UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Satybaldiev vs. Nurgozhay
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x904c2b63df92e951684dd04b7ea60340f7efb543d06a9897d130bd46c8984dd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Satybaldievof Satybaldiev, Nurgozhay
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Nurgozhay | 1c | 7,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Nurgozhay | 51c | 3,125$1,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.17 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked Satybaldiev | 49c | 1,755$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.17 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Satybaldiev | 49c | 1,114$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.42 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked Nurgozhay | 50c | 555$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.5 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Satybaldiev | 48c | 431.74$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.81 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Satybaldiev | 54c | 390$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.3 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Satybaldiev | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Satybaldiev | 48c | 297.93$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.92 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Nurgozhay | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Satybaldiev | 48c | 225.66$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.6 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce34…565abacked Satybaldiev | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Nurgozhay | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nurgozhay | 48c | 181.08$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.49 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Nurgozhay | 44c | 176$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.84 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Satybaldiev | 59c | 172$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.52 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…fabbbacked Nurgozhay | 41c | 156$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Nurgozhay | 53c | 125.66$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Nurgozhay | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Nurgozhay | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…2ffabacked Nurgozhay | 52c | 88.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Nurgozhay | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Satybaldiev | 51c | 76.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Satybaldiev | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc9…2b7ebacked Nurgozhay | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Satybaldiev | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78f2…51a1backed Nurgozhay | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Nurgozhay | 52c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1337…2b45backed Satybaldiev | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…551dbacked Nurgozhay | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…7f09backed Satybaldiev | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Satybaldiev | 48c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9d…c956backed Satybaldiev | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 229 | 53.3%122 W · 107 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x749e…8626backed Satybaldiev | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Satybaldiev vs. Nurgozhaythis page
- UFC Fight Night: Kavanagh vs. JohnsonJohnson won
- UFC Fight Night: Long vs. YouYou won
- UFC Fight Night: Maheshate vs. YoungYoung won
- UFC Fight Night: Nueraji vs. CrosbieNueraji won
- UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. SterlingSterling won
- UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Cortes-AcostaPavlovich won
- UFC Fight Night: Pereira vs. DaukausDaukaus won
- UFC Fight Night: Rongzhu vs. HubbardRongzhu won
- UFC Fight Night: Sumudaerji vs. BorjasSumudaerji won
- UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. ZhangWalker won
- UFC Fight Night: Yizha vs. WilsonYizha won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.