TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc56f…75ef

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
51
Categories scored
3
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: UFC, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 53 out of 100; worst NFL at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Sep 7, 2025, EDT4330.2%13 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$3,300Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$3,046.15
US Open: Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcarazbacked Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$15,221Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$17,163.64
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2025 US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$4,523Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,522.61
US Open: Jannik Sinner vs Felix Auger Aliassimebacked Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$3,374Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,374.45
US Open: Naomi Osaka vs Amanda Anisimovabacked Osaka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$4,997Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,997.5
US Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegulabacked Pegula · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,999Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,999
US Open: Felix Auger Aliassime vs Alex de Minaurbacked Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,029Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT+133.7%+$1,375.6
US Open: Jannik Sinner vs Lorenzo Musettibacked Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$5,650Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,649.9
US Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osakabacked Muchova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11,426Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$11,425.95
US Open: Amanda Anisimova vs Iga Swiatekbacked Anisimova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$2,402Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2025, EDT+376.2%+$9,035.53
US Open: Novak Djokovic vs Taylor Fritzbacked Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$22,649Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$22,648.63
US Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Marketa Vondrousovabacked Vondrousova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,656Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,655.87
US Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Carlos Alcarazbacked Lehecka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$5,045Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,044.65
US Open: Amanda Anisimova vs Beatriz Haddad Maiabacked Maia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$6,307Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$6,307.09
Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$4,579Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,578.69
US Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Bublikbacked Bublik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$14,120Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$14,119.72
US Open: Felix Auger Aliassime vs Andrey Rublevbacked Rublev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,999Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,999
US Open: Elena Rybakina vs Marketa Vondrousovabacked Vondrousova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$3,897Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+196.8%+$7,671.09
US Open: Tomas Machac vs Taylor Fritzbacked Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$7,384Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$3,016
US Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Taylor Townsendbacked Krejcikova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$7,093Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+154.4%+$10,949.61
US Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Jiri Leheckabacked Mannarino · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$7,350Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$7,350.08
US Open: Alexander Bublik vs Tommy Paulbacked Bublik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11,299Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$10,429.66
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$8,681Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$8,681
US Open: Amanda Anisimova vs Jaqueline Cristianbacked Cristian · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$611Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$610.53
US Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Alex de Minaurbacked Altmaier · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$3,999Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,999.2
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Aug 23, 2025, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+46.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Sep 8, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ravens vs. Billsbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$5,029Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,028.64
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.