Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae1487538bcad78d92f32c3d784c34b67f8026ce680b8b15582fb16f456d9823

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $441,805
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $396,641

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $441,805 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 508 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbb9c…072bbacked No	71c	12,853$9,126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,126.24	134	30.6%41 W · 93 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	28c	11,500$3,180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,320	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffa3…3d81backed Yes	45c	8,907$3,990 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,917.72	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	18c	8,527$1,524 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,002.85	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked No	28c	7,350$2,077 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,076.73	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	25c	6,585$1,630 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,954.79	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	26c	6,443$1,686 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,756.76	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No	68c	6,065$4,154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,153.94	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	30c	5,931$1,755 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,176.88	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes	23c	5,475$1,281 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,194.21	312	17.9%56 W · 256 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x913f…c676backed Yes	77c	5,324$4,119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,205.53	100	43%43 W · 57 L	-7.6wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	42c	5,059$2,133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,926.14	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed No	62c	5,000$3,119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,118.62	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5f5…e714backed No	10c	4,610$461 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$461	83	24.1%20 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	54c	4,606$2,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,106.46	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	10c	4,589$459 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,130.33	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	28c	4,533$1,288 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,245.59	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes	33c	4,453$1,472 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,981.2	162	22.2%36 W · 126 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes	31c	4,300$1,319 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,981.26	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No	34c	4,272$1,452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,452.41	189	49.2%93 W · 96 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	21c	3,723$781 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,941.8	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42b8…1305backed No	50c	3,634$1,818 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,818.23	59	44.1%26 W · 33 L	+4.1wins	+0.07per pick	37cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	19c	3,563$676 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,886.7	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	27c	3,474$951 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,522.62	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xedc1…0a06backed No	75c	3,120$2,348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,347.98	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	39cpaid	+15%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No	74c	2,829$2,103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,103.22	221	60.2%133 W · 88 L	+4.6wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed No	50c	2,617$1,316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,316.35	169	41.4%70 W · 99 L	+6.2wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No	53c	2,585$1,360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,360.31	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde03…e629backed No	79c	2,523$1,981 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,980.63	79	45.6%36 W · 43 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	74c	2,445$1,817 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,816.99	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	27c	2,414$660 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,754.14	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes	30c	2,392$723 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,669.49	292	27.7%81 W · 211 L	+7.3wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes	27c	2,352$644 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,708.59	159	29.6%47 W · 112 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed No	18c	2,250$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$395.64	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	19c	2,250$421 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,828.8	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf142…2f8abacked No	63c	2,203$1,380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,379.69	70	42.9%30 W · 40 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed No	70c	2,202$1,552 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,551.51	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed No	67c	2,175$1,455 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,454.64	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes	26c	2,167$558 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,609.56	49	18.4%9 W · 40 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd6…200fbacked No	2c	1,984$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.68	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.14per pick	20cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7374…38ffbacked No	66c	1,941$1,283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,282.6	113	59.3%67 W · 46 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1d8…8dd3backed Yes	26c	1,906$495 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,410.08	62	30.6%19 W · 43 L	+5.2wins	+0.08per pick	22cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Yes	29c	1,840$541 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,298.87	36	16.7%6 W · 30 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7141…8345backed Yes	34c	1,765$592 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,173.04	151	36.4%55 W · 96 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	32c	1,650$535 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,114.95	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x079a…d3dfbacked No	76c	1,400$1,061 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,060.69	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.11per pick	54cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked No	76c	1,381$1,054 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,054.36	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	32c	1,378$437 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$941.4	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No	39c	1,338$517 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$516.66	388	48.5%188 W · 200 L	+16.2wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes	23c	1,305$298 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,006.78	119	32.8%39 W · 80 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb614…2a44backed Yes	32c	1,226$391 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$834.22	113	39.8%45 W · 68 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	16c	1,212$189 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,023.11	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x81cd…4882backed Yes	66c	1,170$774 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$396.35	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-24%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No	53c	1,108$589 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$588.87	115	58.3%67 W · 48 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No	67c	1,098$739 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$738.72	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	66cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No	32c	1,080$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.48	126	42.9%54 W · 72 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4f…c2f1backed No	73c	1,073$784 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$783.97	147	51%75 W · 72 L	+18.0wins	+0.12per pick	39cpaid	+29.4%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x99a6…6558backed Yes	39c	1,051$409 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$642.46	73	37%27 W · 46 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	49c	1,040$513 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$526.7	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No	46c	1,029$478 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$477.65	101	51.5%52 W · 49 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No	49c	1,019$495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$495.03	167	50.3%84 W · 83 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes	24c	1,010$245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$765.36	140	22.1%31 W · 109 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes	33c	1,003$333 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$669.56	140	37.1%52 W · 88 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	23c	999.99$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$770	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8233…df36backed Yes	34c	999.99$340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$659.99	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad0c…df3cbacked No	69c	999.98$690 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$689.99	280	34.3%96 W · 184 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb5f…1ad5backed Yes	49c	968.17$471 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$497.01	49	18.4%9 W · 40 L	-4.4wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c83…28d9backed Yes	52c	941.84$486 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$455.57	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-2.9wins	-0.24per pick	49cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes	19c	933.36$175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$758.43	158	17.7%28 W · 130 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x000c…bcf3backed Yes	18c	926.27$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$761.55	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	8cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes	36c	904.31$323 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$581.02	332	31%103 W · 229 L	+10.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked No	4c	900$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9f3…3a31backed No	28c	899.99$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.99	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0186…40edbacked No	13c	866.93$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.74	97	33%32 W · 65 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	22c	865.97$187 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$679.04	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00dc…d521backed Yes	58c	837.05$483 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$353.84	43	30.2%13 W · 30 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	28c	815$232 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$582.75	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	13c	812.25$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$702.92	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked No	54c	807$439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$439.46	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x881a…ccccbacked No	66c	804.94$532 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$532.19	132	35.6%47 W · 85 L	+10.5wins	+0.08per pick	28cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	11c	799.81$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$712.95	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7741…23e6backed Yes	24c	775.76$184 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$591.41	69	36.2%25 W · 44 L	+4.1wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6d3…71cfbacked Yes	30c	756.45$223 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$533.26	86	34.9%30 W · 56 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No	23c	751.81$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.09	101	46.5%47 W · 54 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked No	25c	719.98$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5381…1ec5backed No	60c	716.85$428 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$428.14	55	45.5%25 W · 30 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7822…46c2backed Yes	38c	710.14$269 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$441.61	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes	30c	703.37$211 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$492.36	83	32.5%27 W · 56 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-15%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No	57c	700$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396.12	190	53.7%102 W · 88 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x160d…cefebacked Yes	29c	697.92$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$497.26	46	30.4%14 W · 32 L	+2.1wins	+0.05per pick	26cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes	38c	684.2$259 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$425.24	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-3.6wins	-0.11per pick	27cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf512…0985backed Yes	14c	677.51$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$585.41	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd004…d54abacked No	76c	670$506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$506.1	84	36.9%31 W · 53 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56a7…4249backed Yes	29c	661.79$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$466.86	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb08b…fbe9backed No	14c	650$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-26%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1740…d7c0backed No	69c	649.99$448 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$448	54	48.1%26 W · 28 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa562…6581backed Yes	21c	636.51$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$504.39	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	+65.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	15c	631.68$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$534.61	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes	18c	621.84$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$512.57	280	16.4%46 W · 234 L	+8.8wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x433e…6be1backed Yes	29c	614.95$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$434.95	90	24.4%22 W · 68 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event