UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Pereira vs. Daukaus

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb870e3ed8f7ef7a951169e3f8b9e2de3dc63f84454385cbafd0b9a6884bbda05

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Daukausof Pereira, Daukaus
Resolved: Aug 23, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $27,450
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $30,582

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,450 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ce8…4527backed Daukaus	32c	5,631$1,801 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,829.86	47	44.7%21 W · 26 L	-3.0wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Pereira	7c	3,428$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.96	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+291.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Pereira	68c	3,182$2,164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,163.86	195	44.6%87 W · 108 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed Pereira	1c	3,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	34	2.9%1 W · 33 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Daukaus	30c	1,889$568 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,321.58	148	57.4%85 W · 63 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc56f…75efbacked Pereira	70c	1,859$1,301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,301.15	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+46.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Pereira	72c	1,400$1,008 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,007.99	169	51.5%87 W · 82 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf80b…fa00backed Daukaus	30c	1,300$394 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$905.78	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Pereira	1c	1,076$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.76	61	9.8%6 W · 55 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Pereira	1c	1,076$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.76	50	12%6 W · 44 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+272.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Pereira	71c	942.62$666 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$665.65	318	55%175 W · 143 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Pereira	68c	800$544 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$544	178	50%89 W · 89 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Daukaus	28c	691.02$193 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$497.53	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	+3.7wins	+0.25per pick	42cpaid	+61%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Daukaus	28c	580$162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$417.6	122	62.3%76 W · 46 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked Daukaus	29c	521.28$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$371.36	89	39.3%35 W · 54 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Pereira	68c	500$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	67	46.3%31 W · 36 L	-6.4wins	-0.10per pick	56cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc202…2afdbacked Daukaus	31c	500$155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$345	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb045…d4cebacked Pereira	69c	489.29$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Daukaus	30c	473.03$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$332.98	184	53.8%99 W · 85 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Daukaus	29c	334.14$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$237.24	85	44.7%38 W · 47 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Pereira	68c	324$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.32	366	55.2%202 W · 164 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Pereira	68c	300$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	399	59.6%238 W · 161 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6579…088bbacked Pereira	73c	273.97$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.5wins	-0.41per pick	58cpaid	-77.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Pereira	70c	242.86$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	227	53.3%121 W · 106 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf66…e823backed Daukaus	27c	232$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$169.36	248	47.2%117 W · 131 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Pereira	69c	217.39$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Pereira	69c	200$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138	539	56.6%305 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Pereira	69c	188.34$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.95	104	43.3%45 W · 59 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-21%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf14…03cdbacked Pereira	68c	149.12$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.4	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+56.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Pereira	68c	147.06$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	355	39.4%140 W · 215 L	-19.1wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0186…defdbacked Pereira	70c	143.59$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.51	43	55.8%24 W · 19 L	+6.6wins	+0.15per pick	40cpaid	+45.2%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Daukaus	31c	143$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.67	125	41.6%52 W · 73 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fd9…f0d5backed Pereira	70c	142.86$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	32	62.5%20 W · 12 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	71cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xce34…565abacked Pereira	70c	142.86$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf1cd…a252backed Pereira	70c	107.14$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked Daukaus	29c	105.55$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.97	115	45.2%52 W · 63 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Pereira	67c	99.99$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.5	339	48.1%163 W · 176 L	-16.2wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5879…bb5dbacked Daukaus	32c	93.75$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.75	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+2.9wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+42.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f2a…2aaebacked Pereira	69c	88.52$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.08	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd353…2ffabacked Pereira	70c	84.1$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.87	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36bc…ec72backed Daukaus	31c	83.87$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.87	158	48.1%76 W · 82 L	+9.1wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	+10%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xade5…0299backed Daukaus	34c	79.41$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.41	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.14per pick	44cpaid	+22.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Daukaus	34c	74.26$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.26	111	38.7%43 W · 68 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6884…2518backed Pereira	69c	72.48$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-2.7wins	-0.22per pick	39cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Daukaus	31c	72.46$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	235	37%87 W · 148 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf826…cd1abacked Pereira	69c	72.05$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	77	37.7%29 W · 48 L	-7.4wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb8a7…8f05backed Pereira	69c	71.01$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	58	39.7%23 W · 35 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	+1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xea81…30b5backed Daukaus	33c	60.61$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.61	283	33.2%94 W · 189 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0174…f66fbacked Pereira	72c	60$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.2	100	43%43 W · 57 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x602d…3534backed Pereira	68c	51.47$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	47	63.8%30 W · 17 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	61cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…d596backed Pereira	70c	50$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	15	60%9 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1337…2b45backed Pereira	66c	47$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.02	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-4.2wins	-0.23per pick	51cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Daukaus	30c	47$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.79	192	30.7%59 W · 133 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x749e…8626backed Daukaus	33c	45.45$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.45	78	59%46 W · 32 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Daukaus	29c	42.25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	210	31.9%67 W · 143 L	-7.4wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Pereira	71c	42.25$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf8…7f09backed Pereira	62c	42$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.96	140	52.1%73 W · 67 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Daukaus	27c	41.97$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.64	148	27%40 W · 108 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Daukaus	30c	35.3$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.71	420	42.6%179 W · 241 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x614b…5845backed Daukaus	32c	31.25$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.25	38	34.2%13 W · 25 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2cb9…595cbacked Pereira	68c	16.18$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	+25%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

UFC Fight Night: Pereira vs. Daukausthis page
UFC Fight Night: Kavanagh vs. JohnsonJohnson won
UFC Fight Night: Long vs. YouYou won
UFC Fight Night: Maheshate vs. YoungYoung won
UFC Fight Night: Nueraji vs. CrosbieNueraji won
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. SterlingSterling won
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Cortes-AcostaPavlovich won
UFC Fight Night: Rongzhu vs. HubbardRongzhu won
UFC Fight Night: Satybaldiev vs. NurgozhaySatybaldiev won
UFC Fight Night: Sumudaerji vs. BorjasSumudaerji won
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. ZhangWalker won
UFC Fight Night: Yizha vs. WilsonYizha won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

UFC Fight Night: Pereira vs. Daukaus

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event