UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Nueraji vs. Crosbie
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf420ff9e8e68752b0bca58324584aea549c6bfd71b3b13f639c01d4925544f16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuerajiof Nueraji, Crosbie
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Crosbie | 22c | 21,359$4,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,609.6 | 281 | 43.1%121 W · 160 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Nueraji | 78c | 20,000$15,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,400 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Crosbie | 19c | 15,809$3,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,048.03 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…ca3ebacked Crosbie | 19c | 3,836$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.35 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Crosbie | 17c | 2,886$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.6 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nueraji | 80c | 2,862$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.94 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f05…c0b8backed Crosbie | 18c | 2,629$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.02 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Crosbie | 18c | 2,306$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.02 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Crosbie | 20c | 2,050$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Nueraji | 70c | 1,500$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Nueraji | 78c | 1,405$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.08 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Crosbie | 19c | 1,336$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Crosbie | 30c | 1,285$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.1 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…ed41backed Crosbie | 14c | 1,234$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.4 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -12.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Crosbie | 17c | 1,154$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.6 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Crosbie | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Crosbie | 20c | 700$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Crosbie | 19c | 500.46$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.32 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Crosbie | 17c | 500.02$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.67 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Nueraji | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc202…2afdbacked Crosbie | 18c | 450$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.46 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Nueraji | 80c | 449.99$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Crosbie | 16c | 289.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Crosbie | 18c | 281.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Crosbie | 20c | 252$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…2518backed Crosbie | 21c | 192.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb46f…c0b9backed Crosbie | 18c | 171.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Crosbie | 17c | 166.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd48…b205backed Nueraji | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…106abacked Crosbie | 40c | 136$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Crosbie | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Crosbie | 15c | 132.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Crosbie | 19c | 128.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c77…ad93backed Crosbie | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Crosbie | 19c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…351dbacked Nueraji | 79c | 99.47$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Crosbie | 20c | 99.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Crosbie | 30c | 91.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 158 | 39.2%62 W · 96 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad1…8c20backed Nueraji | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Crosbie | 23c | 65.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71e9…6d43backed Crosbie | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Nueraji vs. Crosbiethis page
- UFC Fight Night: Kavanagh vs. JohnsonJohnson won
- UFC Fight Night: Long vs. YouYou won
- UFC Fight Night: Maheshate vs. YoungYoung won
- UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. SterlingSterling won
- UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Cortes-AcostaPavlovich won
- UFC Fight Night: Pereira vs. DaukausDaukaus won
- UFC Fight Night: Rongzhu vs. HubbardRongzhu won
- UFC Fight Night: Satybaldiev vs. NurgozhaySatybaldiev won
- UFC Fight Night: Sumudaerji vs. BorjasSumudaerji won
- UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. ZhangWalker won
- UFC Fight Night: Yizha vs. WilsonYizha won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.