TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Euroleague · resolved market

Zhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopards

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Zhejiang Lionsof Zhejiang Lions, Shenzhen Leopards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$132,510
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$172,893

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,510 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Euroleague
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x99d7…6435backed Shenzhen Leopards4c11,338$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.953345.5%15 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-3.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Shenzhen Leopards16c8,513$1,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,386.9735234.7%122 W · 230 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Zhejiang Lions72c7,203$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,002.555360.4%32 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Shenzhen Leopards20c3,786$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.4113046.2%60 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02c7…0927backed Zhejiang Lions71c3,039$2,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.911560%9 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed Shenzhen Leopards29c2,168$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.672842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Shenzhen Leopards30c2,009$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.34344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cf0…8b2bbacked Shenzhen Leopards13c2,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-59.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b50…1db2backed Shenzhen Leopards28c1,744$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Shenzhen Leopards1c1,629$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.541598.2%13 W · 146 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-66.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked Zhejiang Lions75c1,558$1,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.631643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Shenzhen Leopards13c1,520$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.7621535.8%77 W · 138 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e8a…a5bcbacked Shenzhen Leopards27c1,500$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.991030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5127…de1ebacked Shenzhen Leopards14c1,428$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-50%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Shenzhen Leopards7c1,399$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.825844.8%26 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Shenzhen Leopards9c1,196$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.834443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…884ebacked Shenzhen Leopards18c1,119$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.595642.9%24 W · 32 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Shenzhen Leopards32c999.95$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.9824430.3%74 W · 170 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf348…e543backed Shenzhen Leopards11c974.35$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.843823.7%9 W · 29 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-53.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x803a…1856backed Shenzhen Leopards8c941.2$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.62616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-78.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x456a…6a90backed Shenzhen Leopards20c900$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.051258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2cd…607ebacked Zhejiang Lions78c896.84$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.841384.6%11 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick76cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Shenzhen Leopards28c802.22$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.671637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d8e…5d6abacked Zhejiang Lions72c793.42$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.34560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+53.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Shenzhen Leopards17c772.21$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.754452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc5b…5443backed Zhejiang Lions71c704$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.16785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick66cpaid+31.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Zhejiang Lions71c628.05$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.2821444.4%95 W · 119 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Shenzhen Leopards15c602.37$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9643543.7%190 W · 245 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98be…ce69backed Zhejiang Lions80c600$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1201450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x278f…ef30backed Zhejiang Lions67c585.02$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.38633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-52.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Shenzhen Leopards29c558.69$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Shenzhen Leopards9c506.34$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.246844.1%30 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Zhejiang Lions70c500$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.021030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-55.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Shenzhen Leopards29c499.99$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1452133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0c…b626backed Shenzhen Leopards23c499.99$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf280…d801backed Shenzhen Leopards28c499.96$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f46…9097backed Shenzhen Leopards28c430$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+47.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0de…8048backed Zhejiang Lions72c416.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.671662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Shenzhen Leopards16c401.2$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8534344.3%152 W · 191 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4e4…a2ccbacked Zhejiang Lions69c401.2$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.37757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+49.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x817c…0817backed Shenzhen Leopards4c400$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16650%3 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+20.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Shenzhen Leopards16c386.77$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8131651.6%163 W · 153 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a3b…acdebacked Shenzhen Leopards26c369.08$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.981625%4 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-46.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed Shenzhen Leopards33c344.48$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.684245.2%19 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e6f…7248backed Shenzhen Leopards18c333.33$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xceca…4800backed Shenzhen Leopards29c331.03$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b16…7983backed Shenzhen Leopards23c320.83$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Shenzhen Leopards19c312.29$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.445648.2%27 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Shenzhen Leopards21c299.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633737.8%14 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+45.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7448…7ab1backed Shenzhen Leopards34c294.7$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-31.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Zhejiang Lions68c277.68$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.632458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Shenzhen Leopards30c269.83$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.9510634.9%37 W · 69 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52f2…5a5dbacked Zhejiang Lions68c261.47$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked Zhejiang Lions78c257.4$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.43458.8%20 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a15…e238backed Shenzhen Leopards28c214.29$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe054…14d1backed Shenzhen Leopards7c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.91353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+41.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bdc…3a4ebacked Zhejiang Lions71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+38.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x91dd…2730backed Zhejiang Lions76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-67.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1633…1e55backed Shenzhen Leopards15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f0c…160cbacked Shenzhen Leopards30c198.81$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.631553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed Shenzhen Leopards20c189.5$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.843060%18 W · 12 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0846…a401backed Shenzhen Leopards22c185.45$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+53.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d29…f683backed Zhejiang Lions70c176.66$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.761656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2490…aa08backed Shenzhen Leopards29c172.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9409…5b36backed Shenzhen Leopards27c160.6$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.925628.6%16 W · 40 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-14.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Shenzhen Leopards29c150.63$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.73743.2%16 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Zhejiang Lions67c150.37$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.624151.2%21 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe270…388ebacked Shenzhen Leopards21c148.62$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Shenzhen Leopards15c140.96$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.396747.8%32 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x976a…eee6backed Zhejiang Lions67c139.97$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.19757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Zhejiang Lions72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.891662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xabdd…cb3fbacked Shenzhen Leopards29c137.93$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403721.6%8 W · 29 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-29.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Shenzhen Leopards26c135.14$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.147138%27 W · 44 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Shenzhen Leopards26c135.14$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.145230.8%16 W · 36 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x42ac…7b70backed Shenzhen Leopards29c134.05$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.87333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49c8…3c52backed Shenzhen Leopards24c131.58$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.583342.4%14 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+10.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Shenzhen Leopards27c126.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.291145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Shenzhen Leopards16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010926.6%29 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4572…47e7backed Shenzhen Leopards29c120$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.81741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bea…c4b2backed Shenzhen Leopards14c116.35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.72450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Zhejiang Lions72c115.99$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.481540%6 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Shenzhen Leopards9c113.93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.256744.8%30 W · 37 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-30.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1400…765dbacked Shenzhen Leopards18c109.13$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.35425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-59.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b33…6778backed Zhejiang Lions68c106.35$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.03475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5839…3fa8backed Zhejiang Lions73c105.48$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.481080%8 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+35.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ae5…6079backed Zhejiang Lions68c104.52$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.91464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+26%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8642…47c8backed Zhejiang Lions67c102.95$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.971163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7609…4094backed Zhejiang Lions73c101.37$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.37250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dec…3302backed Shenzhen Leopards28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Shenzhen Leopards32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3213220.5%27 W · 105 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe720…2bb3backed Shenzhen Leopards28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2840%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8934…afb3backed Shenzhen Leopards20c99.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Shenzhen Leopards33c99.98$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.994045%18 W · 22 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-18.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x58a0…d943backed Shenzhen Leopards29c99.66$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Shenzhen Leopards18c97.18$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6557…ec12backed Shenzhen Leopards32c93.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc42…01b2backed Shenzhen Leopards28c85.93$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.06825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-64.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7346…5cf8backed Shenzhen Leopards28c83.94$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf99…74babacked Shenzhen Leopards29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-37%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2458…bd24backed Shenzhen Leopards29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+39.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.