayato Matsuoka vs Henry Searlebacked Hayato Matsuoka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.9
Birmingham: Ashlyn Krueger vs Janice Tjenbacked Janice Tjen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Roland Garros WTA: Katie Boulter vs Anastasia Potapovabacked Katie Boulter · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.1
Showing 25 of 76 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT3253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+37.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
CS2 — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs Clutchain (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffsbacked XI Esport · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$111.29
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffsbacked eternal premium · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+203%+$167.5
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2backed M80 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs ex-RUBY (+1.5)backed 100 Thieves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$131.99
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2backed Monte · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$54
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs paiN Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Playoffsbacked paiN Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.46
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #1 Playoffsbacked KOLESIE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$72.8
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoffsbacked Virtus.pro · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$53.55
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance - Map 2 Winnerbacked Alliance · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$76
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Series 2 Playoffsbacked paiN Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.66
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship Playoffsbacked Betclic Apogee Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$56
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Tricked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffsbacked Tricked · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$57
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs FOKUS - Map 2 Winnerbacked FOKUS · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.01
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs HOTU (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffsbacked HOTU · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$10.93
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Sashi Esport (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffsbacked Sashi Esport · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.88
Counter-Strike: BET-M 33 vs Tricked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffsbacked Tricked · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$75.6
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Stagebacked Lazer Cats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+203%+$80.4
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffsbacked Eternal Fire · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.6
Games Total: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Lavked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stagebacked Lavked · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Counter-Strike: Vexa vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Series 2 Group Stagebacked BESTIA Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$75.61
Counter-Strike: R2 Esports Club vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South America Series 2 Group Stagebacked R2 Esports Club · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.79
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stagebacked Johnny Speeds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.8
Counter-Strike: SHISHKA vs Endless Journey (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffsbacked SHISHKA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+307%+$37.06
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Walczaki (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffsbacked Walczaki · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+97.9%+$64.3
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT2744.4%12 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 201.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$52
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$85.8
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.5
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$87.32
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$31.19
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$21
Julius Randle: Points O/U 16.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$12.42
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 112.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$45.37
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 204.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.5
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$35
Pistons vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$17.33
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Knicks vs. 76ers backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Timberwolves vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
76ers vs. Knicksbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+400%+$40
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$58.24
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+47%+$86.91
Will Jalen Duren win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.99
Cavaliers vs. Raptorsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.31
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.79
Trail Blazers vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.05
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT2528%7 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick34cpaid+14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5)backed Team WE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$205
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5)backed KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.4
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.48
Games Total: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$62
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffsbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Playoffsbacked Barça eSports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$62
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffsbacked Team WE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$178
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs MVK Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffsbacked MVK Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.2
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates (BO5) - LFL Playoffsbacked TLN Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
LoL: NRG Esports vs CCG Esports (BO3) - North American Challengers League Playoffsbacked CCG Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$137.83
LoL: Galions vs Esprit Shōnen - Game 2 Winnerbacked Esprit Shōnen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2backed DN SOOPers Challengers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.4
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed Dplus KIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.5
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2backed Hanwha Life Esports Challengers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.62
LoL: EKO Esports vs GMBLERS ESPORTS - Game 1 Winnerbacked EKO Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.5
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvanabacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.5
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5)backed BNK FEARX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1?backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.2
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 2 Winnerbacked HANJIN BRION Challengers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$45.5
LoL: T1 Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game 1 Winnerbacked T1 Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$69.85
LoL: Esprit Shōnen vs Ici Japon Corp. Esport (BO3) - LFL Playoffsbacked Ici Japon Corp. Esport · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Asia-Pacific Qualifier Playoffsbacked CTBC Flying Oyster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.5
Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 2?backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$19.44
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5)backed Nongshim Red Force · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.5
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs 7REX (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante Playoffsbacked paiN Gaming Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$16.8
All 25 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+77.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finlandbacked Finland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.95
World Championships: Czechia vs. Norwaybacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+525%+$78.21
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$105.3
AHL: Grand Rapids Griffins vs. Chicago Wolvesbacked Grand Rapids Griffins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.4
AHL: Coachella Valley Firebirds vs. Colorado Eaglesbacked Coachella Valley Firebirds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.75
AHL: Cleveland Monsters vs. Toronto Marliesbacked Toronto Marlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.34
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$28.8
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+100%+$35
AHL: Coachella Valley Firebirds vs. Colorado Eaglesbacked Coachella Valley Firebirds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
KHL: Ak Bars Kazan vs. Lokomotiv Yaroslavlbacked Lokomotiv Yaroslavl · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$64.37
All 10 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Valorant Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Valorant — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Map Handicap: TE (-1.5) vs Any Questions Gaming (+1.5)backed Trace Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$99.2
Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs Wolves Esports (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act 2 Playoffsbacked Wolves Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Valorant: MIBR vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffsbacked MIBR · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Playoffsbacked FULL SENSE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffsbacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Valorant: Global Esports vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Playoffsbacked Global Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Valorant: Barça eSports GC vs FOKUS Sakura (BO3) - VCT Game Changers EMEA Group Stagebacked Barça eSports GC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$17.5
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Team Liquid Academy (BO5) - VCL NORTH//EAST Playoffsbacked Team Liquid Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$25.23
All 8 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-33.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Cricket Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Cricket — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Euroleague Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Zhejiang Lionsbacked Shenzhen Leopards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopardsbacked Shenzhen Leopards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Manresa vs. Basket Zaragozabacked Basket Zaragoza · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.35
Shanghai Sharks vs. Beijing Ducksbacked Beijing Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.4
All 4 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick19cpaid+215.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
CA River Plate leading at halftime?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$69.12
Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-2.5)backed CF Cruz Azul · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.4
Will Coritiba FBC win on 2026-05-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$74.7
All 3 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-29.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
WNBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.68per pick33cpaid+236.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Asian League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Hazem SC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$38.5
Spread: Al Fateh Saudi Club (-1.5)backed Al Fateh Saudi Club · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$29
All 2 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aarhus GF vs. Viborg FF end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.73
Will PSV win on 2026-05-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$36.67
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.35
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)backed Real Madrid CF · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 2 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$455Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$454.77
Will Nice win on 2026-05-29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$414Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$414
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Zuffa Boxing 7: Massey vs. Clarke (Cruiserweight, Main)backed Clarke · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$19.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.