TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1141…971e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
41
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Tweets, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 53 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2025, EDT1560%9 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirierbacked Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$16.36
UFC 318: Ige vs. Pitbull backed Pitbull · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+203%+$40.61
UFC 318: Phillips vs. Oliveirabacked Oliveira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$14.48
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveirabacked Topuria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$5.64
UFC 317: Pantoja vs. Kara-Francebacked Kara-France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicanobacked Moicano · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
UFC 317: Talbott vs. Limabacked Lima · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
UFC 317: Hermansson vs. Rodriguesbacked Rodrigues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$8.08
UFC 317: Araujo vs. Cortezbacked Cortez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$7.73
UFC 317: McKinney vs. Borshchevbacked McKinney · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$9.59
UFC 317: Price vs. Smith backed Price · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckleybacked Buckley · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
UFC Fight Night: Shahbazyan vs. Petroskibacked Shahbazyan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT+70.5%+$18.26
UFC Fight Night: Durden vs. Ochoabacked Ochoa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$9.85
UFC Fight Night: Rowe vs. Loosabacked Loosa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 15 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Oct 24, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+30.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+124.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Sep 7, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US Open: Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcarazbacked Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$36.21
US Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Marketa Vondrousovabacked Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$17.57
All 2 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 19, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Angels vs. Yankeesbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$45
Padres vs. Dodgersbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$12.88
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Sep 15, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $78m and $85m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT+104.5%+$18.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$498Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+53.7%+$267.53
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Sep 10, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$19.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 17, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$130
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 20, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.