TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Cortes-Acosta

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pavlovichof Pavlovich, Acosta
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$141,276
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$145,617

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,276 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1117…3532backed Pavlovich69c20,000$13,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,20019544.6%87 W · 108 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Acosta 32c15,508$4,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,960.6429151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Acosta 30c11,567$3,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,465.797841%32 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Acosta 31c10,000$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1006451.6%33 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f76…3e05backed Acosta 29c8,820$2,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,588.143655.6%20 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x843d…e617backed Pavlovich69c7,526$5,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,333.021154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Pavlovich69c7,056$4,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,160.971662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebc3…2626backed Acosta 29c6,500$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.988256.1%46 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39cb…46e8backed Pavlovich69c5,071$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,571.275955.9%33 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Acosta 30c4,894$1,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,478.465950.8%30 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7eed…5a28backed Acosta 33c4,475$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,455.376829.4%20 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ee1…9801backed Pavlovich69c4,346$2,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,363.242564%16 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+50.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed Acosta 30c4,345$1,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,315.454533.3%15 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid+20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Pavlovich70c3,424$2,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,018.3521554.4%117 W · 98 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed Acosta 31c3,339$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.2311140.5%45 W · 66 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Acosta 29c3,050$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.535826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Pavlovich69c3,000$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9301060%6 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Pavlovich71c2,882$2,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.493066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Pavlovich70c2,867$2,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.9635253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Acosta 29c2,503$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.7842042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Pavlovich70c2,500$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7502657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb045…d4cebacked Acosta 32c2,313$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7503342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Pavlovich70c2,143$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.8830964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Pavlovich69c2,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6204953.1%26 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Pavlovich71c2,000$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58013650%68 W · 68 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Acosta 31c1,996$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.946349.2%31 W · 32 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+27.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xebed…97bebacked Acosta 31c1,910$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.51250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc56f…75efbacked Pavlovich69c1,850$1,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+46.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Acosta 27c1,729$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.6423537%87 W · 148 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x35fc…db55backed Pavlovich71c1,603$1,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.092045%9 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-16.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Pavlovich70c1,430$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42916951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc202…2afdbacked Pavlovich71c1,410$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.91241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2105…c514backed Acosta 24c1,391$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.815632.1%18 W · 38 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed Acosta 30c1,268$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.378220.7%17 W · 65 L-12.6wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-48%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x3ae5…53c8backed Pavlovich67c1,200$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3965253.8%28 W · 24 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+23.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d04…7a5fbacked Pavlovich67c1,149$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.231478.6%11 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.24per pick55cpaid+69.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Acosta 31c1,075$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.2412134.7%42 W · 79 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Pavlovich69c1,000$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31536745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Pavlovich69c999.99$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3108348.2%40 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd986…1320backed Acosta 30c999.98$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.991850%9 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Pavlovich68c999.95$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.986746.3%31 W · 36 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Acosta 32c937.5$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30029848.7%145 W · 153 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0635…0119backed Pavlovich70c906.83$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.131471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Pavlovich68c894.1$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.111566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+61%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2766…4c94backed Acosta 9c832.9$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.781163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f50…4db9backed Acosta 28c800$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2243357.6%19 W · 14 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+42.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfeec…aa69backed Acosta 30c800$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2403275%24 W · 8 L+9.5wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+84.9%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Pavlovich68c799.98$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.248749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed Acosta 30c799.96$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.992740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+36.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Pavlovich69c729.99$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.317850%89 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Acosta 29c693.48$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.0520249%99 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Pavlovich68c608.49$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.7214857.4%85 W · 63 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Pavlovich69c500$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.58751.7%45 W · 42 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb46f…c0b9backed Acosta 31c500$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1552642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed Pavlovich68c499.99$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16011761.5%72 W · 45 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Acosta 29c480$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.222144.3%98 W · 123 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd19e…fabbbacked Pavlovich67c476$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.081662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+39.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Pavlovich71c427.88$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.7631855%175 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked Acosta 30c400$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1208939.3%35 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f2a…2aaebacked Pavlovich70c395.04$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.513441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+2.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Acosta 29c374.91$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.1218453.8%99 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Acosta 30c366.67$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11051533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2467…c702backed Acosta 32c366.25$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.210045%45 W · 55 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Acosta 30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10035539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1cd…a252backed Acosta 31c321.05$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce34…565abacked Acosta 32c314.46$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x36bc…ec72backed Acosta 24c305.38$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7315848.1%76 W · 82 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Pavlovich68c300$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.533948.1%163 W · 176 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Pavlovich68c300$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9614144.7%63 W · 78 L-0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fd9…f0d5backed Pavlovich70c283.7$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.73262.5%20 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick71cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x468f…c2a7backed Pavlovich71c281.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.6914045.7%64 W · 76 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe09f…4ad6backed Pavlovich71c281.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.691855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Pavlovich69c280$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.856450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Acosta 32c260$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.239959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Acosta 30c248.61$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.520954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2d6…a89fbacked Pavlovich72c227.11$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.661163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0679…bebbbacked Pavlovich69c217.39$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.397258.3%42 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Acosta 29c201$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3919230.7%59 W · 133 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Acosta 32c200$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6328743.9%126 W · 161 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3d…351dbacked Acosta 27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5412055.8%67 W · 53 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcaab…24ddbacked Pavlovich69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7d1…cd5ebacked Pavlovich71c169.01$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.011758.8%10 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf826…cd1abacked Acosta 30c166.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.987737.7%29 W · 48 L-7.4wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-29.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7d5d…91d8backed Pavlovich75c163$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-34%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a06…69fabacked Pavlovich69c160$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick56cpaid+49.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e2d…4323backed Pavlovich69c155.39$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.176451.6%33 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x88c4…fbf0backed Acosta 32c150$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486633.3%22 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed Pavlovich68c150$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4822342.2%94 W · 129 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fda…588dbacked Pavlovich67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.25450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Acosta 30c149$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.714929.5%44 W · 105 L-15.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfe9d…9d46backed Pavlovich69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.93683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick68cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d94…92c9backed Pavlovich70c144.37$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.312040%8 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-41.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Pavlovich70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8622753.3%121 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc35…d905backed Pavlovich70c141.13$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.342050%10 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x146a…36fabacked Pavlovich70c141.11$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.337552%39 W · 36 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x576f…e28cbacked Pavlovich71c140.35$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.72100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+170.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8306…ecc9backed Pavlovich70c139.86$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.962356.5%13 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a9…32a7backed Pavlovich71c137.83$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.97666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8c1…8d10backed Pavlovich67c134.1$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.251330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-53.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ceb…b516backed Pavlovich68c133$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.561070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.