Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c4b2131d405fd900a4d4d610f5bc7e5800aaa6768864d8c927714b4b0c7b243
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $684,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $390,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $684,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 370 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 9c | 35,795$3,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,190.68 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 22c | 29,969$6,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,584.83 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 29,686$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.67 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 12c | 29,047$3,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,431.43 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa3…da37backed Yes | 0c | 26,522$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.48 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 5c | 24,530$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,306.13 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 0c | 21,603$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.12 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 20c | 13,428$2,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,644.12 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 18c | 12,030$2,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,146.16 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 7c | 10,596$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.17 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 18c | 10,467$1,919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,919.11 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd12d…d764backed Yes | 39c | 9,268$3,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,649.28 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 9c | 7,906$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.06 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 26c | 7,395$1,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,947.83 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…838bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,888$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 15c | 6,517$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.43 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 6,218$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.98 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…7532backed Yes | 40c | 6,000$2,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,427.78 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5294…8fc0backed Yes | 5c | 5,821$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.82 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 9c | 5,473$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.08 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 15c | 5,429$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.36 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 30c | 5,335$1,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590.8 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 0c | 4,809$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe529…8a7cbacked Yes | 42c | 4,753$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ce…fa8cbacked Yes | 6c | 4,740$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.14 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x612e…675bbacked Yes | 33c | 4,660$1,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 4,578$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.51 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 26c | 4,467$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.8 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 7c | 3,706$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.8 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 13c | 3,599$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.32 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 58c | 3,223$1,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 65c | 3,142$2,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.59 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 14c | 3,126$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.19 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…505ebacked Yes | 11c | 3,000$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7456…91e9backed Yes | 23c | 3,000$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 14c | 2,814$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.03 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f75…0ac6backed Yes | 20c | 2,700$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e2…b261backed Yes | 30c | 2,672$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0433…8b4fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,585$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 1c | 2,556$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…dba1backed Yes | 47c | 2,471$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.88 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 16c | 2,462$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.6 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb20…ef0abacked Yes | 26c | 2,397$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.09 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…4107backed Yes | 24c | 2,314$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.89 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 77c | 2,122$1,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.23 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked No | 76c | 1,983$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.98 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 1,816$1,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.63 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed Yes | 39c | 1,695$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.25 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 17c | 1,500$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.96 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 29c | 1,500$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.08 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 44c | 1,465$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28c…5de7backed Yes | 11c | 1,456$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.47 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 21c | 1,448$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.45 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 16c | 1,434$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed Yes | 6c | 1,400$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Yes | 2c | 1,384$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…a960backed Yes | 41c | 1,351$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.06 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 3c | 1,348$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 266 | 19.5%52 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf2…ef9abacked Yes | 19c | 1,326$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.2 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 1,301$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.15 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…2a15backed Yes | 6c | 1,299$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.74 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa50…8756backed Yes | 32c | 1,293$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…4017backed No | 78c | 1,284$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.06 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f4…dffdbacked Yes | 30c | 1,242$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.4 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed No | 80c | 1,239$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.15 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa862…46e2backed Yes | 23c | 1,214$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 18c | 1,212$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.57 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…4615backed Yes | 25c | 1,202$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 41c | 1,179$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.04 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 7c | 1,121$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 380 | 10%38 W · 342 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dd…8121backed Yes | 29c | 1,110$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.89 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed No | 65c | 1,083$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.6 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,050$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.13 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…782cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,039$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.85 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 11c | 1,003$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.34 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 16c | 1,000$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.14 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,000$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.42 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 9c | 999.97$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…f6e4backed Yes | 2c | 993.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +442.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f1…93a8backed Yes | 29c | 966.93$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.24 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…5a02backed No | 78c | 962.09$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.75 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a93…a0efbacked Yes | 37c | 959.45$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.68 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…aaf5backed Yes | 30c | 954.04$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.31 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…9a73backed Yes | 16c | 945.74$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.55 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2260…9fcdbacked Yes | 17c | 927.86$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.89 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbb…b5f9backed Yes | 15c | 920$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.29 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes | 25c | 899.21$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 21c | 894.44$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.4 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 36c | 886.56$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.34 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8704…4b8dbacked Yes | 2c | 867.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…7e59backed Yes | 27c | 856.39$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.08 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 848$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.93 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1f…6f69backed Yes | 36c | 833.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 37c | 822.12$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.27 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03fa…cb29backed Yes | 25c | 767.65$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 4c | 733.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77be…951abacked Yes | 25c | 731.82$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.22 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 72c | 729.12$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.92 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 23c | 728.89$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.91 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13?this page
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times June 6–13?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350–374 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–399 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400–424 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425–449 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450–474 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475–499 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500 or more times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.