Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times June 6–13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dcb3783fe5f3aee5d1e9efa87cb5d44a26495eb10e882f6155d25d4517da55f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $187,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $187,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 0c | 31,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 3c | 22,323$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.76 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 1c | 17,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…9a73backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 9,514$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.17 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 1c | 5,608$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.08 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 3c | 4,199$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.94 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 2c | 3,629$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,939$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.73 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28c…5de7backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee56…bba5backed Yes | 7c | 1,428$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 1c | 1,399$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 4c | 1,333$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacfd…5374backed Yes | 5c | 1,213$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…b775backed Yes | 8c | 1,194$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 1c | 1,173$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 380 | 10%38 W · 342 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x876a…9b82backed Yes | 9c | 1,140$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.82 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e49…b263backed Yes | 9c | 1,095$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,004$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d0b…ec02backed Yes | 1c | 965.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 2c | 840.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 3c | 743.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccd2…a402backed Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb6…773dbacked Yes | 9c | 585.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 521.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd596…76ebbacked Yes | 3c | 484.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 6c | 443.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 3c | 410.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x383d…4900backed Yes | 5c | 382.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed Yes | 12c | 359.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6abd…9d3cbacked Yes | 8c | 342$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ad11backed Yes | 9c | 340$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…48f9backed Yes | 8c | 258.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 18cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed Yes | 8c | 228.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…33e9backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…c819backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 9c | 166.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286c…519abacked Yes | 9c | 152.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…cda9backed Yes | 10c | 125.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed6…b287backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4998…e875backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb41…e394backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe38…4207backed Yes | 10c | 122.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe2…f9a3backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…aaf5backed Yes | 11c | 93.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times June 6–13?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times June 6–13?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350–374 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–399 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400–424 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425–449 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450–474 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475–499 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500 or more times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.