TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

US Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Marketa Vondrousova

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sabalenkaof Sabalenka, Vondrousova
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$351,172
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$378,883

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $351,172 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa49b…4c40backed Sabalenka76c117,042$88,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,551.4811230.4%34 W · 78 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Vondrousova28c87,834$24,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,227.971942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+119%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Sabalenka73c70,000$50,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,099.985950.8%30 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Vondrousova24c55,000$13,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,124.721,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Sabalenka73c37,498$27,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,007.078052.5%42 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Vondrousova26c34,000$8,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,899.999137.4%34 W · 57 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Vondrousova25c23,100$5,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,736.9816140.4%65 W · 96 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9055…756abacked Sabalenka74c16,000$11,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,120.83837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x081c…f010backed Vondrousova25c14,000$3,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,559.972733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Vondrousova27c12,271$3,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,313.179354.8%51 W · 42 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Vondrousova26c11,111$2,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,888.86666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick31cpaid+112.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Sabalenka73c10,476$7,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,828.641127.3%3 W · 8 L-4.5wins-0.41per pick68cpaid-61.2%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed Vondrousova27c10,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70012231.1%38 W · 84 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8406…0176backed Sabalenka72c9,000$6,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,489.9910654.7%58 W · 48 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Vondrousova24c7,314$1,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,785.8595140.1%381 W · 570 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc56f…75efbacked Vondrousova27c6,133$1,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,655.874330.2%13 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Vondrousova21c6,051$1,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,254.6811,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Vondrousova17c5,400$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9147744.2%34 W · 43 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Vondrousova21c4,707$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.432141.1%132 W · 189 L-1.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Sabalenka74c4,388$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,137.932857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Vondrousova6c4,300$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2601,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked Sabalenka78c3,306$2,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.8728828.5%82 W · 206 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Sabalenka77c3,204$2,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.653647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Sabalenka78c3,179$2,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.372751.9%14 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3868…5683backed Vondrousova28c3,000$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.417330.1%22 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Vondrousova27c2,778$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.0662742.4%266 W · 361 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76fc…e0bdbacked Sabalenka75c2,309$1,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.24030%12 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Vondrousova2c2,300$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd4a…048ebacked Vondrousova25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked Vondrousova27c1,700$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45929634.1%101 W · 195 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Vondrousova27c1,539$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.7636440.9%149 W · 215 L-13.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Vondrousova27c1,362$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.611,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1c4…4b97backed Sabalenka74c1,259$931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.26425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-66.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85e2…0980backed Vondrousova28c1,236$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34014546.2%67 W · 78 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Vondrousova27c1,183$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.8155143.4%239 W · 312 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Sabalenka74c1,070$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.1412949.6%64 W · 65 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Sabalenka74c1,013$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.5145737.9%173 W · 284 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad7b…63dabacked Sabalenka74c1,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Vondrousova26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26011652.6%61 W · 55 L-0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60e6…9e8abacked Vondrousova26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3d0…5c32backed Vondrousova27c812.5$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.3822629.2%66 W · 160 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b16…0dc4backed Sabalenka74c675.68$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.68742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick62cpaid-38.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x48e3…c148backed Vondrousova25c599.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15015724.8%39 W · 118 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+20.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6677…4ea3backed Sabalenka76c567.87$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.34771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x101c…4392backed Sabalenka73c500$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1353836.8%14 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e86…93c2backed Vondrousova26c499.98$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.991127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-46.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Sabalenka74c457.38$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.925151%26 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x823d…8091backed Sabalenka74c450.91$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.242250%11 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Vondrousova27c450$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.522449.6%111 W · 113 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Vondrousova22c446.37$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.072,76647.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Vondrousova27c400$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1089741.2%40 W · 57 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d99…fe22backed Sabalenka75c387.03$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.03580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+32.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x56e6…45e9backed Vondrousova27c322.3$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.023467.6%23 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Vondrousova27c309.67$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.611,19348.9%583 W · 610 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa317…a3f3backed Sabalenka74c299.2$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.79540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2f8…56b6backed Vondrousova27c278$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.068949.4%44 W · 45 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked Vondrousova22c270.27$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.465860.3%35 W · 23 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x934f…5bd8backed Vondrousova22c270.27$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.464252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed Vondrousova22c270.27$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.466863.2%43 W · 25 L+8.2wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+24.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4133…e834backed Vondrousova22c270.27$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.463847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2729…e171backed Vondrousova26c226.62$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.921546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Vondrousova27c207$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.981,24533.9%422 W · 823 L-5.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked Vondrousova22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4417338.7%67 W · 106 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+77.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe239…14eabacked Vondrousova18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70d2…f395backed Sabalenka74c200$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523070%21 W · 9 L+6.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+44.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3149…9762backed Sabalenka74c191.89$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.895265.4%34 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x225f…5ec6backed Sabalenka74c151.46$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.381770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe233…14a3backed Sabalenka74c148.65$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6538356.9%218 W · 165 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc80…e7bebacked Sabalenka73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.991838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed Sabalenka74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.141,28760.7%781 W · 506 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ba0…ff3abacked Sabalenka74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1443158.2%251 W · 180 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Sabalenka74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1473147.9%350 W · 381 L-16.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe876…7346backed Sabalenka74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.14666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Sabalenka73c131$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.377037.1%26 W · 44 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-44%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Vondrousova14c110$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1543948.5%213 W · 226 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Vondrousova28c107.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3025352.2%132 W · 121 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb32…b21ebacked Vondrousova21c100.01$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213652.8%19 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x621f…7293backed Sabalenka74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Vondrousova25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258522.4%19 W · 66 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4451…fcbebacked Sabalenka73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8a42…471abacked Sabalenka74c93.8$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4487…08c6backed Vondrousova27c85.19$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2312737.8%48 W · 79 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b2b…5752backed Sabalenka74c81.08$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.0821454.7%117 W · 97 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Vondrousova25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,48932.6%486 W · 1,003 L+22.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Vondrousova27c75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2513245.5%60 W · 72 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5998…141cbacked Vondrousova27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203663.9%23 W · 13 L+4.9wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3d17…b1fdbacked Sabalenka73c68.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.492454.2%13 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.14per pick68cpaid-25.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1141…971ebacked Sabalenka74c67.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.572100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ea…5590backed Sabalenka74c61.74$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.051154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1781…a0ecbacked Vondrousova28c45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.68943.8%39 W · 50 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ee…8067backed Sabalenka74c40.54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5449955.1%275 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf112…21ebbacked Sabalenka74c40.54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5413864.5%89 W · 49 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Sabalenka74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.82157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+75.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e63…7e29backed Sabalenka74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.033154.8%17 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcefc…a993backed Sabalenka74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.033100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d84…72dabacked Sabalenka74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.03475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8292…0d5bbacked Sabalenka74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.03666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+35.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2702…0495backed Sabalenka74c24.91$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.482680.8%21 W · 5 L+3.9wins+0.15per pick66cpaid+24.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x302b…eb55backed Sabalenka73c21.92$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6725…6846backed Sabalenka73c20.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.55475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.