Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f3f6418ad12e407280572919111c3e7443ef721d5381368c4a92cfaa04e70e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $276,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $254,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $276,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 476 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 43c | 7,311$3,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,169.22 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes | 41c | 6,171$2,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,508.1 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 9c | 6,000$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.99 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 24c | 5,113$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed Yes | 51c | 5,096$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 34c | 4,584$1,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,537.12 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 4,389$2,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,438.8 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 49c | 3,909$1,919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,919.49 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 41c | 3,652$1,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,483.9 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…f1d1backed Yes | 23c | 3,539$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.68 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked No | 60c | 3,499$2,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,406.47 | 248 | 73%181 W · 67 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 44c | 3,371$1,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,496.25 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes | 46c | 3,282$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 22c | 2,969$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed No | 67c | 2,910$1,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.66 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 36c | 2,741$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.25 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 65c | 2,690$1,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.44 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 2,126$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.91 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked No | 65c | 2,100$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.63 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81cd…4882backed Yes | 52c | 2,090$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 70c | 2,059$1,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.34 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 46c | 2,049$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.27 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 35c | 1,770$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.09 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…3e31backed No | 51c | 1,715$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.36 | 122 | 27%33 W · 89 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 30c | 1,637$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.65 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…4375backed Yes | 28c | 1,600$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.99 | 254 | 13.4%34 W · 220 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffa3…3d81backed Yes | 75c | 1,537$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 46c | 1,485$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 46c | 1,435$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.57 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 39c | 1,387$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.85 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…cf01backed Yes | 5c | 1,382$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…8983backed Yes | 14c | 1,334$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.34 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | +11.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 1,300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 69c | 1,272$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.14 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 43c | 1,270$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.12 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,252$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.02 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x952b…c92fbacked No | 73c | 1,249$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.36 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 53c | 1,220$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.62 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes | 30c | 1,211$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 51c | 1,182$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.37 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 60c | 1,171$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.77 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 39c | 1,164$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.58 | 886 | 10.3%91 W · 795 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 1,133$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.07 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa562…6581backed Yes | 27c | 1,126$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 61c | 1,118$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.81 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 61c | 1,116$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.34 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 55c | 1,104$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.99 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes | 45c | 1,101$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.79 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…e714backed Yes | 23c | 1,101$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.16 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…1ad5backed Yes | 33c | 1,088$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.22 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb614…2a44backed Yes | 66c | 1,077$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.57 | 113 | 39.8%45 W · 68 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fff…3cf1backed Yes | 7c | 1,050$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8233…df36backed Yes | 54c | 999.98$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.99 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7354…430fbacked No | 72c | 949.97$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.49 | 188 | 77.1%145 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 33c | 939.97$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.43 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…daf3backed Yes | 12c | 899.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 30c | 899.98$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.99 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 16c | 899.71$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.98 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbe…b37cbacked Yes | 30c | 844.17$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.27 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a5…ec93backed No | 80c | 835.6$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.16 | 32 | 84.4%27 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 80cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 42c | 818.77$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 50c | 804.67$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.49 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 48c | 797.92$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.94 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed No | 44c | 791.61$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.62 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…8733backed Yes | 59c | 750$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.61 | 571 | 8.2%47 W · 524 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes | 43c | 746.09$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.16 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…6e06backed Yes | 59c | 744.03$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…b296backed Yes | 25c | 730.07$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.01 | 360 | 18.9%68 W · 292 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 26c | 712.05$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f7…47dcbacked Yes | 21c | 710$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.7 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 62c | 703.42$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.1 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 27c | 699.99$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…0a06backed No | 73c | 690$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.89 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 24c | 687.49$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.9 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79a8…1befbacked Yes | 51c | 679.45$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…4edabacked Yes | 4c | 659.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 63 | 6.3%4 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 26c | 645.71$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.36 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…e03abacked Yes | 23c | 636.42$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.42 | 202 | 22.8%46 W · 156 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 29c | 630$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.1 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 613.79$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.7 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 51c | 602.48$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.98 | 123 | 8.1%10 W · 113 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 29c | 600$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 43c | 598.03$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.58 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…2f8abacked No | 65c | 590.15$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.57 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8221…9207backed Yes | 34c | 585.08$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.55 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 7c | 580$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes | 27c | 574.33$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.82 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee1…746fbacked Yes | 24c | 567.08$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.61 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 63c | 558.55$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.24 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 45c | 550.61$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.16 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 40c | 545.53$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.4 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…cc81backed Yes | 56c | 536.28$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 167 | 41.3%69 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 45c | 529.4$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.06 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed No | 45c | 524.95$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.68 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 31c | 516.45$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.94 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019f…1152backed Yes | 26c | 515.57$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.05 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes | 31c | 505.39$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…23fdbacked Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 154 | 35.1%54 W · 100 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 14c | 500$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.