Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x230a2c0b88aa0cdb810506b818aec1e092c81ae07e3148c2aff24df2aaa0d2e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,043,252
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $546,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,043,252 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 256 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 6c | 80,027$5,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,144.99 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd12d…d764backed Yes | 8c | 76,894$5,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,804.61 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 4c | 40,598$1,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,610.84 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 2c | 30,176$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.33 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 5c | 27,026$1,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,485.99 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 4c | 17,812$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.68 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 4c | 17,238$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.53 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 3c | 16,046$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.34 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 10c | 16,014$1,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632.97 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…f6b9backed Yes | 7c | 14,990$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 12c | 14,485$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,720.3 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 13,789$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.04 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 4c | 13,584$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.21 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 11,690$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.67 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 3c | 11,165$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.1 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 21c | 9,875$2,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,121.95 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f1…93a8backed Yes | 7c | 9,044$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.53 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 11c | 8,919$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.61 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb20…ef0abacked Yes | 13c | 8,556$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.78 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 13c | 8,490$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.6 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…4738backed Yes | 1c | 8,376$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5294…8fc0backed Yes | 2c | 8,012$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 4c | 7,853$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.21 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 5c | 7,792$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.08 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 5c | 7,327$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.86 | 380 | 10%38 W · 342 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed Yes | 7c | 6,856$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.64 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 75c | 6,758$5,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,687.57 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d2…cfb1backed Yes | 10c | 6,546$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 0c | 6,448$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 15c | 6,376$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.39 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 6,338$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.51 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 3c | 6,004$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.99 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 1c | 5,800$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28c…5de7backed Yes | 8c | 5,488$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.05 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…838bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,695$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.22 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…4017backed Yes | 2c | 4,214$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.96 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 3c | 4,181$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.76 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 5c | 4,101$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.8 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 24c | 3,925$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.15 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 27c | 3,769$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.22 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 6c | 3,763$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.66 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 8c | 3,559$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.74 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked No | 69c | 2,700$1,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.59 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed No | 69c | 2,616$1,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.33 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes | 2c | 2,615$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 12c | 2,561$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.77 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 2,497$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.35 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe529…8a7cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,481$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 67c | 2,426$1,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.92 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…4107backed Yes | 8c | 2,396$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.18 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 15c | 2,104$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.88 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 15c | 2,081$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.21 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 10c | 2,079$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb70…b2e2backed Yes | 2c | 2,054$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8704…4b8dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x227e…c85abacked Yes | 9c | 1,935$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…7207backed Yes | 15c | 1,893$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.64 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 79c | 1,769$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.52 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 14c | 1,754$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.55 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…1739backed Yes | 1c | 1,752$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa50…8756backed Yes | 14c | 1,731$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.38 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x625c…61d1backed Yes | 1c | 1,722$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 32c | 1,700$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.8 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 18c | 1,586$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.28 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…505ebacked Yes | 39c | 1,551$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes | 9c | 1,531$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.12 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1afb…e524backed No | 69c | 1,474$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.65 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +540.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3287…bbd9backed Yes | 6c | 1,443$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d7…19c4backed Yes | 31c | 1,417$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.08 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31eb…c9ebbacked Yes | 3c | 1,414$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 5c | 1,395$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.89 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…2a15backed Yes | 10c | 1,300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2260…9fcdbacked Yes | 13c | 1,281$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.99 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 10c | 1,242$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.77 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…c819backed Yes | 7c | 1,217$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 5c | 1,178$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe726…8a6fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,175$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9b…bb0abacked Yes | 30c | 1,173$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 22c | 1,148$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.28 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…27b9backed Yes | 6c | 1,127$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.39 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 9c | 1,102$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.88 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed No | 66c | 1,060$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.24 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 7c | 1,010$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.21 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.91 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 20c | 999.3$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.58 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…e8d7backed Yes | 12c | 995.47$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fb…17b5backed Yes | 13c | 896.97$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +141.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77be…951abacked Yes | 12c | 891.92$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.82 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03fa…cb29backed Yes | 26c | 887.87$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.74 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 879.22$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.65 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 4c | 874.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…dba1backed Yes | 32c | 870.67$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.33 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc028…9349backed Yes | 24c | 868.06$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.73 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 6c | 853.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 21c | 822.12$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.46 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 5c | 792.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9c…80ddbacked Yes | 5c | 791.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times June 6–13?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350–374 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–399 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400–424 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425–449 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450–474 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475–499 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500 or more times June 6–13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.