Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f64470f21437c661dba40a4528b121ea06e18afe86d027a7f110766fe00d18d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $543,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $236,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $543,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 1c | 83,071$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.15 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 50,737$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.73 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 0c | 30,111$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.48 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 1c | 15,240$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.23 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 2c | 13,172$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.16 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 1c | 12,145$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.51 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 1c | 11,076$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce68…f6b8backed Yes | 0c | 10,805$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 102 | 7.8%8 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,136$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d18…b702backed Yes | 1c | 9,329$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6821…5795backed Yes | 4c | 8,800$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.4 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 8,781$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.56 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 2c | 8,542$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.12 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…5484backed Yes | 4c | 8,500$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…a1d6backed Yes | 4c | 8,500$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 2c | 7,835$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.82 | 380 | 10%38 W · 342 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb865…e564backed Yes | 4c | 7,800$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.4 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x861d…d181backed Yes | 4c | 7,700$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.6 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3625…29aebacked Yes | 4c | 7,410$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.72 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdea…997dbacked Yes | 3c | 7,000$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…8008backed Yes | 4c | 6,700$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.02 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 1c | 5,828$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed Yes | 2c | 4,824$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 2c | 4,374$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 7c | 3,649$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 7c | 3,512$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.69 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…838bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,241$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 1c | 2,923$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 2,670$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa3…da37backed Yes | 1c | 2,618$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,554$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…9a73backed Yes | 5c | 2,300$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.9 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625c…61d1backed Yes | 0c | 2,081$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 4c | 2,040$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 6c | 1,747$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.53 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 1,454$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,415$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…4edabacked Yes | 1c | 1,300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 63 | 6.3%4 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes | 11c | 1,127$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda23…a7ccbacked Yes | 2c | 1,058$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 10c | 1,035$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.57 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…a960backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 11c | 999.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…c040backed Yes | 7c | 999.92$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 2c | 999.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…ee3fbacked Yes | 1c | 996.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ad11backed Yes | 5c | 976.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 12c | 909.76$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.07 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 10c | 811.73$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.86 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 3c | 801.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb26…94ddbacked Yes | 6c | 796.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1f…6f69backed Yes | 13c | 784.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 6c | 700.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 3c | 681.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 5c | 647.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed Yes | 12c | 641.97$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 2c | 638.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 6c | 602.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 5c | 599.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 4c | 581$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 9c | 561.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 6c | 554.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 7c | 537.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 4c | 534.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefd3…4b3ebacked Yes | 4c | 521.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf343…576ebacked Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 12c | 498.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 6c | 482.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 5c | 481.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 7c | 461.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 5c | 445.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…b862backed Yes | 3c | 441.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 52 | 13.5%7 W · 45 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee1…ef83backed Yes | 7c | 441.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 3c | 422$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c10…6747backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d0b…ec02backed Yes | 6c | 406.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 10c | 393.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 8c | 325.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 12c | 300.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…bbeebacked Yes | 7c | 297.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +46%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9414…0b42backed Yes | 4c | 292.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77be…951abacked Yes | 9c | 286.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacfd…5374backed Yes | 4c | 285.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53dd…2a64backed Yes | 11c | 262.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x475a…01c1backed Yes | 4c | 252.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…f134backed Yes | 6c | 250.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed Yes | 8c | 250$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…05b2backed Yes | 8c | 243.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd234…ae78backed Yes | 12c | 238.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb20…ef0abacked Yes | 8c | 237.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…c819backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…cda9backed Yes | 9c | 207.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 11c | 199.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f4…dffdbacked Yes | 11c | 198.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ed…0dd3backed Yes | 5c | 196$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 172.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03fa…cb29backed Yes | 12c | 170.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times June 6–13?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350–374 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–399 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400–424 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425–449 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450–474 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475–499 times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500 or more times June 6–13?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.