Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Paris FC vs. FC Metz end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7775920724155631d80a11713feb648b4db3210a2f83a7e1f4bf6be869317e27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9ea…5590backed Yes | 41c | 656.98$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 57c | 542.41$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.76 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 29c | 441.79$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.3 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 72c | 401.79$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 64c | 340.09$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.16 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3222…2823backed Yes | 49c | 204.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 57c | 106$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +17.9wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 42c | 87.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 74c | 49.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked No | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb5…da2cbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Paris FC vs. FC Metz end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Metz win on 2025-08-31?No won
- Will Paris FC win on 2025-08-31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.