TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
ex-RUBYof Johnny Speeds, ex-RUBY
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,994
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,359

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,994 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked ex-RUBY54c4,078$2,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,863.255,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb51…d2f5backed Johnny Speeds46c4,033$1,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,855.072857.1%16 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+25%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Johnny Speeds30c2,409$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.623,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed ex-RUBY45c1,926$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.484958.3%495 W · 354 L+60.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xda1a…3407backed ex-RUBY52c1,774$931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.1528960.6%175 W · 114 L+14.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Johnny Speeds49c1,705$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.3927552%143 W · 132 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab96…989fbacked Johnny Speeds49c1,533$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.7822645.1%102 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Johnny Speeds54c1,335$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.522,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed ex-RUBY54c1,260$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.626054.2%141 W · 119 L-0.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b21…4b63backed ex-RUBY64c1,189$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.9911947.9%57 W · 62 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed ex-RUBY46c959.26$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.9865546.9%307 W · 348 L+18.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94a5…fa5abacked ex-RUBY52c900$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc84…04b2backed Johnny Speeds48c893$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.645444.4%24 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24d2…92c5backed ex-RUBY52c826.01$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.4812638.9%49 W · 77 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Johnny Speeds48c777.03$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.7975652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dad…4855backed Johnny Speeds46c750$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34510352.4%54 W · 49 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbe8…1141backed ex-RUBY46c718.26$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.867742.9%33 W · 44 L+0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed ex-RUBY53c703.77$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.872,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Johnny Speeds23c701.15$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.326,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56d6…4404backed ex-RUBY56c700$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.964058.1%372 W · 268 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd97…a2c9backed ex-RUBY55c697.84$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.983748.6%18 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed ex-RUBY65c697.71$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.7922750.2%114 W · 113 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked ex-RUBY52c580$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.9731451.6%162 W · 152 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51f9…26f8backed ex-RUBY46c519.26$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.41050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x218b…625abacked Johnny Speeds48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24022729.1%66 W · 161 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6566…1f93backed Johnny Speeds47c499.98$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed Johnny Speeds46c414.08$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.4849941.7%208 W · 291 L+2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed ex-RUBY46c384.13$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.4321545.6%98 W · 117 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed ex-RUBY52c377$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.965,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fbf…4605backed Johnny Speeds47c363.63$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.146747.8%32 W · 35 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e83…00aabacked Johnny Speeds48c322$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.5617142.1%72 W · 99 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ca4…aa92backed Johnny Speeds46c301.85$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.854551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed ex-RUBY75c299.99$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.761,21640.1%488 W · 728 L-65.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9095…b6cbbacked Johnny Speeds48c299$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.521330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-37.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x63c6…a5c9backed ex-RUBY51c294$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.0623146.3%107 W · 124 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x44c8…a9ffbacked ex-RUBY46c282.09$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.332835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x697e…9904backed Johnny Speeds39c258.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002272.7%16 W · 6 L+4.7wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+50%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x23b4…48dabacked Johnny Speeds30c256.41$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.9210942.2%46 W · 63 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked Johnny Speeds48c228$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4435947.9%172 W · 187 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb2e…cc6bbacked Johnny Speeds49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Johnny Speeds46c200.11$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.0527549.5%136 W · 139 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Johnny Speeds48c199.96$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.981,03839.9%414 W · 624 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8f…870ebacked ex-RUBY45c199.96$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.9822542.7%96 W · 129 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d1c…8408backed Johnny Speeds49c193.88$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959247.8%44 W · 48 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…2877backed Johnny Speeds46c188.43$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.6864854.3%352 W · 296 L+25.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x860e…bbdebacked Johnny Speeds39c188.17$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.31366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a4f…e6ffbacked Johnny Speeds48c184$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.322147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed Johnny Speeds54c182.33$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.461,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e6f…7248backed Johnny Speeds47c170.21$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803737.8%14 W · 23 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-22.