Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Metz win on 2025-08-31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x289350486745a1912bd429fb39d42a36074c7c1f7801a20578bb84f8294fc55a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 24c | 720$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.14 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +18.3wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 70c | 637.6$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.44 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 78c | 500$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.53 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed Yes | 21c | 482.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6278…57e6backed Yes | 22c | 461.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 19c | 299.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 65c | 292.93$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.36 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…1d65backed Yes | 45c | 267.73$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 19c | 265$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 43c | 170.44$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.29 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked Yes | 19c | 164.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 22c | 135.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 79c | 86.48$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 232 | 60.8%141 W · 91 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 21c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41f…e827backed Yes | 45c | 55.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 21c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2c…e2fdbacked Yes | 45c | 44.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 74c | 27.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +12.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Metz win on 2025-08-31?this page
- Will Paris FC vs. FC Metz end in a draw?No won
- Will Paris FC win on 2025-08-31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.