TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Tennis · resolved market

US Open: Felix Auger Aliassime vs Alex de Minaur

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Aliassimeof Aliassime, Minaur
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$651,259
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$784,121

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $651,259 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 257 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2f09…4632backed Aliassime43c60,000$25,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,4005950.8%30 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Aliassime42c41,740$17,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,376.7216140.4%65 W · 96 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Minaur58c41,499$24,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,154.49354.8%51 W · 42 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Minaur58c38,589$22,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,281.718052.5%42 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Aliassime61c34,936$21,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,661.6410845.4%49 W · 59 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Aliassime42c30,000$12,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,40022037.7%83 W · 137 L+1.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bde…8c91backed Minaur29c25,800$7,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,482922.2%2 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a05…5c62backed Minaur58c23,920$13,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,873.852653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x081c…f010backed Minaur57c22,000$12,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,5402733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Minaur57c20,915$11,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,921.571,20649%591 W · 615 L+11.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x843d…e617backed Minaur58c15,000$8,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,7004456.8%25 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+19.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Minaur57c13,000$7,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,409.9964855.2%358 W · 290 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0344…a65ebacked Aliassime42c12,000$5,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,9601662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Aliassime42c11,810$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,810.128443%122 W · 162 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Minaur57c11,081$6,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,316.3540%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Aliassime25c10,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,50067249.6%333 W · 339 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Aliassime42c10,000$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,8003268.8%22 W · 10 L+6.5wins+0.20per pick48cpaid+31.9%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xf17e…0200backed Aliassime43c9,302$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,302.331040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ea…6254backed Aliassime43c8,868$3,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,054.761526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Aliassime43c8,110$3,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,622.8611053.6%59 W · 51 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24c2…10cebacked Minaur62c7,300$4,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,543.39837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-39.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Minaur58c6,950$4,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,020.552844.7%236 W · 292 L+30.8wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Minaur57c6,187$3,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,553.9962742.4%266 W · 361 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Minaur50c6,135$3,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,092.6645737.9%173 W · 284 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Minaur63c5,823$3,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,641.4522344.8%100 W · 123 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8482…2f1fbacked Minaur58c5,132$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54a1…7cb1backed Aliassime37c4,773$1,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,984.671050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf80b…fa00backed Minaur57c4,750$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,699.9915957.2%91 W · 68 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+18.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Aliassime40c4,662$1,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,779.8213050%65 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Aliassime46c4,644$2,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,510.6711230.4%34 W · 78 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe411…04c5backed Minaur58c4,428$2,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,568.486136.1%22 W · 39 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06b2…9f35backed Aliassime45c4,423$2,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,415.592035%7 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-36.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Minaur76c4,400$3,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,353.8411852.5%62 W · 56 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Aliassime42c3,811$1,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,212.6911,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Aliassime32c3,800$1,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,56626039.2%102 W · 158 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Minaur57c3,675$2,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,094.7115832.9%52 W · 106 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x197c…b3debacked Aliassime15c3,563$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,012.98450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+100%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2f8…56b6backed Minaur61c3,018$1,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,839.298949.4%44 W · 45 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Aliassime42c3,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7408143.2%35 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked Aliassime40c2,749$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,648.6614243%61 W · 81 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed Minaur56c2,665$1,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.643933.3%13 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Aliassime42c2,619$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,519.0557649.5%285 W · 291 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe31a…adffbacked Aliassime40c2,443$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,471.9525244.4%112 W · 140 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc56f…75efbacked Aliassime43c2,404$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,375.64330.2%13 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x197f…dc8dbacked Minaur58c2,185$1,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,274.043441.2%14 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2873…ad0abacked Aliassime66c2,100$1,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7171457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebed…97bebacked Aliassime45c2,074$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,148.34366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+47.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Minaur57c2,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,14036540.8%149 W · 216 L-13.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Aliassime43c2,000$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,14011652.6%61 W · 55 L-0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Aliassime43c1,870$797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,072.8829152.6%153 W · 138 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b16…0dc4backed Minaur73c1,812$1,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,316.23742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick62cpaid-38.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5de…332bbacked Minaur75c1,800$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,350850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa645…0be6backed Aliassime32c1,562$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,062.083339.4%13 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Aliassime38c1,523$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.062835.7%10 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3868…5683backed Minaur53c1,500$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7957330.1%22 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked Minaur57c1,500$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.991540%6 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked Aliassime54c1,465$789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.976747.8%32 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Minaur58c1,400$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81843042.8%184 W · 246 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Aliassime25c1,400$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0505545.5%25 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bae…e6c5backed Minaur50c1,393$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.5417818%32 W · 146 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-39.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed Minaur53c1,358$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.7313253.8%71 W · 61 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Minaur76c1,343$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0168231.7%26 W · 56 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3d0…5c32backed Aliassime43c1,338$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.4222629.2%66 W · 160 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecba…5fb4backed Aliassime41c1,323$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.0211457.9%66 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Minaur58c1,319$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7651,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde44…cb51backed Aliassime41c1,280$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.6713435.1%47 W · 87 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54e7…e35fbacked Minaur57c1,270$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.912954.3%70 W · 59 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Minaur63c1,250$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.681,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Aliassime25c1,201$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.4222337.7%84 W · 139 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Minaur50c1,112$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.1213245.5%60 W · 72 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Aliassime47c1,053$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.0938348%184 W · 199 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85e2…0980backed Minaur40c1,012$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40014546.2%67 W · 78 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Minaur57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5703732.4%12 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Aliassime58c900$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3771250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Minaur60c838.23$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004131.7%13 W · 28 L-6.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6fbb…ec2abacked Aliassime42c828.64$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.61742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+32%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18f6…b00bbacked Minaur61c823.57$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008565.9%56 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked Aliassime25c771.62$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.0629028.3%82 W · 208 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d76…9168backed Aliassime44c750$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42037540.8%153 W · 222 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x441e…2703backed Aliassime43c746.38$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+133.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x422c…9840backed Aliassime43c739.02$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.2423429.9%70 W · 164 L-1.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Minaur57c701.75$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ba9…bfaebacked Minaur71c700$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50017754.8%97 W · 80 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Aliassime49c697.88$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.0172957.3%418 W · 311 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39ea…f75bbacked Aliassime43c697.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.67666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc71e…f450backed Minaur62c694.58$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.222634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Minaur58c620.34$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.85151%26 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7616…69eebacked Minaur58c603.45$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3507057.1%40 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf3c…f5ffbacked Minaur58c558.02$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32411859.3%70 W · 48 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e90…b93bbacked Aliassime56c543.39$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.39425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-55.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed Aliassime24c513$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.086136.1%22 W · 39 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+30.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x83c8…5d9ebacked Minaur30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed Aliassime43c500$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2851926.3%5 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.16per pick42cpaid-35.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f19…aec2backed Minaur58c500$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2905869%40 W · 18 L+5.8wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+10.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c590backed Aliassime39c500$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3046524.6%16 W · 49 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe65f…a749backed Minaur42c500$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2093638.9%14 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4835…8f59backed Aliassime43c500$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28514850%74 W · 74 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x628e…a488backed Aliassime42c500$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2901369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0111…0463backed Aliassime42c499.98$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.993161.3%19 W · 12 L+5.9wins+0.19per pick42cpaid+47.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Minaur58c499.96$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.9831650%158 W · 158 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.