NHL · resolved market
AHL: Cleveland Monsters vs. Toronto Marlies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf08bc4e97876980af41c5a2b9747f11a47bfb6e61e84990b038de762f12a9d14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Monstersof Cleveland Monsters, Toronto Marlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Cleveland Monsters | 46c | 1,720$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74bd…d371backed Toronto Marlies | 58c | 431.41$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Toronto Marlies | 53c | 322.75$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.06 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Toronto Marlies | 36c | 316.5$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.03 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Cleveland Monsters | 64c | 312$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed Cleveland Monsters | 41c | 261.46$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.26 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Toronto Marlies | 54c | 249.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.99 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Toronto Marlies | 54c | 185.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Toronto Marlies | 54c | 164.26$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Toronto Marlies | 53c | 111.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Cleveland Monsters | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4360…fad6backed Toronto Marlies | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Cleveland Monsters | 47c | 99.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 454 | 47.8%217 W · 237 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Toronto Marlies | 53c | 94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 159 | 44.7%71 W · 88 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Cleveland Monsters | 45c | 88.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78fd…4b88backed Toronto Marlies | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cleveland Monsters | 73c | 72.19$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e8…ffcabacked Toronto Marlies | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Cleveland Monsters | 58c | 68.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Toronto Marlies | 50c | 62.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58cc…2296backed Toronto Marlies | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Cleveland Monsters | 70c | 59.07$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Toronto Marlies | 53c | 56.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Toronto Marlies | 53c | 56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…8407backed Toronto Marlies | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Toronto Marlies | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +48%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Toronto Marlies | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Toronto Marlies | 54c | 44.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe720…2bb3backed Toronto Marlies | 50c | 40.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Toronto Marlies | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Toronto Marlies | 54c | 24.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Toronto Marlies | 54c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.