TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Euroleague · resolved market

Shenzhen Leopards vs. Zhejiang Lions

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Zhejiang Lionsof Shenzhen Leopards, Zhejiang Lions
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$95,616
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$114,152

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,616 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Euroleague
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf658…655ebacked Zhejiang Lions74c6,232$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,631.735360.4%32 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Shenzhen Leopards27c5,500$1,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,484.996346%29 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked Shenzhen Leopards24c5,138$1,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,244.21643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0de…8048backed Zhejiang Lions69c3,057$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.111662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Shenzhen Leopards26c3,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.9824430.3%74 W · 170 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Shenzhen Leopards44c2,545$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.6137052.7%195 W · 175 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf348…e543backed Shenzhen Leopards20c2,417$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.83823.7%9 W · 29 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-53.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Shenzhen Leopards27c2,177$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.5726935.3%95 W · 174 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc229…dbeabacked Shenzhen Leopards48c2,082$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid+12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Zhejiang Lions55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9003855.3%21 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Zhejiang Lions65c1,584$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.3313046.2%60 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8397…c78dbacked Shenzhen Leopards10c1,547$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf99…74babacked Zhejiang Lions73c1,370$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.861040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-37%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Zhejiang Lions73c1,338$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.55844.8%26 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x272d…bc2fbacked Zhejiang Lions50c1,305$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.492356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0828…a1a6backed Zhejiang Lions61c1,112$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Shenzhen Leopards40c1,109$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.4335234.7%122 W · 230 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Shenzhen Leopards45c1,098$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.3643543.7%190 W · 245 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x955a…3cd3backed Shenzhen Leopards15c1,060$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16db…8d0fbacked Zhejiang Lions47c1,052$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.391464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+31.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x26a6…dedebacked Shenzhen Leopards39c1,016$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.991020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-61.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c5f…ddf0backed Zhejiang Lions57c1,002$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed Zhejiang Lions53c950$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.52748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2958…007dbacked Shenzhen Leopards34c858.52$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2398…8894backed Zhejiang Lions72c847.74$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.784100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+78.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Zhejiang Lions67c729.99$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.756747.8%32 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x278f…ef30backed Zhejiang Lions73c721.06$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.59633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-52.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6292…d696backed Shenzhen Leopards55c523.81$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb75c…b6d3backed Zhejiang Lions66c519.68$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.791471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick64cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ea8…25f9backed Zhejiang Lions79c511.53$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.47560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7f2…d2d8backed Shenzhen Leopards30c451.92$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.02450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a15…e238backed Zhejiang Lions73c410.96$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.961450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec60…8ad8backed Shenzhen Leopards25c399.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3995…fe77backed Shenzhen Leopards27c383.56$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27ee…b517backed Shenzhen Leopards26c380.62$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.963243.8%14 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Zhejiang Lions55c366.67$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1652842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceca…4800backed Zhejiang Lions70c351.46$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.441241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98be…ce69backed Zhejiang Lions63c345.06$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.671450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x456a…6a90backed Zhejiang Lions46c339.28$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.211258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9825…9ffcbacked Zhejiang Lions46c331.64$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.64850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b75…c585backed Shenzhen Leopards7c299.86$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.99450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+92.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd96c…9db0backed Shenzhen Leopards17c279.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2843…0ac5backed Zhejiang Lions73c273.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.972100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88e2…f2dfbacked Zhejiang Lions70c253.19$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.96366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Shenzhen Leopards28c248.45$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.151225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Shenzhen Leopards25c247$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.743743.2%16 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed Shenzhen Leopards27c232.56$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.791145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16bd…ed47backed Shenzhen Leopards40c230$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.442646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid+70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x927a…f706backed Shenzhen Leopards30c228.66$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d4…884ebacked Shenzhen Leopards35c217.54$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.145642.9%24 W · 32 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Zhejiang Lions74c210.21$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.656162.3%38 W · 23 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Shenzhen Leopards40c200$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7910926.6%29 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5247…ece7backed Shenzhen Leopards28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Shenzhen Leopards40c200$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795446.3%25 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+18.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Shenzhen Leopards25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5027338.1%104 W · 169 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…96f0backed Shenzhen Leopards26c186.31$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.441275%9 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Shenzhen Leopards22c183$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.268453.6%45 W · 39 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+21.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x803a…1856backed Zhejiang Lions76c180.73$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.06616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-78.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d08…6e9bbacked Zhejiang Lions48c180.34$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.59887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.9wins+0.48per pick39cpaid+149.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7e34…63f7backed Zhejiang Lions76c176.54$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.933357.6%19 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Zhejiang Lions37c172.44$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.662466.7%16 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+38.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1570…de29backed Zhejiang Lions52c170.02$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.691942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9318…22b8backed Zhejiang Lions60c164.13$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.611844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked Zhejiang Lions76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.583458.8%20 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Zhejiang Lions44c126$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.036450%32 W · 32 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Shenzhen Leopards26c115.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304557.8%26 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8eb6…8e13backed Zhejiang Lions66c114.74$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.12650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+28%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Zhejiang Lions39c106.31$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.866137.7%23 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd4…7401backed Zhejiang Lions43c105.16$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.443336.4%12 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe720…2bb3backed Shenzhen Leopards29c103.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f0c…160cbacked Zhejiang Lions75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x293c…dcbabacked Zhejiang Lions53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+36.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94a5…4eb8backed Zhejiang Lions71c99.99$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2913751.1%70 W · 67 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Shenzhen Leopards26c99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.631050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Shenzhen Leopards38c94.84$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.81942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f7a…719bbacked Zhejiang Lions68c93.75$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf268…ab74backed Shenzhen Leopards32c86.06$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4079…7126backed Shenzhen Leopards36c85.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid+42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Zhejiang Lions72c85.35$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6819748.2%95 W · 102 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ae5…6079backed Zhejiang Lions69c83.92$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.141464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+26%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1ad…a4a5backed Zhejiang Lions75c82.27$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.575100%5 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd89d…d6b7backed Zhejiang Lions53c79.98$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.59728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-52.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed Shenzhen Leopards22c78.88$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.352846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22bc…b0b2backed Shenzhen Leopards28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6557…ec12backed Shenzhen Leopards42c71.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Shenzhen Leopards24c69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.771598.2%13 W · 146 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-66.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe14f…8581backed Shenzhen Leopards26c68.86$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf61d…caddbacked Shenzhen Leopards28c68.07$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Shenzhen Leopards25c67.96$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0621535.8%77 W · 138 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Shenzhen Leopards25c64.32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Zhejiang Lions65c63.48$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.271250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d15…8026backed Zhejiang Lions67c62.58$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.651163.6%7 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x286c…f34ebacked Shenzhen Leopards28c56.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3470…d8cebacked Zhejiang Lions55c53.29$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.98425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-54.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d45…c60ebacked Zhejiang Lions76c52.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.63250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x316f…795abacked Zhejiang Lions37c52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.761435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf5f…2184backed Zhejiang Lions43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3048…057fbacked Zhejiang Lions55c49.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.49933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3090…be73backed Shenzhen Leopards36c41.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.011346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Shenzhen Leopards27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.83644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.