UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Yizha vs. Wilson
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcf290591e9b295098d591e331b4e5837a713510a76577e4d7a591b995335ad5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yizhaof Yizha, Wilson
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86e7…613ebacked Wilson | 9c | 11,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Wilson | 10c | 3,066$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.63 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x624d…d225backed Wilson | 11c | 1,504$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Wilson | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Wilson | 10c | 979$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.01 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Wilson | 13c | 978.03$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.02 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1511…4ceebacked Wilson | 10c | 971.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Wilson | 8c | 958.5$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked Wilson | 13c | 876.46$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.94 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb045…d4cebacked Wilson | 14c | 706.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked Wilson | 10c | 695.71$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.57 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaade…64eabacked Wilson | 15c | 687.2$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.08 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce34…565abacked Wilson | 12c | 667.62$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee1…9801backed Wilson | 10c | 541$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60ff…5ec3backed Wilson | 21c | 412.5$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.53 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Wilson | 13c | 384.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6579…088bbacked Wilson | 16c | 375$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 58cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Wilson | 11c | 364.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Wilson | 10c | 342.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf826…cd1abacked Wilson | 13c | 271.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…377ebacked Wilson | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1cd…a252backed Wilson | 13c | 228.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Wilson | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c77…ad93backed Wilson | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed Wilson | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Wilson | 14c | 175.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Wilson | 12c | 163.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…2e90backed Wilson | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Wilson | 11c | 136.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b48…09e4backed Wilson | 9c | 112$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Wilson | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x257d…aac8backed Wilson | 15c | 74.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Yizha vs. Wilsonthis page
- UFC Fight Night: Kavanagh vs. JohnsonJohnson won
- UFC Fight Night: Long vs. YouYou won
- UFC Fight Night: Maheshate vs. YoungYoung won
- UFC Fight Night: Nueraji vs. CrosbieNueraji won
- UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. SterlingSterling won
- UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Cortes-AcostaPavlovich won
- UFC Fight Night: Pereira vs. DaukausDaukaus won
- UFC Fight Night: Rongzhu vs. HubbardRongzhu won
- UFC Fight Night: Satybaldiev vs. NurgozhaySatybaldiev won
- UFC Fight Night: Sumudaerji vs. BorjasSumudaerji won
- UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. ZhangWalker won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.