UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Sumudaerji vs. Borjas

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae47ae337f6164c885744748b1d849955dbd692655f51d9ba8f488290af41075

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Sumudaerjiof Sumudaerji, Borjas
Resolved: Aug 23, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $53,703
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $58,012

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,703 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe38e…c29dbacked Sumudaerji	59c	20,196$11,977 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,218.78	148	57.4%85 W · 63 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Borjas	41c	8,871$3,637 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,637.21	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Borjas	35c	6,932$2,439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,439.44	59	50.8%30 W · 29 L	+5.3wins	+0.09per pick	42cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Borjas	39c	5,689$2,219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,218.61	47	44.7%21 W · 26 L	-3.0wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Borjas	38c	3,413$1,297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,296.79	195	44.6%87 W · 108 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ee1…9801backed Sumudaerji	60c	2,825$1,699 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,125.71	25	64%16 W · 9 L	+2.8wins	+0.11per pick	53cpaid	+50.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed Borjas	40c	2,630$1,048 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,047.62	111	40.5%45 W · 66 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Sumudaerji	61c	2,500$1,525 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$975	64	51.6%33 W · 31 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Borjas	40c	2,420$961 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$961.05	169	51.5%87 W · 82 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Sumudaerji	62c	1,905$1,181 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$723.98	53	56.6%30 W · 23 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc56f…75efbacked Sumudaerji	62c	1,871$1,160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$711.29	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+46.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Sumudaerji	59c	1,761$1,041 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$720.17	184	53.8%99 W · 85 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Sumudaerji	61c	1,600$976 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$624	30	66.7%20 W · 10 L	+2.6wins	+0.09per pick	58cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Borjas	41c	1,500$611 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$610.74	209	54.1%113 W · 96 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebc3…2626backed Borjas	39c	1,000$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390	82	56.1%46 W · 36 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Borjas	39c	999.99$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390	515	33.6%173 W · 342 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc202…2afdbacked Borjas	40c	990$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.4	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Sumudaerji	61c	820$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$319.8	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Sumudaerji	61c	819.99$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$319.8	178	50%89 W · 89 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Borjas	41c	788.3$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.2	121	34.7%42 W · 79 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Borjas	40c	731.98$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.79	49	53.1%26 W · 23 L	+3.8wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Sumudaerji	59c	666$393 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$273.06	252	51.2%129 W · 123 L	+9.1wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f2a…2aaebacked Sumudaerji	61c	655.67$399 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$257.05	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2105…c514backed Borjas	7c	595$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.95	56	32.1%18 W · 38 L	+4.6wins	+0.08per pick	24cpaid	+7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed Borjas	39c	586.07$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.57	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	+36.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Sumudaerji	60c	500$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	226	61.9%140 W · 86 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Borjas	36c	449.99$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162	539	56.6%305 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce34…565abacked Borjas	40c	375$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Borjas	25c	305.99$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.14	192	30.7%59 W · 133 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Borjas	41c	300$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123	399	59.6%238 W · 161 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Borjas	39c	300$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118	287	43.9%126 W · 161 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Borjas	40c	300$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.14	339	48.1%163 W · 176 L	-16.2wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Borjas	40c	250$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	355	39.4%140 W · 215 L	-19.1wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Borjas	41c	243.9$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Borjas	22c	228.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.14	210	31.9%67 W · 143 L	-7.4wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Sumudaerji	61c	200$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.5	149	29.5%44 W · 105 L	-15.2wins	-0.10per pick	40cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Borjas	38c	186$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.68	235	37%87 W · 148 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Sumudaerji	60c	180.65$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.26	78	41%32 W · 46 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ceb…b516backed Sumudaerji	61c	180$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.2	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.13per pick	57cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Borjas	11c	167.01$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.9	169	55.6%94 W · 75 L	+23.8wins	+0.14per pick	42cpaid	+59.8%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0xb46f…c0b9backed Sumudaerji	61c	163.93$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.93	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe016…424bbacked Borjas	33c	152.53$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	89	32.6%29 W · 60 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Sumudaerji	62c	136$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.68	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Borjas	40c	125$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	324	31.8%103 W · 221 L	-9.6wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Borjas	40c	119.17$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.67	88	51.1%45 W · 43 L	+4.5wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf826…cd1abacked Borjas	41c	109.73$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.99	77	37.7%29 W · 48 L	-7.4wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked Sumudaerji	60c	103.9$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.9	115	45.2%52 W · 63 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1cd…a252backed Borjas	39c	102.2$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22c7…ca3ebacked Sumudaerji	61c	100.34$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.13	57	36.8%21 W · 36 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Sumudaerji	59c	100$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41	122	62.3%76 W · 46 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Sumudaerji	61c	97$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.83	202	49%99 W · 103 L	+6.0wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Sumudaerji	60c	90$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36	564	50.5%285 W · 279 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Borjas	41c	85.66$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	246	49.6%122 W · 124 L	+14.2wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Sumudaerji	74c	85$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.1	111	54.1%60 W · 51 L	+4.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Borjas	40c	62.5$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	111	38.7%43 W · 68 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xabd0…0619backed Borjas	41c	53.66$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.17per pick	57cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Sumudaerji	61c	51.64$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.14	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b19…ac2ebacked Borjas	40c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	31	32.3%10 W · 21 L	-2.5wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x71f3…bb5cbacked Borjas	41c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.3	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7879…751ebacked Borjas	41c	48.78$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	61cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e27…73c5backed Borjas	41c	46.68$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.14	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf8…7f09backed Borjas	41c	40$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.4	140	52.1%73 W · 67 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed Sumudaerji	60c	33$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.2	121	47.1%57 W · 64 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f6…8160backed Sumudaerji	61c	32.79$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.79	48	47.9%23 W · 25 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…d596backed Sumudaerji	62c	30$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.4	15	60%9 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x749e…8626backed Sumudaerji	61c	28.47$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.02	78	59%46 W · 32 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd263…54a7backed Borjas	40c	27.41$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.96	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5037…a863backed Borjas	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	110	54.5%60 W · 50 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39b2…7b5ebacked Borjas	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe07c…551dbacked Sumudaerji	61c	24.59$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.59	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-5.6wins	-0.16per pick	55cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xac61…be42backed Sumudaerji	61c	24.59$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.59	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb46c…42b5backed Sumudaerji	61c	22.95$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.95	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	70cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Sumudaerji	57c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.6	221	44.3%98 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Sumudaerji	60c	16.97$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.79	420	42.6%179 W · 241 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

UFC Fight Night: Sumudaerji vs. Borjasthis page
UFC Fight Night: Kavanagh vs. JohnsonJohnson won
UFC Fight Night: Long vs. YouYou won
UFC Fight Night: Maheshate vs. YoungYoung won
UFC Fight Night: Nueraji vs. CrosbieNueraji won
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. SterlingSterling won
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Cortes-AcostaPavlovich won
UFC Fight Night: Pereira vs. DaukausDaukaus won
UFC Fight Night: Rongzhu vs. HubbardRongzhu won
UFC Fight Night: Satybaldiev vs. NurgozhaySatybaldiev won
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. ZhangWalker won
UFC Fight Night: Yizha vs. WilsonYizha won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

UFC Fight Night: Sumudaerji vs. Borjas

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event