UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Kavanagh vs. Johnson

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52d7411af44b8595349fcbf77592bf0554adba888bd4a04f4bfd86e2a3b27164

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Johnson of Kavanagh, Johnson
Resolved: Aug 23, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $71,073
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $81,142

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,073 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe38e…c29dbacked Kavanagh	68c	14,572$9,909 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,908.87	148	57.4%85 W · 63 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed Johnson	34c	12,004$4,049 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,954.6	111	40.5%45 W · 66 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed Kavanagh	1c	12,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	34	2.9%1 W · 33 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc56f…75efbacked Johnson	32c	11,161$3,572 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,589.63	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+46.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Kavanagh	67c	6,436$4,326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,325.96	47	44.7%21 W · 26 L	-3.0wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Kavanagh	65c	4,507$2,938 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,938.5	178	51.7%92 W · 86 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Johnson	32c	3,565$1,136 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,429.2	178	50%89 W · 89 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Johnson	51c	2,900$1,489 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,411.33	235	37%87 W · 148 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Johnson	20c	2,768$545 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,223.05	209	54.1%113 W · 96 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Kavanagh	68c	2,432$1,662 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,661.76	184	53.8%99 W · 85 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Kavanagh	4c	2,420$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.8	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+291.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Kavanagh	73c	1,801$1,309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,309.08	291	51.9%151 W · 140 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Kavanagh	64c	1,575$1,014 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,014.3	169	51.5%87 W · 82 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Johnson	31c	1,555$485 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,069.71	221	44.3%98 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e2b…97b2backed Johnson	31c	1,500$465 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,034.99	77	45.5%35 W · 42 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x80d6…d716backed Kavanagh	70c	1,011$707 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$707.4	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Johnson	31c	1,004$315 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$688.65	515	33.6%173 W · 342 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb46f…c0b9backed Johnson	32c	972.31$311 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$661.29	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf80b…fa00backed Kavanagh	69c	847.28$580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$580.39	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Kavanagh	70c	763.8$535 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$534.66	309	64.7%200 W · 109 L	+24.5wins	+0.08per pick	57cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Johnson	32c	750$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$510	53	56.6%30 W · 23 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2a…2aaebacked Johnson	30c	746.23$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$522.36	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x982b…983cbacked Kavanagh	66c	744$491 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$491.04	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	62cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ee1…9801backed Kavanagh	69c	732.89$506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505.7	25	64%16 W · 9 L	+2.8wins	+0.11per pick	53cpaid	+50.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Kavanagh	67c	625$417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416.96	339	48.1%163 W · 176 L	-16.2wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Kavanagh	68c	616.67$419 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$419.34	122	62.3%76 W · 46 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Johnson	35c	600$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$390	540	56.7%306 W · 234 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Kavanagh	69c	559.52$386 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$386.07	420	42.6%179 W · 241 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Kavanagh	68c	505$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.4	85	44.7%38 W · 47 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Johnson	35c	500$173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$327	287	43.9%126 W · 161 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc202…2afdbacked Kavanagh	72c	500$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358.07	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc3d…351dbacked Kavanagh	80c	500$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	120	55.8%67 W · 53 L	-4.0wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x821d…0a01backed Kavanagh	70c	484.82$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.37	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.70per pick	70cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Johnson	32c	310$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210.8	399	59.6%238 W · 161 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6579…088bbacked Kavanagh	65c	307.69$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.5wins	-0.41per pick	58cpaid	-77.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbf14…03cdbacked Johnson	32c	305.28$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$207.59	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+56.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd36…aac2backed Kavanagh	66c	303.03$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.19per pick	69cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce34…565abacked Johnson	33c	303.03$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$203.03	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Johnson	32c	300$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204	228	53.1%121 W · 107 L	-7.5wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb045…d4cebacked Kavanagh	69c	288.41$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe016…424bbacked Johnson	34c	257.1$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.1	89	32.6%29 W · 60 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf66…e823backed Johnson	31c	232$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160.08	248	47.2%117 W · 131 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Johnson	30c	162$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.76	192	30.7%59 W · 133 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda10…ffeabacked Johnson	31c	161.29$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.29	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Johnson	31c	160.46$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.46	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Kavanagh	70c	142.2$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	355	39.4%140 W · 215 L	-19.1wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fd9…f0d5backed Kavanagh	71c	141.3$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	32	62.5%20 W · 12 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	71cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0174…f66fbacked Johnson	36c	113$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.32	100	43%43 W · 57 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked Johnson	33c	102.99$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69	115	45.2%52 W · 63 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Johnson	36c	100$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64	148	27%40 W · 108 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…d596backed Johnson	32c	100$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68	15	60%9 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Johnson	32c	78.13$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.13	111	38.7%43 W · 68 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d7…538abacked Johnson	32c	78.13$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.13	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Kavanagh	65c	76.92$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	324	31.8%103 W · 221 L	-9.6wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Kavanagh	68c	73.59$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.04	210	31.9%67 W · 143 L	-7.4wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf058…e173backed Kavanagh	71c	70.42$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	134	65.7%88 W · 46 L	+10.1wins	+0.08per pick	58cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed Johnson	31c	70$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.3	121	47.1%57 W · 64 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea81…30b5backed Johnson	31c	64.52$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.52	283	33.2%94 W · 189 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked Johnson	36c	64.02$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.97	89	39.3%35 W · 54 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ad1…8c20backed Kavanagh	64c	60$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.4	78	56.4%44 W · 34 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x749e…8626backed Kavanagh	70c	54.65$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.99	78	59%46 W · 32 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x602d…3534backed Kavanagh	69c	50.72$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	47	63.8%30 W · 17 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	61cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf8…7f09backed Johnson	32c	50$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34	140	52.1%73 W · 67 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7879…751ebacked Kavanagh	71c	43.42$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.83	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	61cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5696…b3aabacked Kavanagh	65c	40$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	55	50.9%28 W · 27 L	-3.1wins	-0.06per pick	57cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe523…f087backed Kavanagh	64c	31.01$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	191	52.9%101 W · 90 L	+14.4wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ec2…a000backed Kavanagh	65c	30.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	60cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f6…8160backed Kavanagh	70c	21.43$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	48	47.9%23 W · 25 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac61…be42backed Kavanagh	71c	21.11$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Kavanagh	64c	20$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	564	50.5%285 W · 279 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf9d…c956backed Kavanagh	66c	20$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	229	53.3%122 W · 107 L	+8.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

UFC Fight Night: Kavanagh vs. Johnsonthis page
UFC Fight Night: Long vs. YouYou won
UFC Fight Night: Maheshate vs. YoungYoung won
UFC Fight Night: Nueraji vs. CrosbieNueraji won
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. SterlingSterling won
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Cortes-AcostaPavlovich won
UFC Fight Night: Pereira vs. DaukausDaukaus won
UFC Fight Night: Rongzhu vs. HubbardRongzhu won
UFC Fight Night: Satybaldiev vs. NurgozhaySatybaldiev won
UFC Fight Night: Sumudaerji vs. BorjasSumudaerji won
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. ZhangWalker won
UFC Fight Night: Yizha vs. WilsonYizha won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

UFC Fight Night: Kavanagh vs. Johnson

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event