TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb9ea…5590

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
40
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: College Football, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category College Football at 57 out of 100; worst La Liga at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
MLB Inactivelast resolved Sep 6, 2025, EDT1369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nationals vs. Cubsbacked Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$175.34
Nationals vs. Cubsbacked Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$33.2
Orioles vs. Padresbacked Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2025, EDT+105.2%+$215.64
Braves vs. Cubsbacked Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$578Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2025, EDT+28.8%+$166.1
Braves vs. Philliesbacked Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$455Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+164.6%+$749.24
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgersbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$468Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+57.7%+$270.02
Brewers vs. Blue Jaysbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$233Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+37%+$86.06
Pirates vs. Red Soxbacked Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$232.47
Mariners vs. Guardiansbacked Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$297Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$297.02
Cardinals vs. Redsbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$271Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$271.07
Nationals vs. Yankeesbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$459Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 27, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$178.55
Rays vs. Guardiansbacked Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$661Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$661.26
Nationals vs. Philliesbacked Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$16.7
All 13 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Sep 7, 2025, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US Open: Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcarazbacked Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$21.73
US Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Amanda Anisimovabacked Anisimova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.27
US Open: Felix Auger Aliassime vs Alex de Minaurbacked Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT+287.5%+$292.44
US Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Marketa Vondrousovabacked Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$16.05
US Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Karolina Muchovabacked Muchova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$231Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+49.7%+$114.73
US Open: Felix Auger Aliassime vs Andrey Rublevbacked Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$385Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+109.4%+$421.18
US Open: Tomas Machac vs Taylor Fritzbacked Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$791Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$278.05
US Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Jan Lennard Struffbacked Tiafoe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.45
US Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Arthur Rinderknechbacked Bonzi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$193Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$193.08
US Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Juncheng Shangbacked Shang · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.68
US Open: Francisco Comesana vs Alex Michelsenbacked Michelsen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$119.57
All 11 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Sep 6, 2025, EDT683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick51cpaid+51%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
College Football — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kansas vs. Missouribacked Missouri · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$38.59
Baylor vs. SMUbacked Baylor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT+141%+$15.92
Iowa vs. Iowa Statebacked Iowa State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$66.46
Virginia Tech vs. South Carolinabacked Virginia Tech · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$94.72
Alabama vs. Florida Statebacked Florida State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$317Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT+46%+$145.86
Texas vs. Ohio Statebacked Ohio State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT+61.4%+$44.86
All 6 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Sep 8, 2025, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ravens vs. Billsbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$64.93
Texans vs. Ramsbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.27
Buccaneers vs. Falconsbacked Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$133.48
Steelers vs. Jetsbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$59.32
Raiders vs. Patriotsbacked Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$231Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+132.6%+$305.89
Cowboys vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT+26%+$3.38
All 6 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Sep 7, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
WNBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wings vs. Sparksbacked Sparks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+37%+$4.44
Dream vs. Sunbacked Dream · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$292Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+59.2%+$172.65
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Aug 31, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris FC vs. FC Metz end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$271Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$271.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Villarreal win on 2025-08-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$260.33
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.