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3109…ff47backed Johnny Speeds50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7518450%92 W · 92 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked ex-RUBY52c150$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.759137.4%34 W · 57 L-8.2wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x860d…3c72backed Johnny Speeds49c148$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.529549.5%47 W · 48 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e19…d2b0backed ex-RUBY46c145.65$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.6552750.7%267 W · 260 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Johnny Speeds27c145$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.354,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed Johnny Speeds48c135.42$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6541847.1%197 W · 221 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39e4…f089backed ex-RUBY41c125.37$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9732138.3%123 W · 198 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee2…c654backed ex-RUBY80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick60cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Johnny Speeds23c121.22$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.094,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Johnny Speeds51c112.72$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.491,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed Johnny Speeds54c110$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.474054.6%404 W · 336 L+15.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe720…2bb3backed Johnny Speeds48c110$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.83253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+37.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9209…b4d5backed Johnny Speeds48c106.56$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.643053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0335…6829backed Johnny Speeds47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505945.8%27 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe252…5714backed Johnny Speeds48c104.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9923335.2%82 W · 151 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Johnny Speeds46c103.3$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5284454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8670…b34bbacked ex-RUBY46c103.26$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.763148.4%15 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40fc…498dbacked Johnny Speeds49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014441%59 W · 85 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked ex-RUBY53c101.43$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.671,26246.9%592 W · 670 L-34.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbea…5b1abacked ex-RUBY54c101.28$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.59450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94a5…4eb8backed Johnny Speeds47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4720047.5%95 W · 105 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3329…6c52backed ex-RUBY70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302157.1%12 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa55c…1066backed ex-RUBY46c82$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2836649.5%181 W · 185 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed ex-RUBY50c82$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3599148.3%479 W · 512 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x526e…84e7backed Johnny Speeds25c81.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Johnny Speeds47c75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2554348.6%264 W · 279 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6df…588cbacked ex-RUBY52c74$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.528648.8%42 W · 44 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Johnny Speeds48c70.08$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.811,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ad…71acbacked Johnny Speeds49c69.39$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e7a…2c0abacked Johnny Speeds49c66.66$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.663444.1%15 W · 19 L-4.3wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-23.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e75…0143backed Johnny Speeds39c62.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.382941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b25…10aabacked ex-RUBY53c59.75$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1485054.4%462 W · 388 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb3d…58f5backed ex-RUBY54c59.07$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9937855.3%209 W · 169 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8da6…107abacked ex-RUBY52c57.69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6912948.8%63 W · 66 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0612…559abacked Johnny Speeds55c57$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3513556.3%76 W · 59 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa415…6fb9backed Johnny Speeds55c57$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3520055%110 W · 90 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a96…b382backed ex-RUBY53c54$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.147454.1%40 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8c8…7c4cbacked ex-RUBY52c53$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4432447.2%153 W · 171 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38b7…cfa7backed ex-RUBY65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.58058.8%47 W · 33 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Johnny Speeds47c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.528856.6%163 W · 125 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3795…fdd8backed ex-RUBY53c47.17$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.17366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+48.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05b7…c24abacked ex-RUBY53c44.22$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.787445.9%34 W · 40 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7894…7b9dbacked ex-RUBY54c43$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.784647.8%22 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked ex-RUBY51c38.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0233657.1%192 W · 144 L-12.6wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d31…07b0backed ex-RUBY52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.462556%14 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec7…ed98backed ex-RUBY54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.047550.7%38 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbced…5808backed Johnny Speeds55c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.814055%77 W · 63 L-0.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf95d…2ebdbacked ex-RUBY46c35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.93554.3%19 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Johnny Speeds32c33.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.535,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc007…a0edbacked Johnny Speeds48c33.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9320544.4%91 W · 114 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c38…fd63backed ex-RUBY65c32.3$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.317257.6%99 W · 73 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.