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Tennis · resolved market

US Open: Tomas Machac vs Taylor Fritz

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Fritzof Machac, Fritz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$111,518
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$113,626

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,518 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa49b…4c40backed Fritz72c27,343$19,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,759.2911230.4%34 W · 78 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Machac28c13,232$3,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,639.2658240%233 W · 349 L+1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a9…b5a8backed Machac29c12,067$3,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,499.421822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc56f…75efbacked Fritz71c10,400$7,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0164330.2%13 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61bf…647ebacked Machac11c9,994$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.34185.6%1 W · 17 L-3.6wins-0.20per pick25cpaid-89.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Fritz75c9,324$7,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,299.4810845.4%49 W · 59 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3413…2657backed Fritz72c8,752$6,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,450.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2f8…56b6backed Machac26c7,792$2,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,024.928949.4%44 W · 45 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Machac29c7,392$2,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,143.7815933.3%53 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Machac31c6,000$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,84022737.4%85 W · 142 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Machac28c5,364$1,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,526.6864955.2%358 W · 291 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Machac30c5,000$1,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,474.9116140.4%65 W · 96 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Machac28c3,187$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.418052.5%42 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked Machac29c2,714$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.5214243%61 W · 81 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Fritz76c2,458$1,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.4613050%65 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Machac28c2,200$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61677046.9%361 W · 409 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54e7…e35fbacked Fritz71c1,800$1,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52212954.3%70 W · 59 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4487…08c6backed Machac30c1,768$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.4912737.8%48 W · 79 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Fritz70c1,623$1,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.847147.9%34 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6fe…b77fbacked Machac28c1,436$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.173542.9%15 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf80b…fa00backed Fritz70c1,399$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.7415957.2%91 W · 68 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+18.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4cd4…ce48backed Machac30c1,103$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3319941.4%41 W · 58 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Machac31c1,074$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.9159151.6%305 W · 286 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ea…5590backed Fritz74c1,069$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.051154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3d0…5c32backed Machac29c1,039$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.3122629.2%66 W · 160 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8406…0176backed Fritz69c1,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31010654.7%58 W · 48 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Fritz70c815.8$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.7755143.4%239 W · 312 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Machac30c800$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24029636.8%109 W · 187 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x431b…1d9cbacked Fritz74c773.41$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.272157.1%12 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Fritz68c686.75$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.761,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Fritz72c682.67$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.8117867.4%120 W · 58 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36d0…8dcebacked Machac30c666.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked Machac30c600$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18029634.1%101 W · 195 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x48e3…c148backed Machac29c599.98$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.9915724.8%39 W · 118 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+20.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Fritz71c527.38$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.941,05655.4%585 W · 471 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Fritz69c500$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1559354.8%51 W · 42 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked Fritz70c499$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.72653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e94…6243backed Machac25c483.13$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6617833.1%59 W · 119 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Fritz70c472.91$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.8795140.1%381 W · 570 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b5a…7618backed Machac19c390$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.725330%76 W · 177 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x900b…34bcbacked Machac29c367.24$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1061957.9%11 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+62%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Machac23c360$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8313245.5%60 W · 72 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b2b…5752backed Fritz71c354.56$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.8221454.7%117 W · 97 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce09…6b0bbacked Machac29c349.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.54254.8%23 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff72…512bbacked Machac29c345$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.056833.8%23 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Fritz77c336.2$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.2632141.1%132 W · 189 L-1.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Machac30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10073147.9%350 W · 381 L-16.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Machac24c279.5$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.032,85947.1%1,348 W · 1,511 L+37.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Fritz72c277.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.7825352.2%132 W · 121 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88f5…ee20backed Machac18c270.97$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.34540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-47.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b90…f4f2backed Fritz71c253.52$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.52560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked Machac18c250.88$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.66747.8%32 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4835…8f59backed Fritz72c250$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7014850%74 W · 74 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd208…25a3backed Machac12c240$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e1…9c10backed Fritz71c211.27$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.277061.4%43 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Machac20c191.8$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.411,77943.3%5,102 W · 6,677 L+20.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1d0…8e9dbacked Machac30c178.63$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe860…cdaabacked Machac29c172.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed Fritz71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.851,28760.7%781 W · 506 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Fritz71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8563942.4%271 W · 368 L+1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe64f…5976backed Fritz71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8514940.9%61 W · 88 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d26…ccb8backed Fritz75c140$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3513762.8%86 W · 51 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Machac28c135.92$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0614949%73 W · 76 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ab6…cfecbacked Machac30c133.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4012927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf112…21ebbacked Fritz71c109.86$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8613864.5%89 W · 49 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa263…6cf0backed Fritz73c103.96$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0717538.3%67 W · 108 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Machac30c103.33$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314940.8%20 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c40…ea3dbacked Machac28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285446.3%25 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8af…4900backed Machac29c87$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2317349.1%85 W · 88 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45b0…4d8ebacked Fritz71c80.28$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.282070%14 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d17…b1fdbacked Fritz68c73.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.532454.2%13 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.14per pick68cpaid-25.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe233…14a3backed Fritz71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4238356.9%218 W · 165 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Fritz71c70.41$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4291350.2%458 W · 455 L-21.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Machac29c69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.011,48932.6%486 W · 1,003 L+22.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbaa…59b8backed Machac29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2032647.9%156 W · 170 L-12.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1aaa…0c04backed Machac30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015044.7%67 W · 83 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5998…141cbacked Machac30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203663.9%23 W · 13 L+4.9wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0a52…eb93backed Machac32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c590backed Machac32c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.26524.6%16 W · 49 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Fritz68c44.49$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2411652.6%61 W · 55 L-0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Fritz69c43.48$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.482,34846.5%1,092 W · 1,256 L+54.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6677…4ea3backed Fritz76c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed Machac29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd766…acfcbacked Machac32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbc5…e175backed Fritz75c27.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.99683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+26%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17ca…5178backed Fritz73c22.34$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.032100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+84.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ee…8067backed Fritz72c20.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8349955.1%275 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8495…df87backed Fritz70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610266.7%68 W · 34 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73cd…c78fbacked Fritz71c18.34$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.323100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeae0…c81abacked Fritz71c18.1$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.25560%3 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick74cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e74…4934backed Fritz71c17.77$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.152100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83ff…93c3backed Fritz72c17.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.87666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13cb…f258backed Fritz71c16.89$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e2…4459backed Fritz71c16.41$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7610472.1%75 W · 29 L+9.9wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+18.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xacdf…0ec4backed Fritz73c15.35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.148562.4%53 W · 32 L-0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.