Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Francisco Comesana vs Alex Michelsen
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1623548b9c780e9dd1473f47b20889c9b3d887abb3f92ccee948f7c27cdbb372
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Comesanaof Comesana, Michelsen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Comesana | 28c | 10,643$2,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,697.84 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Michelsen | 72c | 7,332$5,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,279.35 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Comesana | 76c | 5,821$4,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,398.73 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Michelsen | 46c | 3,512$1,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,603.75 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Comesana | 25c | 2,530$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,895.8 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Michelsen | 44c | 2,097$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.6 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Michelsen | 32c | 1,603$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.9 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Michelsen | 73c | 1,518$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.04 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Michelsen | 72c | 1,466$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.02 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Michelsen | 73c | 1,359$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.86 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Michelsen | 71c | 1,064$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.76 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Comesana | 32c | 945$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.52 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Michelsen | 33c | 735.31$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Michelsen | 38c | 692.81$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.76 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Michelsen | 73c | 600$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Michelsen | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Michelsen | 52c | 449.81$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.9 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Michelsen | 43c | 399.24$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.59 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Comesana | 60c | 399$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.55 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…19e8backed Comesana | 57c | 370.64$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.4 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Comesana | 29c | 345.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.6 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Comesana | 55c | 341.51$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.43 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Comesana | 30c | 335$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Comesana | 38c | 323.16$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.57 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…5590backed Michelsen | 42c | 286.59$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.57 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Michelsen | 23c | 240$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Michelsen | 43c | 211.26$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Michelsen | 55c | 182.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Comesana | 31c | 179$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.51 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…273bbacked Michelsen | 34c | 165$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Comesana | 60c | 149.29$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.02 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Michelsen | 35c | 144.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Michelsen | 34c | 140$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Comesana | 34c | 125$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.32 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…d3d0backed Michelsen | 50c | 123.02$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Michelsen | 27c | 112.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Michelsen | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…6e98backed Michelsen | 22c | 72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Michelsen | 73c | 71.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Comesana | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 512 | 43%220 W · 292 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f7…facbbacked Michelsen | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Comesana | 33c | 59.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Michelsen | 74c | 59.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…8d3cbacked Michelsen | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…cfecbacked Comesana | 29c | 41.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8c2bbacked Michelsen | 54c | 30.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3778…8604backed Michelsen | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b1…5187backed Michelsen | 74c | 14.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f80…4da7backed Michelsen | 75c | 14.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.