TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf37b…4eda

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
120
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Tennis, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 51 out of 100; worst MLB at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweetslast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT626.5%4 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-40.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 62 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.32
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.9
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.6
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.92
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.67
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.51
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.9
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.23
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.56
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+203%+$100.5
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.56
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+1,615.8%+$285.08
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.67
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.15
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.71
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.7
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.45
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.04
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$83.5
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$13.59
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$15.84
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$10.2
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+624.6%+$172.4
Showing 25 of 62 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1520%3 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+143.8%+$35.94
Spain leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.8
Mikel Merino: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.4
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Will England win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+70.4%+$8.45
Will France win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.75
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.52
England to win the second half?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will France vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.3
France vs. England: Both Teams to Score in First Halfbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Norway vs. England: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.25
France to score first vs. Morocco?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$10.3
All 15 picks, newest first.
Tennislast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick5cpaid-67.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cincinnati Open: Taylor Fritz vs Alex Michelsenbacked Alex Michelsen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.4
Cincinnati Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Lucrezia Stefaninibacked Lucrezia Stefanini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.7
Cincinnati Open: Alexander Blockx vs Mariano Navonebacked Mariano Navone · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
National Bank Open (Doubles): Siniakova/Zhang vs Gauff/McNallybacked Gauff/McNally · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.74
Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Radu Mihai Papoebacked Petr Nesterov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT+290.1%+$40.9
National Bank Open, Qualification: Tatjana Maria vs Isabella Martonbacked Isabella Marton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.72
The Memphis Classic, Qualification: Karman Thandi vs Sofia Johnsonbacked Karman Thandi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.7
Bloomfield Hills: Jacob Fearnley vs Michael Zhengbacked Michael Zheng · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.8
Braunschweig: Facundo Acosta vs Niels McDonaldbacked Niels McDonald · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.52
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaurbacked Minaur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$60.72
Rolex Paris Masters: Taylor Fritz vs Aleksandar Vukicbacked Vukic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.9
Wimbledon: Sabalenka vs. Siegemundbacked Siegemund · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.83
All 12 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagueslast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-50%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Cricket Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Cricket — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+14.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2024, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aztec launch a token in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.26
Will Stable launch a token in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$17
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Speed sign deal to fight Jake Paul this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2024, EST-100%-$12.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Spirit Academy (BO3)backed Spirit Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$12.53
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omegabacked Cloud9 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 19, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Colts vs. Seahawksbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.