Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Reilly Opelka vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed9598cfd53682155941a138ffc0f7ef66cd3b7c925728332062e7747f2e5c43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Garfiaof Opelka, Garfia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05bf…1ab0backed Opelka | 7c | 28,303$1,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,842.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56f…75efbacked Opelka | 6c | 19,125$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.51 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f5…1d41backed Opelka | 7c | 12,729$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Opelka | 5c | 8,242$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Opelka | 5c | 7,818$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.81 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…5471backed Opelka | 6c | 6,500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +182.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Opelka | 1c | 5,801$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Opelka | 5c | 5,456$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.79 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Opelka | 4c | 4,392$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.58 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Opelka | 6c | 3,111$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.43 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Opelka | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Opelka | 6c | 2,750$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Opelka | 5c | 1,942$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.11 | 158 | 32.9%52 W · 106 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Opelka | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Opelka | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Opelka | 3c | 1,185$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Opelka | 5c | 1,168$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Opelka | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Opelka | 6c | 495$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Opelka | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 512 | 43%220 W · 292 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Opelka | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Opelka | 6c | 200.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70d2…f395backed Opelka | 6c | 175$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…cfecbacked Opelka | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.