TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x36d0…8dce

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
330
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: MLB, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category MLB at 56 out of 100; worst Commodities at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT18046.7%84 W · 96 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 180 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.86
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.08
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5)backed Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$285
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$46
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$114
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanesbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)backed Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$208.84
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$421Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+113.9%+$479.3
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$219Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+37%+$81
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)backed Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.35
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+100%+$50
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$476Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+68.2%+$324.26
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$146
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$48
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)backed Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$114
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$57
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$123.99
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+47.6%+$36.42
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)backed Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$58
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanesbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$284.99
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+38.1%+$69
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+99.5%+$46.92
Showing 25 of 180 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3520%7 W · 28 L-5.5wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-65.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Commodities — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$387Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$387.33
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.67
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.53
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$162
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.97
Will gas hit (Low) $4.25 by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+45.3%+$38.68
Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$454Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$454.11
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.1
Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$121.24
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$68
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$359Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$359
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$300.69
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$314Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$314
Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.5
Will gas hit (Low) $3.95 by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.44
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$92
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.81
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.74
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.07
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.22
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$399Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$399.18
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST2334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+35%+$51.82
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$132
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$117.56
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$120.48
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$138
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$64
Iran nuclear test in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$394Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$394.34
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$324Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$324
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$91.86
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$175.4
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$132.5
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$299.45
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$825Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+94.1%+$775.5
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$684Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+187.4%+$1,281.3
Will Iran declare war on Israel by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
Israel strikes Iranian oil in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT+246%+$125.45
Iran strike on Israel in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+143.9%+$29.5
Israel strike on Tehran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+254.3%+$99.63
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+147.2%+$65.5
Israel military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+90.8%+$119
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$11.5
All 23 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Sep 7, 2025, EDT1827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+203%+$67
US Open: Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcarazbacked Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$28
US Open: Alcaraz vs. Sinner – Over 40.5 Games?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$55
US Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Amanda Anisimovabacked Anisimova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
US Open: Jannik Sinner vs Felix Auger Aliassimebacked Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.8
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.8
US Open: Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcarazbacked Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$54
US Open: Naomi Osaka vs Amanda Anisimovabacked Anisimova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$284Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT+111.3%+$316
US Open: Novak Djokovic vs Taylor Fritzbacked Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$96
US Open: Elena Rybakina vs Marketa Vondrousovabacked Rybakina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$39
US Open: Novak Djokovic vs Jan Lennard Struffbacked Struff · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$34
US Open: Tomas Machac vs Taylor Fritzbacked Machac · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
US Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Taylor Townsendbacked Townsend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.01
US Open: Alexander Zverev vs Felix Auger Aliassimebacked Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+420%+$242.31
US Open: Nuno Borges vs. Tommy Paulbacked Paul · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT+57.5%+$93.05
US Open: Reilly Opelka vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfiabacked Opelka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$170.5
US Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Yoshihito Nishiokabacked Nishioka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.03
US Open: Novak Djokovic vs Learner Tienbacked Tien · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$453Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$453.4
All 18 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST1353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
MLB — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+96.1%+$24.5
Dodgers vs. Blue Jaysbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$43
Blue Jays vs. Dodgersbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$128
Blue Jays vs. Dodgersbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+187.3%+$273.8
Blue Jays vs. Dodgersbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$96.12
Dodgers vs. Blue Jaysbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+94.2%+$92.67
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 National League Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+194.1%+$33
Brewers vs. Cubsbacked Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$33
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.8
Cubs vs. Brewersbacked Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$65.12
Dodgers vs. Philliesbacked Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Red Sox vs. Yankeesbacked Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$147
Padres vs. Cubsbacked Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.4
All 13 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 15, 2025, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+116.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$55
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$90
U.S. forces in Gaza before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.5
US military action against Iran by Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+1,225.1%+$896.8
US military action against Iran by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$108.1
US military action against Iran before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$408Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+126.9%+$517.68
US military action against Iran by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+638.9%+$575
US military action against Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$141
Gavin Newsom arrested by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$240.23
LA curfew enacted by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT+66.9%+$66.92
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
Gold missing from Fort Knox?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Trump releases Epstein list today?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST+35.1%+$10.4
All 13 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-73.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$116
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Trump and Taylor Swift shake hands at Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$13
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Super Bowl LIX Winnerbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$45
Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST-100%-$79.98
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST-100%-$45
Will the Rams win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$65
Rams vs. Eaglesbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$75
Commanders vs. Lionsbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+248.1%+$112.2
Texans vs. Chiefsbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST-100%-$25
All 13 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-47.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump withdraw the U.S. from NATO in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.2
Russian strike on a NATO member by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Will Trump meet with Putin by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.5
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Zelensky wear suit next Trump meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
US lifts Russia sanctions before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Trump cuts Ukraine aid before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST+65.1%+$48.36
Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+208.8%+$32.68
Will Zelenskyy apologize to Trump by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$19.5
All 9 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT90%0 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Golf — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$53
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.2
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.09
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.8
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.99
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.49
Will Rory McIlroy win The 2025 Masters?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST60%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST60%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dogecoin above $0.25 on February 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST+83.4%+$20.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$38.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump post about Sam Altman by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$335Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$334.66
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.