UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Maheshate vs. Young

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x568050d5516c3a20bcf68bc8fe2596b76ab2e9a0efdeef34211ba79473b8f775

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Young of Maheshate, Young
Resolved: Aug 23, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $48,217
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $51,833

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,217 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2b15…9b08backed Young	77c	22,327$17,141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,186.32	291	51.9%151 W · 140 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Maheshate	10c	7,045$731 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$731.38	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Maheshate	42c	6,600$2,772 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,772	104	43.3%45 W · 59 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-21%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x80d6…d716backed Maheshate	18c	5,000$917 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$917.24	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Maheshate	13c	3,000$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.5	209	54.1%113 W · 96 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Young	57c	2,414$1,376 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,038.07	195	44.6%87 W · 108 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Maheshate	49c	2,050$1,005 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,004.5	169	51.5%87 W · 82 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Maheshate	42c	1,970$817 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$817.37	221	44.3%98 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Maheshate	45c	1,670$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	53	56.6%30 W · 23 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Maheshate	43c	1,200$516 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$516	309	64.7%200 W · 109 L	+24.5wins	+0.08per pick	57cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed Maheshate	12c	1,115$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.62	88	35.2%31 W · 57 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd986…1320backed Maheshate	42c	1,000$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Young	51c	941.36$480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$461.27	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	+3.7wins	+0.25per pick	42cpaid	+61%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Young	58c	738.33$428 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$310.1	178	50%89 W · 89 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Young	53c	684.19$360 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$324.58	184	53.8%99 W · 85 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Maheshate	45c	639.26$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.88	235	37%87 W · 148 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Maheshate	43c	581.4$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	515	33.6%173 W · 342 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9e…239fbacked Young	57c	526.32$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$226.32	25	36%9 W · 16 L	-3.4wins	-0.13per pick	49cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb045…d4cebacked Young	60c	500.19$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200.19	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc202…2afdbacked Young	59c	499.14$294 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204.65	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5532…c6dbbacked Maheshate	41c	499.14$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.65	60	31.7%19 W · 41 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	39cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Young	53c	498.51$264 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$234.73	43	48.8%21 W · 22 L	+4.1wins	+0.10per pick	39cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Young	58c	472$274 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$198.24	125	41.6%52 W · 73 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Maheshate	42c	450$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189	367	45.8%168 W · 199 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Maheshate	46c	449.98$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.99	339	48.1%163 W · 176 L	-16.2wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf80b…fa00backed Maheshate	41c	441.62$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.07	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb46f…c0b9backed Maheshate	32c	432.92$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146a…36fabacked Young	59c	424.27$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174.27	75	52%39 W · 36 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Maheshate	45c	417.11$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.04	287	43.9%126 W · 161 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6579…088bbacked Maheshate	50c	403.17$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.5wins	-0.41per pick	58cpaid	-77.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked Young	51c	398.33$203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$195.18	89	39.3%35 W · 54 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f2a…2aaebacked Maheshate	42c	389.81$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.11	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce34…565abacked Maheshate	13c	384.62$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Young	54c	370.37$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.37	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Maheshate	42c	315.07$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.33	487	49.1%239 W · 248 L	-8.3wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2105…c514backed Maheshate	4c	300$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	56	32.1%18 W · 38 L	+4.6wins	+0.08per pick	24cpaid	+7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Maheshate	42c	299.99$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.45	539	56.6%305 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Maheshate	41c	284.22$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.53	65	33.8%22 W · 43 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x230a…2704backed Maheshate	42c	277.38$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.77	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-3.1wins	-0.14per pick	55cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa198…106abacked Young	52c	275.9$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.43	20	55%11 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Young	59c	261.86$154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.68	355	39.4%140 W · 215 L	-19.1wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ee1…9801backed Young	54c	250.93$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.43	25	64%16 W · 9 L	+2.8wins	+0.11per pick	53cpaid	+50.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Maheshate	43c	244.19$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6884…2518backed Maheshate	25c	160$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-2.7wins	-0.22per pick	39cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Maheshate	42c	129.49$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.39	399	59.6%238 W · 161 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Maheshate	24c	115$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.43	192	30.7%59 W · 133 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…d596backed Young	59c	100$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.9	15	60%9 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd353…2ffabacked Young	57c	100$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf826…cd1abacked Maheshate	48c	95.63$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.25	77	37.7%29 W · 48 L	-7.4wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x54b5…2e90backed Young	55c	90.91$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.91	25	48%12 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x749e…8626backed Maheshate	42c	86.28$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.86	78	59%46 W · 32 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb49d…fdefbacked Young	59c	84.73$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.74	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf66…e823backed Young	50c	80$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	248	47.2%117 W · 131 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5696…b3aabacked Young	55c	74.1$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.38	55	50.9%28 W · 27 L	-3.1wins	-0.06per pick	57cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed Young	53c	73.13$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.37	67	55.2%37 W · 30 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe016…424bbacked Young	59c	70.57$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.97	89	32.6%29 W · 60 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb32…b21ebacked Maheshate	48c	68.54$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.9	63	54%34 W · 29 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed Young	52c	68.54$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.9	158	39.2%62 W · 96 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Young	52c	68.54$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.9	280	43.2%121 W · 159 L	+10.6wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f4b…aba8backed Young	52c	59.54$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.58	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.3wins	+0.27per pick	33cpaid	+69.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Maheshate	42c	59.52$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	111	38.7%43 W · 68 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b12…be00backed Maheshate	42c	59.52$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x602d…3534backed Young	60c	58.33$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.33	47	63.8%30 W · 17 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	61cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36bc…ec72backed Young	52c	57.69$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.69	158	48.1%76 W · 82 L	+9.1wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	+10%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Young	60c	50$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	324	31.8%103 W · 221 L	-9.6wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e27…73c5backed Maheshate	43c	46.51$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb01…f1c9backed Young	80c	42.96$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.59	24	75%18 W · 6 L	+3.6wins	+0.15per pick	60cpaid	+29%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed Young	57c	40$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.2	121	47.1%57 W · 64 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked Maheshate	49c	36.03$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.65	119	42.9%51 W · 68 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7f6…8160backed Maheshate	42c	35.71$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	48	47.9%23 W · 25 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1337…2b45backed Maheshate	43c	27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.61	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-4.2wins	-0.23per pick	51cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe523…f087backed Maheshate	48c	20.8$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	191	52.9%101 W · 90 L	+14.4wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9b19…ac2ebacked Maheshate	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	31	32.3%10 W · 21 L	-2.5wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf9d…c956backed Young	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	229	53.3%122 W · 107 L	+8.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc90…a076backed Young	58c	19.98$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.39	48	58.3%28 W · 20 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

UFC Fight Night: Maheshate vs. Youngthis page
UFC Fight Night: Kavanagh vs. JohnsonJohnson won
UFC Fight Night: Long vs. YouYou won
UFC Fight Night: Nueraji vs. CrosbieNueraji won
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. SterlingSterling won
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Cortes-AcostaPavlovich won
UFC Fight Night: Pereira vs. DaukausDaukaus won
UFC Fight Night: Rongzhu vs. HubbardRongzhu won
UFC Fight Night: Satybaldiev vs. NurgozhaySatybaldiev won
UFC Fight Night: Sumudaerji vs. BorjasSumudaerji won
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. ZhangWalker won
UFC Fight Night: Yizha vs. WilsonYizha won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

UFC Fight Night: Maheshate vs. Young

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event