TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$276,314
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$254,767

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $276,314 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 476 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes43c7,311$3,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,169.2253522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes41c6,171$2,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,508.15345.3%24 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes9c6,000$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.9953817.3%93 W · 445 L-2.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes24c5,113$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25033527.8%93 W · 242 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99a6…6558backed Yes51c5,096$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6007337%27 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes34c4,584$1,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,537.1239723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No67c4,389$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,438.818949.2%93 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes49c3,909$1,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,919.4966222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes41c3,652$1,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,483.931217.9%56 W · 256 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x114a…f1d1backed Yes23c3,539$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820.684012.5%5 W · 35 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No60c3,499$2,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,406.4724873%181 W · 67 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+6.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes44c3,371$1,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,496.2511932.8%39 W · 80 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes46c3,282$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5004829.2%14 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Yes22c2,969$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6393616.7%6 W · 30 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-39.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2127…37f2backed No67c2,910$1,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.6610866.7%72 W · 36 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes36c2,741$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.2557222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No65c2,690$1,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.4422160.2%133 W · 88 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes25c2,126$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.912,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked No65c2,100$1,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.6332615.6%51 W · 275 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-62.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81cd…4882backed Yes52c2,090$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.99944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-24%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No70c2,059$1,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.3454675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes46c2,049$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.2754122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes35c1,770$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.0970616.4%116 W · 590 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed No51c1,715$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.3612227%33 W · 89 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-50.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes30c1,637$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.6563821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes28c1,600$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.9925413.4%34 W · 220 L-0.6wins0.00per pick14cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffa3…3d81backed Yes75c1,537$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.46250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid+11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes2c1,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253876.5%25 W · 362 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes46c1,485$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68214037.1%52 W · 88 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-20.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes46c1,435$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.5742424.5%104 W · 320 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes39c1,387$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.8556429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x452f…cf01backed Yes5c1,382$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b05…8983backed Yes14c1,334$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.3412421.8%27 W · 97 L+11.8wins+0.10per pick12cpaid+49.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes1c1,300$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185249.9%52 W · 472 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+64%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes69c1,272$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.1422023.6%52 W · 168 L+1.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes43c1,270$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.1232529.2%95 W · 230 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes23c1,252$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.0227417.5%48 W · 226 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x952b…c92fbacked No73c1,249$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.361361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No53c1,220$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.6216750.3%84 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes30c1,211$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35910924.8%27 W · 82 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+38.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes51c1,182$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.3722325.1%56 W · 167 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-45.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes60c1,171$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.7715929.6%47 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes39c1,164$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.5888610.3%91 W · 795 L-4.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No56c1,133$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.0719053.7%102 W · 88 L-0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa562…6581backed Yes27c1,126$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+65.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No61c1,118$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.8111558.3%67 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes61c1,116$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.3443719.7%86 W · 351 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No55c1,104$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.9931242.9%134 W · 178 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes45c1,101$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.796940.6%28 W · 41 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5f5…e714backed Yes23c1,101$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.168324.1%20 W · 63 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb5f…1ad5backed Yes33c1,088$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.224918.4%9 W · 40 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-50.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb614…2a44backed Yes66c1,077$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.5711339.8%45 W · 68 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fff…3cf1backed Yes7c1,050$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.53407.5%3 W · 37 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick9cpaid+52.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8233…df36backed Yes54c999.98$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.993234.4%11 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No72c949.97$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.4918877.1%145 W · 43 L+12.3wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes33c939.97$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.431,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaabb…daf3backed Yes12c899.99$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1057133.8%24 W · 47 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+66.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes30c899.98$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.9928016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7141…8345backed Yes16c899.71$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.9815136.4%55 W · 96 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcbe…b37cbacked Yes30c844.17$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.277432.4%24 W · 50 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58a5…ec93backed No80c835.6$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.163284.4%27 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick80cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes42c818.77$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34232016.6%53 W · 267 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No50c804.67$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.4910151.5%52 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes48c797.92$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.9440719.7%80 W · 327 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed No44c791.61$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.6216222.2%36 W · 126 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes59c750$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.615718.2%47 W · 524 L+1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes43c746.09$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.163215.6%5 W · 27 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-51.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ca2…6e06backed Yes59c744.03$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.18933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+84.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bf…b296backed Yes25c730.07$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.0136018.9%68 W · 292 L-1.3wins0.00per pick19cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes26c712.05$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18723222.4%52 W · 180 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92f7…47dcbacked Yes21c710$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.72339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No62c703.42$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.12360.9%14 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes27c699.99$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19082714.9%123 W · 704 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedc1…0a06backed No73c690$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.892846.4%13 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes24c687.49$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.931624.7%78 W · 238 L-0.6wins0.00per pick25cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79a8…1befbacked Yes51c679.45$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.06944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+124.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf37b…4edabacked Yes4c659.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6636.3%4 W · 59 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes26c645.71$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.361,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26dc…e03abacked Yes23c636.42$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.4220222.8%46 W · 156 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes29c630$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.173215.2%111 W · 621 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes56c613.79$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.776821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No51c602.48$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.981238.1%10 W · 113 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-79.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes29c600$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1737828.7%68 W · 714 L-1.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked No43c598.03$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.581,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf142…2f8abacked No65c590.15$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.577042.9%30 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+5.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8221…9207backed Yes34c585.08$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.555028%14 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes7c580$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.942719.2%82 W · 345 L+23.3wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes27c574.33$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.824918.4%9 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes24c567.08$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.6114022.1%31 W · 109 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No63c558.55$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.2410144.6%45 W · 56 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No45c550.61$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.161457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes40c545.53$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.414427.1%39 W · 105 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+17.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe62e…cc81backed Yes56c536.28$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30016741.3%69 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes45c529.4$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.0617419%33 W · 141 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed No45c524.95$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.6857621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes31c516.45$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9433422.2%74 W · 260 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x019f…1152backed Yes26c515.57$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.054131.7%13 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes31c505.39$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15810125.7%26 W · 75 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+0.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked Yes18c500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9015435.1%54 W · 100 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes14c500$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6850913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.