TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$288,472
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$201,455

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $288,472 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb831…892bbacked Yes0c30,535$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5317917.9%32 W · 147 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes1c9,869$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.6632615.6%51 W · 275 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-62.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes1c8,987$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.771,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes7c8,362$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.8463821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes2c5,186$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.0730317.2%52 W · 251 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes7c4,245$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.652,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes5c4,080$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.711,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes0c3,834$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.172009%18 W · 182 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+173%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes6c3,500$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.375718.2%47 W · 524 L+1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes0c3,372$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.141863.8%7 W · 179 L-0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes6c3,342$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.695345.3%24 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf37b…4edabacked Yes1c3,213$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.92636.3%4 W · 59 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes1c3,200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.55535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes6c3,167$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.3975122.2%167 W · 584 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes2c3,046$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.361,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x514b…6931backed Yes5c2,623$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.8310441.3%43 W · 61 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes3c2,163$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603844.7%18 W · 366 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes6c2,116$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.7525413.4%34 W · 220 L-0.6wins0.00per pick14cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes4c2,050$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.7239723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes4c1,830$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9915817.7%28 W · 130 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes2c1,762$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9588610.3%91 W · 795 L-4.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes3c1,660$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6912227%33 W · 89 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-50.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes10c1,603$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.5642424.5%104 W · 320 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes2c1,591$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4335212.8%45 W · 307 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes2c1,550$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4884616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes2c1,535$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7240719.7%80 W · 327 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,392$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.912,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes10c1,245$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.6131624.7%78 W · 238 L-0.6wins0.00per pick25cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7072…69acbacked Yes1c1,215$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes1c1,204$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.072729.6%8 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-50.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes13c1,116$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.6726113.8%36 W · 225 L-0.5wins0.00per pick14cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes4c1,080$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.051,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fff…3cf1backed Yes2c1,050$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21407.5%3 W · 37 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick9cpaid+52.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes5c1,043$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8510710.3%11 W · 96 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+74.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes2c1,012$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9458011.4%66 W · 514 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes2c942.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2024114.1%34 W · 207 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2ca…58adbacked Yes6c894.68$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.611822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-38.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes3c871.16$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.031,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes4c814.28$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.112919.4%25 W · 104 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes3c813.92$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.731824.4%8 W · 174 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x355f…1847backed Yes7c751.07$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-46.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes3c690$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.511,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes7c677.59$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3253522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1f4…2a00backed Yes5c662.48$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.99478.5%4 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes3c619.22$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.634112.2%5 W · 36 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick5cpaid+102.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe769…26febacked Yes2c592.21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb5a…1537backed Yes5c587.85$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3815918.9%30 W · 129 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29e7…fbbfbacked Yes3c519.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.83417.6%6 W · 28 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick11cpaid+30.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Yes10c496.51$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2311430.7%35 W · 79 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes4c490$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5257621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2559…460bbacked Yes7c480.49$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8226418.6%49 W · 215 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bf…b296backed Yes12c440.91$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9136018.9%68 W · 292 L-1.3wins0.00per pick19cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes13c435$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6332716.8%55 W · 272 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes5c414.81$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6382714.9%123 W · 704 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes5c411.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2032016.6%53 W · 267 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes8c384.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7132917%56 W · 273 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes14c381.21$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3721816.1%35 W · 183 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes10c378.76$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5541610.6%44 W · 372 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa873…6b47backed Yes3c330.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b0a…0190backed Yes5c300$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.57820.5%16 W · 62 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9279…ff7bbacked Yes14c300$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.537316.4%12 W · 61 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-39%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes6c299.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171557.7%12 W · 143 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5280…86f9backed Yes7c278.43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4950%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes4c267.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8333231%103 W · 229 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes5c258.67$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1288018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x000c…bcf3backed Yes12c231.33$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.97616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes11c223.92$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5221521.9%47 W · 168 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x433e…6be1backed Yes9c210.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209024.4%22 W · 68 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x539e…3ccebacked Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9512514.4%18 W · 107 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c3…aebabacked Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes16c193$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.882777.9%22 W · 255 L+0.6wins0.00per pick8cpaid+35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes8c192.68$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.691238.1%10 W · 113 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-79.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d77…04c9backed Yes12c190.31$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4213811.6%16 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes7c154.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1147510.5%50 W · 425 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes15c150$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.540016.8%67 W · 333 L-0.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x339d…06dabacked Yes12c148.3$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.728821.6%19 W · 69 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010924.8%27 W · 82 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+38.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101015%5 W · 96 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-67.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f99…ee76backed Yes12c92.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11234.3%1 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick11cpaid-80.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x68ff…ec42backed Yes13c80.79$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.229018.9%17 W · 73 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dcb…7eb0backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+79.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.