Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times June 6–13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x496295c252697c877279cc73e634b16108e4913c5e5ed2f9c42a8bf02ee74947
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $626,339
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $354,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $626,339 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes | 2c | 75,918$1,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,630.25 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 3c | 67,793$1,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,813.43 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 2c | 58,598$1,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,461.11 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 3c | 18,324$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.55 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…838bbacked Yes | 1c | 16,349$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.87 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 1c | 16,187$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.46 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 2c | 13,435$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.3 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 10,751$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.17 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 3c | 10,000$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.13 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 5c | 8,304$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.59 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 4c | 8,212$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.91 | 380 | 10%38 W · 342 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 4c | 7,927$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.39 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 8c | 7,389$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.94 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 5c | 6,924$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.11 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 1c | 6,141$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.79 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 2c | 5,462$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.05 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…4017backed Yes | 5c | 5,131$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d18…b702backed Yes | 11c | 4,513$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.42 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 1c | 4,335$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 9c | 3,604$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 10c | 3,432$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed Yes | 4c | 3,416$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed Yes | 4c | 3,406$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 3c | 3,335$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.85 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 4c | 3,210$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.1 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Yes | 3c | 3,200$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.4 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 10c | 3,110$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.16 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Yes | 1c | 2,631$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 2,086$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.69 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 8c | 2,079$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.8 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,047$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.62 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 1c | 1,818$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…1b66backed Yes | 9c | 1,799$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,681$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.71 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,674$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c5…abe9backed Yes | 14c | 1,389$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a93…a0efbacked Yes | 2c | 1,348$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8704…4b8dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,137$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 7c | 1,131$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.54 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x625c…61d1backed Yes | 1c | 1,076$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…a403backed Yes | 4c | 1,069$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…9a73backed Yes | 2c | 1,057$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 1,045$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.53 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c7…5142backed Yes | 3c | 1,011$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa3…da37backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…ab4fbacked Yes | 1c | 996.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x674f…4aa8backed Yes | 13c | 922.12$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…cda9backed Yes | 13c | 904.47$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.42 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d7…19c4backed Yes | 10c | 904.3$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.27 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…c040backed Yes | 6c | 890.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 10c | 871.03$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.9 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…e11fbacked Yes | 7c | 792.78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…b395backed Yes | 7c | 763.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1f…6f69backed Yes | 14c | 733.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 2c | 719$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 580 | 11.4%66 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 14c | 709.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x359d…7f8dbacked Yes | 3c | 695.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…7207backed Yes | 3c | 678.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 8c | 669.15$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 5c | 661.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 12c | 642.42$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 7c | 642.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 4c | 638.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 5c | 612.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 12c | 582.18$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 209 | 7.7%16 W · 193 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 6c | 581$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 8c | 576.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed Yes | 9c | 557.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 7c | 549.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 6c | 547.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 8c | 521.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 15c | 505.4$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 10c | 500$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 12c | 500$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 3c | 498.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 10c | 485.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes | 5c | 468.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf2…ef9abacked Yes | 13c | 448.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 14c | 444.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 433.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 5c | 419.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e5…5d30backed Yes | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -53%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f6…6abdbacked Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 10c | 399.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd4…db03backed Yes | 12c | 387.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…48f9backed Yes | 8c | 384.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 18cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ad11backed Yes | 4c | 356.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81c4…9afebacked Yes | 7c | 344.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +375%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x606a…8aa8backed Yes | 7c | 339.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 9c | 339$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…a693backed Yes | 7c | 334.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 122 | 4.9%6 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +213.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 4c | 332.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f1…93a8backed Yes | 4c | 322.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefd3…4b3ebacked Yes | 6c | 320.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times June 6–13?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times June 6–13?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350–374 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–399 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400–424 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425–449 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450–474 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475–499 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500 or more times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.