UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Long vs. You

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d051d1bb5494a918ab4f0fcf02d5be25a81c4aa3ccf77ba8a4f9429bc4deb5f

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: You of Long , You
Resolved: Aug 23, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $50,759
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $54,354

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,759 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2b15…9b08backed You	68c	20,397$13,781 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,615.97	291	51.9%151 W · 140 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Long	34c	9,255$3,112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,112.33	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Long	38c	7,790$2,973 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,972.64	104	43.3%45 W · 59 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-21%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f76…3e05backed Long	33c	5,407$1,784 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,784.19	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fa0…7894backed You	57c	4,322$2,462 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,860.46	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+1.5wins	+0.16per pick	62cpaid	+22.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Long	3c	4,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+291.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f2a…2aaebacked Long	44c	2,545$1,115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,114.75	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3d…351dbacked You	55c	2,236$1,230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,005.54	120	55.8%67 W · 53 L	-4.0wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Long	43c	2,200$954 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$954	209	54.1%113 W · 96 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Long	43c	1,782$767 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$766.81	38	31.6%12 W · 26 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed You	57c	1,755$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$754.65	169	51.5%87 W · 82 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Long	45c	1,131$504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$503.98	137	35.8%49 W · 88 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d64…5c93backed You	56c	1,095$614 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480.25	14	78.6%11 W · 3 L	+4.8wins	+0.34per pick	44cpaid	+97%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked You	55c	1,021$562 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$459.45	178	50%89 W · 89 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed You	55c	1,000$550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$450	420	42.6%179 W · 241 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf80b…fa00backed Long	44c	999.98$435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$434.99	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf838…2aa0backed You	54c	709.55$386 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$323.55	13	76.9%10 W · 3 L	+2.0wins	+0.15per pick	62cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf9e…239fbacked Long	47c	638.3$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	25	36%9 W · 16 L	-3.4wins	-0.13per pick	49cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5ee1…9801backed Long	46c	635.6$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.1	25	64%16 W · 9 L	+2.8wins	+0.11per pick	53cpaid	+50.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Long	43c	592.03$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.7	221	44.3%98 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Long	44c	533.97$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.53	235	37%87 W · 148 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Long	46c	500$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	67	46.3%31 W · 36 L	-6.4wins	-0.10per pick	56cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5532…c6dbbacked Long	44c	497.45$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.88	60	31.7%19 W · 41 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	39cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb045…d4cebacked You	56c	446.43$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196.43	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked You	56c	420.71$236 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.11	515	33.6%173 W · 342 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed You	14c	395.12$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$339.8	61	9.8%6 W · 55 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x765b…1a00backed You	57c	350.88$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150.88	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.29per pick	71cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaade…64eabacked Long	45c	334.85$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.52	41	39%16 W · 25 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x211a…9613backed You	56c	248.08$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.08	89	39.3%35 W · 54 L	-6.8wins	-0.08per pick	47cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Long	43c	227.95$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.02	141	44.7%63 W · 78 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed You	57c	200$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.6	399	59.6%238 W · 161 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed Long	45c	178$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.1	121	47.1%57 W · 64 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce34…565abacked You	57c	176.25$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.25	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed You	57c	175.44$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.44	355	39.4%140 W · 215 L	-19.1wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8c1…8d10backed You	59c	168.7$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.7	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-2.2wins	-0.17per pick	47cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Long	48c	150$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	366	55.2%202 W · 164 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Long	44c	149.98$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.99	339	48.1%163 W · 176 L	-16.2wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Long	45c	145.44$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.45	367	45.8%168 W · 199 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Long	17c	130.7$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.42	43	48.8%21 W · 22 L	+4.1wins	+0.10per pick	39cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Long	46c	130.19$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.19	287	43.9%126 W · 161 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf66…e823backed Long	41c	110.84$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.44	248	47.2%117 W · 131 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd353…2ffabacked Long	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe016…424bbacked You	57c	87.72$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.72	89	32.6%29 W · 60 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed You	55c	81.17$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.17	246	49.6%122 W · 124 L	+14.2wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2337…2b5fbacked You	54c	80.99$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.26	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad2f…cff5backed Long	43c	79.07$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1337…2b45backed Long	42c	73$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.82	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-4.2wins	-0.23per pick	51cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Long	44c	68.18$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	324	31.8%103 W · 221 L	-9.6wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x624d…d225backed You	56c	67$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.17	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.22per pick	45cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d7…538abacked Long	44c	65.2$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.69	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0174…f66fbacked You	56c	60$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.4	100	43%43 W · 57 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ba6…af21backed You	57c	57.51$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.73	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.13per pick	53cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Long	44c	57.5$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.09	210	31.9%67 W · 143 L	-7.4wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Long	44c	56$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.88	192	30.7%59 W · 133 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Long	45c	55.56$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	111	38.7%43 W · 68 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked You	56c	54.34$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.01	115	45.2%52 W · 63 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Long	36c	51.58$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.66	59	45.8%27 W · 32 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf8…7f09backed You	52c	42$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.1	140	52.1%73 W · 67 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2388…377ebacked You	60c	41.76$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.76	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…e834backed Long	44c	41.7$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.35	81	43.2%35 W · 46 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84e2…8f1dbacked You	58c	34.48$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.48	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.42per pick	58cpaid	+72.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed You	55c	30.18$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.58	47	44.7%21 W · 26 L	-3.0wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb39e…5182backed You	55c	29.09$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.09	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+1.4wins	+0.09per pick	44cpaid	+29.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b19…ac2ebacked You	44c	26.13$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.63	31	32.3%10 W · 21 L	-2.5wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6884…2518backed Long	45c	24.44$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-2.7wins	-0.22per pick	39cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0ba4…c08bbacked You	67c	21.78$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.19	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf826…cd1abacked You	70c	21.29$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.29	77	37.7%29 W · 48 L	-7.4wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked You	56c	21.13$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.29	136	47.8%65 W · 71 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71f3…bb5cbacked You	56c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.9	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

UFC Fight Night: Long vs. Youthis page
UFC Fight Night: Kavanagh vs. JohnsonJohnson won
UFC Fight Night: Maheshate vs. YoungYoung won
UFC Fight Night: Nueraji vs. CrosbieNueraji won
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. SterlingSterling won
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Cortes-AcostaPavlovich won
UFC Fight Night: Pereira vs. DaukausDaukaus won
UFC Fight Night: Rongzhu vs. HubbardRongzhu won
UFC Fight Night: Satybaldiev vs. NurgozhaySatybaldiev won
UFC Fight Night: Sumudaerji vs. BorjasSumudaerji won
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. ZhangWalker won
UFC Fight Night: Yizha vs. WilsonYizha won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

UFC Fight Night: Long vs. You

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event