Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times June 6–13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e15da428ccc520f7a6fe16a6d52052a98df1e9e567895469c44f3443d5f54b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $729,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $451,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $729,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 359 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 9c | 54,794$5,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,102.19 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 2c | 30,000$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…9a73backed Yes | 12c | 24,812$3,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,084.03 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 17c | 21,294$3,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,531.61 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 22c | 20,229$4,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,398.33 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa3…da37backed Yes | 3c | 19,564$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.56 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 5c | 18,768$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.94 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 26c | 17,976$4,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,710.75 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 10c | 12,852$1,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.31 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed Yes | 6c | 12,239$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d18…b702backed Yes | 22c | 9,263$2,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,007.9 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…4107backed Yes | 19c | 9,032$1,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,713.62 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 68c | 8,848$6,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,821.55 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 9c | 8,600$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 20c | 7,908$1,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed Yes | 32c | 7,754$2,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,506.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 15c | 7,272$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.59 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb38…ce37backed Yes | 1c | 6,999$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…4017backed Yes | 35c | 6,482$2,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,270.01 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 14c | 6,328$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.19 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 14c | 6,310$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.19 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…7532backed Yes | 29c | 6,000$1,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,715.39 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 13c | 5,372$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.36 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 16c | 5,341$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.1 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7456…91e9backed Yes | 17c | 5,000$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 4,997$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.37 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ce…fa8cbacked Yes | 14c | 4,854$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.16 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 10c | 4,572$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.36 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 24c | 4,310$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.74 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cb…8887backed Yes | 0c | 4,288$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 7c | 4,230$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.13 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 6c | 4,136$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.49 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 21c | 3,786$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.86 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 21c | 3,636$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…1b66backed Yes | 17c | 3,625$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.09 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 12c | 3,267$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 6c | 3,200$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.14 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 11c | 3,172$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.41 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x674f…4aa8backed Yes | 20c | 3,095$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.49 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 16c | 2,978$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.41 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 21c | 2,917$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.22 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 3c | 2,650$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Yes | 18c | 2,518$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 15c | 2,512$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.33 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d65…e42abacked Yes | 30c | 2,482$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.03 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb20…ef0abacked Yes | 20c | 2,357$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.54 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f40…acc9backed Yes | 43c | 2,203$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…838bbacked Yes | 12c | 2,177$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.85 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 12c | 2,054$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.37 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 1c | 2,041$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 7c | 2,031$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.74 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 9c | 2,001$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.09 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…505ebacked Yes | 28c | 2,000$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.99 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f1…93a8backed Yes | 18c | 1,919$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.58 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb26…94ddbacked Yes | 22c | 1,864$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.4 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a93…a0efbacked Yes | 18c | 1,837$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.29 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 15c | 1,813$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.03 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked Yes | 26c | 1,800$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…2a15backed Yes | 8c | 1,800$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.82 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 22c | 1,688$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.77 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc3…fce2backed Yes | 16c | 1,652$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 16c | 1,562$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.47 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…cda9backed Yes | 16c | 1,496$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.19 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…a403backed Yes | 11c | 1,411$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 25c | 1,389$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.44 | 134 | 7.5%10 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…a960backed Yes | 18c | 1,383$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.8 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 14c | 1,330$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 380 | 10%38 W · 342 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 26c | 1,299$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.6 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa862…46e2backed Yes | 17c | 1,277$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,274$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.64 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 25c | 1,263$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.81 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 17c | 1,237$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.9 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 29c | 1,227$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.28 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes | 18c | 1,197$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce68…f6b8backed Yes | 12c | 1,163$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.54 | 102 | 7.8%8 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…be32backed Yes | 12c | 1,136$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf343…576ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,094$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 5c | 1,078$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,067$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ad11backed Yes | 14c | 1,057$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.08 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 16c | 1,055$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.92 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c7…5142backed Yes | 26c | 1,014$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.95 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 16c | 996.32$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.52 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc028…9349backed Yes | 8c | 977$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.22 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbb…b5f9backed Yes | 27c | 933.15$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.06 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 14c | 926.12$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.48 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 19c | 911.41$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.16 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 27c | 900$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes | 5c | 891.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f4…dffdbacked Yes | 18c | 890.89$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.33 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 25c | 885.08$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.64 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed Yes | 9c | 864$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.93 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 21c | 861.54$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.2 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…4738backed Yes | 22c | 855.27$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.1 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dd…8121backed Yes | 24c | 846.14$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.15 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…b775backed Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c10…6747backed Yes | 24c | 822.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times June 6–13?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times June 6–13?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350–374 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–399 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400–424 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425–449 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450–474 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475–499 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500 or more times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.