Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times June 6–13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7c9a012c08d5cab1335b00b7728306c825d68bb8db9e74a65e73372f43fb5df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $297,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $297,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 1c | 47,563$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.96 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 1c | 31,122$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.42 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 2c | 12,510$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.37 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 12,335$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.86 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 1c | 11,995$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.49 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 1c | 10,357$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 2c | 6,363$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.57 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 3c | 4,067$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 380 | 10%38 W · 342 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 1c | 3,612$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 4c | 2,999$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.94 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 2c | 2,225$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6abd…9d3cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,924$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 4c | 1,852$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 1c | 1,799$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77be…951abacked Yes | 6c | 1,753$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x779c…b60fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,665$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 7c | 1,653$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…a960backed Yes | 10c | 1,500$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.55 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 8c | 1,346$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.48 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 2c | 1,325$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…b775backed Yes | 8c | 1,258$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f16…4969backed Yes | 12c | 1,208$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.91 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 8c | 1,200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,078$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,075$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa3…da37backed Yes | 5c | 999.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 8c | 909.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 5c | 901.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…4738backed Yes | 2c | 799.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 2c | 676.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d0b…ec02backed Yes | 5c | 675.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 5c | 652.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20bd…8e5cbacked Yes | 6c | 644.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed Yes | 13c | 639$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.96 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd28c…5de7backed Yes | 4c | 599.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 2c | 581$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefd3…4b3ebacked Yes | 4c | 512.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbca…2e2bbacked Yes | 12c | 504.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9389…aaffbacked Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…cda9backed Yes | 8c | 443.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 3c | 437.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c10…6747backed Yes | 13c | 415.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 7c | 401.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 13c | 378.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 179 | 20.7%37 W · 142 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…782cbacked Yes | 11c | 359.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…bbeebacked Yes | 4c | 343.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +46%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 9c | 341.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 109 | 14.7%16 W · 93 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f1…18e6backed Yes | 12c | 331.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 326.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…05b2backed Yes | 6c | 324.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 4c | 322$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 12c | 320.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f48…a14cbacked Yes | 9c | 288.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a9…79f0backed Yes | 5c | 275$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 4c | 256.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ad11backed Yes | 12c | 255$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53dd…2a64backed Yes | 12c | 250.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…ced6backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72c9…8110backed Yes | 13c | 230.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06c…d9abbacked Yes | 10c | 211.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb769…561cbacked Yes | 5c | 204$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…0389backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0c…b4bbbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f4…dffdbacked Yes | 12c | 187.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1994…eb41backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…c819backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe38…4207backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2926…717abacked Yes | 6c | 161.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6554…bbd6backed Yes | 13c | 157.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 12c | 153.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…9febbacked Yes | 14c | 151.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 10c | 127.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa862…46e2backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb41…e394backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…aaf5backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 13c | 106.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f89…b168backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…caa7backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3845…4c75backed Yes | 14c | 98.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times June 6–13?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times June 6–13?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350–374 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–399 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400–424 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425–449 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450–474 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475–499 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500 or more times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.