UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Rongzhu vs. Hubbard

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb93741b01450c55a372eb28304ca59fc9c54ac2ababeb9a09a6cd246e4bfa3a

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Rongzhuof Rongzhu, Hubbard
Resolved: Aug 23, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $37,658
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $46,428

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,658 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x477f…6c45backed Hubbard	19c	4,647$875 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$875.48	277	43%119 W · 158 L	+9.7wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fa0…7894backed Rongzhu	73c	2,568$1,875 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$693.36	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+1.5wins	+0.16per pick	62cpaid	+22.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Hubbard	22c	2,459$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540.23	235	37%87 W · 148 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Hubbard	26c	2,418$629 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$628.76	195	44.6%87 W · 108 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Rongzhu	72c	2,342$1,686 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$655.69	104	47.1%49 W · 55 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb045…d4cebacked Rongzhu	74c	2,027$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$527.03	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Hubbard	27c	1,927$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520.25	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Hubbard	28c	1,631$456 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$455.63	178	50%89 W · 89 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed Hubbard	28c	1,555$435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.4	88	35.2%31 W · 57 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Hubbard	28c	1,500$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$425	67	46.3%31 W · 36 L	-6.4wins	-0.10per pick	56cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Rongzhu	72c	1,400$1,008 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$392	169	51.5%87 W · 82 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ceb…b516backed Hubbard	29c	1,215$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.35	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.13per pick	57cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Rongzhu	72c	1,100$792 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$308	47	44.7%21 W · 26 L	-3.0wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Rongzhu	74c	1,000$740 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$260	399	59.6%238 W · 161 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Hubbard	27c	1,000$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	137	35.8%49 W · 88 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xebc3…2626backed Rongzhu	71c	1,000$710 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$290	82	56.1%46 W · 36 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Rongzhu	73c	961.38$703 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$258.78	298	48.7%145 W · 153 L	-10.7wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Rongzhu	73c	932$680 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$251.64	148	57.4%85 W · 63 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Rongzhu	66c	666$440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$226.44	252	51.2%129 W · 123 L	+9.1wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc202…2afdbacked Hubbard	27c	650$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.5	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Hubbard	27c	612.87$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.92	221	44.3%98 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Hubbard	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	104	43.3%45 W · 59 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-21%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f2a…2aaebacked Hubbard	27c	443.7$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.8	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Hubbard	27c	433.33$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117	515	33.6%173 W · 342 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Hubbard	28c	400$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	287	43.9%126 W · 161 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked Hubbard	28c	400$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	89	39.3%35 W · 54 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Hubbard	28c	357.14$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	355	39.4%140 W · 215 L	-19.1wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3751…7dfdbacked Rongzhu	71c	338.93$241 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.29	61	42.6%26 W · 35 L	-5.8wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb8a7…8f05backed Hubbard	28c	326.43$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.4	58	39.7%23 W · 35 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	+1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed Rongzhu	72c	310.83$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.18	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Rongzhu	74c	270.27$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.27	226	53.1%120 W · 106 L	-7.4wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fd9…f0d5backed Rongzhu	74c	270.27$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.27	32	62.5%20 W · 12 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	71cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Rongzhu	71c	249.99$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.5	226	61.9%140 W · 86 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf66…e823backed Hubbard	26c	223.97$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.23	248	47.2%117 W · 131 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Rongzhu	74c	200$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed Hubbard	10c	170$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.1	223	42.2%94 W · 129 L	-9.1wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed Rongzhu	73c	163$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.01	121	47.1%57 W · 64 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab43…f7b3backed Rongzhu	74c	162.16$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.16	160	58.8%94 W · 66 L	+7.9wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+12%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Rongzhu	72c	154.75$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.04	339	48.1%163 W · 176 L	-16.2wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Hubbard	27c	150$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.5	367	45.8%168 W · 199 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd48…b205backed Rongzhu	72c	150$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42	6	100%6 W · 0 L	+1.5wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+34.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce34…565abacked Rongzhu	74c	135.14$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.14	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6884…2518backed Hubbard	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-2.7wins	-0.22per pick	39cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Hubbard	27c	100$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	148	27%40 W · 108 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Hubbard	18c	98$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.72	192	30.7%59 W · 133 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Hubbard	28c	89.75$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	111	38.7%43 W · 68 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf80b…fa00backed Hubbard	26c	75.15$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.54	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Hubbard	27c	73.61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	324	31.8%103 W · 221 L	-9.6wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…e834backed Hubbard	27c	73.53$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.85	81	43.2%35 W · 46 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…2e90backed Hubbard	28c	71.43$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	48%12 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Rongzhu	74c	47.47$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.34	318	55%175 W · 143 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0174…f66fbacked Rongzhu	75c	45$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.25	100	43%43 W · 57 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e27…73c5backed Rongzhu	74c	40.54$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.54	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Hubbard	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	184	53.8%99 W · 85 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f6…8160backed Rongzhu	74c	33.78$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.78	48	47.9%23 W · 25 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7284…ea5dbacked Rongzhu	76c	26.38$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.38	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	64cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x749e…8626backed Rongzhu	73c	20.55$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.55	78	59%46 W · 32 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9287…41f2backed Rongzhu	72c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.6	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	71cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e94…db47backed Rongzhu	75c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	113	64.6%73 W · 40 L	+6.3wins	+0.06per pick	59cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Rongzhu	70c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6	167	36.5%61 W · 106 L	-7.1wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cf8…7f09backed Rongzhu	74c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.2	140	52.1%73 W · 67 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

UFC Fight Night: Rongzhu vs. Hubbardthis page
UFC Fight Night: Kavanagh vs. JohnsonJohnson won
UFC Fight Night: Long vs. YouYou won
UFC Fight Night: Maheshate vs. YoungYoung won
UFC Fight Night: Nueraji vs. CrosbieNueraji won
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. SterlingSterling won
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Cortes-AcostaPavlovich won
UFC Fight Night: Pereira vs. DaukausDaukaus won
UFC Fight Night: Satybaldiev vs. NurgozhaySatybaldiev won
UFC Fight Night: Sumudaerji vs. BorjasSumudaerji won
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. ZhangWalker won
UFC Fight Night: Yizha vs. WilsonYizha won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

UFC Fight Night: Rongzhu vs. Hubbard

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event