Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times June 6–13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1766c4142e4b41acdac20d4554bccbae3657c50cb6cbeb1110e16ae29162f2cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $673,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $680,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $673,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 492 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 68c | 39,824$27,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,550.58 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed No | 24c | 27,774$6,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,729.7 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7456…91e9backed Yes | 72c | 16,142$11,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,591.91 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed No | 0c | 15,398$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 34c | 12,227$4,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,164.51 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked No | 14c | 11,084$1,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,568.72 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 47c | 10,894$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,794.05 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d18…b702backed Yes | 58c | 9,008$5,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,781.51 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…7532backed Yes | 52c | 7,113$3,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,444.21 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e2…b261backed Yes | 46c | 6,110$2,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,273.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 42c | 5,835$2,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,395.44 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 45c | 4,945$2,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,718.51 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 33c | 4,941$1,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,313.47 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf652…9351backed Yes | 66c | 4,900$3,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,663.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 26c | 4,781$1,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,543.49 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 68c | 4,723$3,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,532.57 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 63c | 4,358$2,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,597.62 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 50c | 4,276$2,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,146.59 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 64c | 4,254$2,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,533.91 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 40c | 4,164$1,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,494.4 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe529…8a7cbacked Yes | 63c | 3,930$2,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,466.82 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 23c | 3,551$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,749.23 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed Yes | 71c | 3,548$2,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.4 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 67c | 3,434$2,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.55 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9711…3fa1backed Yes | 71c | 3,199$2,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.02 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 3,158$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,376.89 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb38…ce37backed Yes | 61c | 3,008$1,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 63c | 2,898$1,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.58 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 69c | 2,888$1,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.43 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 27c | 2,730$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,989.46 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed Yes | 39c | 2,711$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,660.76 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Yes | 79c | 2,518$1,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 17c | 2,370$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,976.9 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 25c | 2,357$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760.03 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 23c | 2,342$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800.64 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…4107backed Yes | 25c | 2,278$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,698.13 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 22c | 2,200$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,705.2 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 35c | 2,188$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,431.63 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 26c | 2,163$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,608.24 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 31c | 2,145$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,488.92 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 22c | 2,071$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,610.21 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 2,038$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560.39 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a93…a0efbacked Yes | 54c | 2,031$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.27 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28c…5de7backed Yes | 15c | 2,013$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,701.49 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1f…6f69backed Yes | 63c | 1,987$1,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.76 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa50…8756backed Yes | 41c | 1,951$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,145.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba72…e08bbacked Yes | 77c | 1,949$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.19 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 17c | 1,929$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,609.73 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af2…0cb2backed Yes | 24c | 1,803$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,375.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 27cpaid | +156.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 18c | 1,791$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,461.66 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd361…3885backed Yes | 69c | 1,749$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.97 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 41c | 1,706$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.33 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 69c | 1,663$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.91 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f4…dffdbacked Yes | 33c | 1,538$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.62 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 28c | 1,493$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.67 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 49c | 1,469$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.41 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d8…41a9backed Yes | 47c | 1,403$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 21cpaid | +80%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 47c | 1,372$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.22 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 49c | 1,351$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.68 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f75…0ac6backed Yes | 55c | 1,300$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…1b66backed Yes | 33c | 1,201$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.85 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked No | 20c | 1,200$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.12 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 1,154$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.37 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…8c8ebacked Yes | 68c | 1,132$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cd…4e7fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,117$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +180.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 6c | 1,057$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…c819backed Yes | 61c | 1,050$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.64 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 57c | 1,027$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.73 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 15c | 1,026$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.02 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 58c | 1,011$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.04 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 47c | 999.16$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.65 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 29c | 987.37$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.16 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 67c | 900$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…aaf5backed Yes | 25c | 866.61$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.76 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf343…576ebacked Yes | 37c | 865.26$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02de…44e6backed Yes | 59c | 858.7$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…7c23backed Yes | 51c | 854.93$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.32 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 33c | 835.61$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.76 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…a960backed Yes | 24c | 834.89$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.89 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…4615backed Yes | 48c | 834.29$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.29 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacfd…5374backed Yes | 20c | 809.07$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa862…46e2backed Yes | 38c | 805.54$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.54 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9c…80ddbacked No | 33c | 777.93$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 35c | 769.93$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.94 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dd…8121backed No | 31c | 766.73$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.21 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 37c | 757.77$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.27 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 15c | 740.84$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.74 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a69…fff9backed Yes | 69c | 722.76$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2067…605dbacked Yes | 64c | 719.31$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 7c | 715.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.29 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 20c | 711.16$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.54 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 53c | 696.04$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.65 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03fa…cb29backed Yes | 23c | 686.65$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 14c | 685.8$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.8 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 71c | 656.8$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.29 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…b775backed Yes | 15c | 653.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.7 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…4392backed Yes | 79c | 650$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.64 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…13e7backed Yes | 20c | 649.8$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.84 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed Yes | 9c | 644.37$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.72 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times June 6–13?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350–374 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–399 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400–424 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425–449 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450–474 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475–499 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500 or more times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.