UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Sterling
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b607047698c485944dccc3eedbe620885808e3bf61a09bf943fcbdf279c0481
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sterling of Ortega , Sterling
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $560,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $604,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $560,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Ortega | 48c | 122,781$58,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58,784.79 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Sterling | 74c | 45,000$33,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,770.49 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…b07cbacked Ortega | 26c | 38,169$9,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,886.68 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc9…2b7ebacked Sterling | 75c | 30,707$23,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,676.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Sterling | 72c | 29,678$21,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,221.92 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Ortega | 33c | 27,035$8,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,938.95 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x991a…2411backed Sterling | 52c | 20,000$10,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,600 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Sterling | 71c | 18,912$13,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,459.61 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Ortega | 20c | 16,712$3,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,347.23 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Ortega | 7c | 13,874$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.48 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc56f…75efbacked Ortega | 20c | 12,330$2,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,424.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…e99bbacked Sterling | 70c | 12,000$8,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,600 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Ortega | 38c | 11,899$4,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,534.6 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdb…7ea3backed Sterling | 79c | 10,920$8,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,293.21 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Ortega | 48c | 10,880$5,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,219.74 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61bf…647ebacked Sterling | 79c | 9,785$7,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,055.51 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 62cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Sterling | 75c | 9,430$7,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,367.52 | 122 | 62.3%76 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f05…c0b8backed Sterling | 52c | 9,336$4,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,464.05 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Sterling | 58c | 7,487$4,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,149.76 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Ortega | 26c | 7,244$1,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,908.2 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Sterling | 54c | 5,200$2,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,395.3 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…613ebacked Sterling | 72c | 5,000$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d8…012abacked Ortega | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7784…5b6dbacked Sterling | 55c | 4,500$2,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,025 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Sterling | 70c | 4,030$2,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Ortega | 19c | 4,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Sterling | 71c | 3,789$2,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.14 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Sterling | 54c | 3,130$1,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,446.9 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Ortega | 18c | 3,125$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.53 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Ortega | 20c | 3,050$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Sterling | 73c | 3,014$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.78 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Sterling | 73c | 3,000$2,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Sterling | 51c | 2,963$1,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,447.62 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +61%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb594…caeebacked Sterling | 74c | 2,752$2,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…106abacked Sterling | 73c | 2,735$2,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.56 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…5c56backed Sterling | 74c | 2,700$1,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.45 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Ortega | 22c | 2,422$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.54 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Ortega | 49c | 2,420$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180.35 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…8a04backed Ortega | 23c | 2,296$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.32 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbffc…1f45backed Ortega | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Sterling | 73c | 2,000$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc3…2626backed Sterling | 69c | 2,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Ortega | 20c | 1,977$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.11 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Ortega | 22c | 1,965$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.91 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed Ortega | 41c | 1,963$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.13 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +9.5wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Sterling | 79c | 1,800$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.99 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Sterling | 71c | 1,760$1,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.4 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…ca3ebacked Sterling | 80c | 1,710$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.4 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb045…d4cebacked Sterling | 72c | 1,694$1,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.99 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Sterling | 79c | 1,543$1,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Ortega | 19c | 1,500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Ortega | 17c | 1,500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Ortega | 21c | 1,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Sterling | 68c | 1,471$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.59 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc202…2afdbacked Ortega | 19c | 1,460$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.39 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…fabbbacked Sterling | 73c | 1,398$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.46 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…c186backed Ortega | 17c | 1,345$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.73 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Ortega | 25c | 1,260$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.26 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2b…97b2backed Ortega | 16c | 1,200$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Sterling | 67c | 1,134$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.43 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Ortega | 11c | 1,100$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Ortega | 17c | 1,013$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.79 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Ortega | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Sterling | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Sterling | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Ortega | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…403ebacked Ortega | 18c | 988.89$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Ortega | 7c | 920.76$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x105a…20e8backed Sterling | 73c | 920.27$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee1…9801backed Sterling | 77c | 883.48$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.12 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Ortega | 8c | 875.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Ortega | 21c | 864.67$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.65 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Sterling | 77c | 864.56$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Ortega | 17c | 793.02$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.31 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Sterling | 67c | 665.99$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.78 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…3de2backed Ortega | 33c | 615.15$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46f…c0b9backed Ortega | 19c | 602.78$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Sterling | 78c | 601.76$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.53 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…e617backed Ortega | 16c | 502.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.38 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…3608backed Sterling | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf635…e876backed Ortega | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Ortega | 13c | 486.89$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae5…53c8backed Sterling | 73c | 485.7$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.57 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb45d…a406backed Sterling | 79c | 485$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.85 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2337…2b5fbacked Ortega | 17c | 472.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebd4…4bfcbacked Ortega | 23c | 435$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Ortega | 5c | 399.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Sterling | 60c | 381.91$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.76 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked Ortega | 18c | 380.94$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.57 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe385…54bcbacked Sterling | 73c | 352.18$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.61 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Ortega | 27c | 273.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.97 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6579…088bbacked Sterling | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 58cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c1…8d10backed Sterling | 71c | 265.85$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.85 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1511…4ceebacked Sterling | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0174…f66fbacked Ortega | 18c | 258.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Sterling | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce34…565abacked Ortega | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Ortega | 27c | 243.46$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…ec72backed Ortega | 19c | 233.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x052b…625fbacked Ortega | 23c | 218.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Sterlingthis page
- UFC Fight Night: Kavanagh vs. JohnsonJohnson won
- UFC Fight Night: Long vs. YouYou won
- UFC Fight Night: Maheshate vs. YoungYoung won
- UFC Fight Night: Nueraji vs. CrosbieNueraji won
- UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Cortes-AcostaPavlovich won
- UFC Fight Night: Pereira vs. DaukausDaukaus won
- UFC Fight Night: Rongzhu vs. HubbardRongzhu won
- UFC Fight Night: Satybaldiev vs. NurgozhaySatybaldiev won
- UFC Fight Night: Sumudaerji vs. BorjasSumudaerji won
- UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. ZhangWalker won
- UFC Fight Night: Yizha vs. WilsonYizha won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.