TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon tweet 175–199 times June 6–13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$673,607
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$680,678

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $673,607 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 492 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6964…ef53backed Yes68c39,824$27,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,550.5866222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f1d…63d9backed No24c27,774$6,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,729.7160%0 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7456…91e9backed Yes72c16,142$11,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,591.91922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed No0c15,398$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.45325.3%28 W · 504 L+1.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-68.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No34c12,227$4,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,164.5123464.5%151 W · 83 L+23.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb608…ebdfbacked No14c11,084$1,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,568.721766.8%12 W · 164 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-39.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf673…406fbacked Yes47c10,894$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,794.0514818.2%27 W · 121 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d18…b702backed Yes58c9,008$5,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,781.511315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-76%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf224…7532backed Yes52c7,113$3,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,444.213315.2%5 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-42.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97e2…b261backed Yes46c6,110$2,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,273.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes42c5,835$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,395.4468615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes45c4,945$2,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,718.5143719.7%86 W · 351 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb5a…3965backed Yes33c4,941$1,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,313.4721810.1%22 W · 196 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-66.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf652…9351backed Yes66c4,900$3,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,663.54475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b89…e708backed Yes26c4,781$1,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,543.491008%8 W · 92 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-55.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes68c4,723$3,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,532.5756817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes63c4,358$2,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,597.6228534.4%98 W · 187 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes50c4,276$2,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,146.591779%16 W · 161 L+0.5wins0.00per pick9cpaid-70.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes64c4,254$2,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,533.9162412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes40c4,164$1,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,494.49914.1%14 W · 85 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-61%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe529…8a7cbacked Yes63c3,930$2,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,466.82825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes23c3,551$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,749.2334017.1%58 W · 282 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dc7…3a04backed Yes71c3,548$2,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.45328.3%15 W · 38 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x179e…ebe8backed Yes67c3,434$2,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,144.552020%4 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9711…3fa1backed Yes71c3,199$2,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916.02580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+21%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes25c3,158$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,376.8978811.5%91 W · 697 L-33.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb38…ce37backed Yes61c3,008$1,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,164.1425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-59.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa493…612ebacked Yes63c2,898$1,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.584922.4%11 W · 38 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-50.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x454b…8bacbacked Yes69c2,888$1,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.436720.9%14 W · 53 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xccdc…567bbacked Yes27c2,730$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,989.4622710.1%23 W · 204 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid-35%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x46f8…3186backed Yes39c2,711$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,660.763925.6%10 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Yes79c2,518$1,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.43250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes17c2,370$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,976.922119.9%44 W · 177 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x865c…ad2abacked Yes25c2,357$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,760.0311916.8%20 W · 99 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes23c2,342$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,800.6424618.7%46 W · 200 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-43.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa54d…4107backed Yes25c2,278$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,698.131833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes22c2,200$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,705.212932.6%42 W · 87 L-0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes35c2,188$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,431.6357222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes26c2,163$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,608.245249.9%52 W · 472 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+64%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes31c2,145$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,488.9215520%31 W · 124 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-16.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes22c2,071$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,610.2124115.4%37 W · 204 L+0.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No77c2,038$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,560.3951845.9%238 W · 280 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a93…a0efbacked Yes54c2,031$1,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.27812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-77%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd28c…5de7backed Yes15c2,013$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,701.493013.3%4 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-48.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e1f…6f69backed Yes63c1,987$1,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.765435.2%19 W · 35 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa50…8756backed Yes41c1,951$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,145.15922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-50.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba72…e08bbacked Yes77c1,949$1,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.191346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+19.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes17c1,929$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,609.7331217.9%56 W · 256 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1af2…0cb2backed Yes24c1,803$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,375.83475%3 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick27cpaid+156.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes18c1,791$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,461.6665623.2%152 W · 504 L+1.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd361…3885backed Yes69c1,749$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.973040%12 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x312a…66b8backed Yes41c1,706$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.3327920.4%57 W · 222 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No69c1,663$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.9199619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95f4…dffdbacked Yes33c1,538$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,023.624818.8%9 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-39.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes28c1,493$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067.6784616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeae8…479fbacked Yes49c1,469$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.419217.4%16 W · 76 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71d8…41a9backed Yes47c1,403$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.83837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick21cpaid+80%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No47c1,372$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.2214530.3%44 W · 101 L-12.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-49.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes49c1,351$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.6848310.1%49 W · 434 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f75…0ac6backed Yes55c1,300$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.46333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedc0…1b66backed Yes33c1,201$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.85922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-41.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e35…c89abacked No20c1,200$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.126711.9%8 W · 59 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick7cpaid-32%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No62c1,154$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.3779735.9%286 W · 511 L-34.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xab24…8c8ebacked Yes68c1,132$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.69250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6cd…4e7fbacked Yes9c1,117$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,017.31633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+180.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed No6c1,057$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.628514.1%12 W · 73 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c11…c819backed Yes61c1,050$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.64277.4%2 W · 25 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-80.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0484…a23ebacked Yes57c1,027$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.739714.4%14 W · 83 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes15c1,026$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.0228113.5%38 W · 243 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes58c1,011$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.0417216.9%29 W · 143 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-48.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes21c1,000$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7888822.7%20 W · 68 L-0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes47c999.16$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.655036%18 W · 32 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+20.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Yes29c987.37$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.16392.6%1 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-91.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes67c900$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.9475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a8e…aaf5backed Yes25c866.61$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.762313%3 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-63.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf343…576ebacked Yes37c865.26$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.11714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-61.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x02de…44e6backed Yes59c858.7$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.34333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-43.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab43…7c23backed Yes51c854.93$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.322917.2%5 W · 24 L-5.0wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-70.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5545…8371backed Yes33c835.61$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.768920.2%18 W · 71 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes24c834.89$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.8911220.5%23 W · 89 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x701c…4615backed Yes48c834.29$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.296417.2%11 W · 53 L+0.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacfd…5374backed Yes20c809.07$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.81728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick15cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa862…46e2backed Yes38c805.54$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.545817.2%10 W · 48 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc9c…80ddbacked No33c777.93$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.02425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-57.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes35c769.93$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.947716.9%13 W · 64 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9dd…8121backed No31c766.73$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.21329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-63.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a54…7663backed Yes37c757.77$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.2710923.9%26 W · 83 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes15c740.84$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.7423019.1%44 W · 186 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a69…fff9backed Yes69c722.76$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.76366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2067…605dbacked Yes64c719.31$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes7c715.66$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.292715.2%14 W · 257 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-38.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a24…71e8backed Yes20c711.16$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.545115.7%8 W · 43 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed No53c696.04$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.65496.1%3 W · 46 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-74.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03fa…cb29backed Yes23c686.65$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.65922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes14c685.8$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.88206.6%54 W · 766 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8257…da02backed Yes71c656.8$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.2912745.7%58 W · 69 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaba5…b775backed Yes15c653.7$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.71513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x101c…4392backed Yes79c650$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.641827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5803…13e7backed Yes20c649.8$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.844717%8 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+56.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50dd…9c04backed Yes9c644.37$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.726331.7%20 W · 43 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick21cpaid+173.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.