NHL · resolved market
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed3821a3eddfb763f99015e3965963f4826e3792ebcc8935976e1f358cf6123e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.98 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Under | 19c | 1,706$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,381.77 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 18c | 1,635$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.78 | 222 | 50.5%112 W · 110 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 936.69$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.78 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeff…68dbbacked Under | 80c | 926.88$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 41c | 903.85$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.74 | 119 | 33.6%40 W · 79 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…600ebacked Under | 23c | 818.98$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.11 | 270 | 44.4%120 W · 150 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 27c | 741.32$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.18 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 16c | 702.9$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.13 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x551d…9326backed Under | 22c | 555.39$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.55 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 65c | 500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Over | 72c | 499.99$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.99 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 67c | 489.99$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.18 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Under | 50c | 479.61$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.61 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Under | 58c | 440$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.65 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…7e67backed Under | 42c | 432.99$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 10c | 401$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 27c | 368.93$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 62c | 343.01$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.95 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 32c | 309.5$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.07 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 34c | 286.77$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 34c | 271.24$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.31 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 47c | 258$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.67 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 36c | 218.08$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 61c | 211.47$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.88 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Under | 29c | 174.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.87 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 69c | 164.69$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.45 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 70c | 145$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7102…9a7fbacked Under | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe720…2bb3backed Under | 19c | 130$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Over | 62c | 120.55$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 35c | 105.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.19 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 28c | 103.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.57 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb213…49e1backed Over | 53c | 93.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 22c | 90.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7349backed Over | 56c | 90.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 31c | 82.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +11.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 21c | 74.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.72 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 276 | 59.4%164 W · 112 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Over | 79c | 62.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 21c | 62.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 48c | 61.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 28c | 61.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Under | 60c | 59.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…a5d5backed Under | 68c | 58.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 24c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 78c | 50.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 44c | 45.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3de…e9bdbacked Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 71c | 37.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 30.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…21a9backed Over | 33c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b4…635abacked Under | 73c | 25.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…783cbacked Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -4.1wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…f5f9backed Over | 80c | 21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under | 59c | 17.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5this page
- Golden Knights vs. AvalancheGolden Knights won
- Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5Under won
- Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5Under won
- Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.