Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf6a4354937325956dca1b5f2158390122af8b17ff91191818b7e47c0f85d9a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $335,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $239,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $335,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 261 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…8733backed Yes | 7c | 9,000$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601 | 571 | 8.2%47 W · 524 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 1c | 6,593$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 553 | 5.6%31 W · 522 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 6c | 5,764$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.86 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 4c | 5,500$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.5 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 15c | 5,445$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.81 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d5…d80abacked Yes | 13c | 5,443$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 3c | 5,036$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.3 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 20c | 4,881$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.95 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 4c | 4,469$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.43 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 3c | 4,324$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.91 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fff…3cf1backed Yes | 4c | 4,054$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.17 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…4375backed Yes | 21c | 3,979$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.99 | 254 | 13.4%34 W · 220 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 11c | 3,542$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.1 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…f1d1backed Yes | 23c | 3,462$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.44 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x832d…6ec5backed Yes | 1c | 3,180$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 117 | 7.7%9 W · 108 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 7c | 3,009$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.95 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,890$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.92 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 23c | 2,843$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.36 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,748$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.02 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,486$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 3c | 2,344$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 14c | 2,250$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,177$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 361 | 13.3%48 W · 313 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 76c | 2,132$1,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.31 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 2c | 2,100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056d…3b69backed Yes | 4c | 2,053$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.93 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 1c | 2,024$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 217 | 6%13 W · 204 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 18c | 2,005$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.31 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcadc…4285backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 16c | 1,977$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.18 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 1,865$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8233…df36backed Yes | 1c | 1,821$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 7c | 1,789$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.05 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…5ab4backed Yes | 1c | 1,738$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 80 | 2.5%2 W · 78 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,718$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4067…6ffabacked Yes | 1c | 1,660$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 17c | 1,619$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.85 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 1,580$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.44 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 11c | 1,578$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.07 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed No | 75c | 1,514$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.86 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…1ad5backed Yes | 20c | 1,433$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.65 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 3c | 1,413$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 25c | 1,386$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 8c | 1,346$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.58 | 886 | 10.3%91 W · 795 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 16c | 1,328$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.55 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc191…0f9abacked Yes | 32c | 1,319$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.89 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa43e…ec90backed Yes | 18c | 1,310$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.33 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 9c | 1,188$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.49 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,100$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 12c | 1,080$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.55 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked No | 77c | 1,050$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.42 | 248 | 73%181 W · 67 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa54c…8dc0backed Yes | 15c | 1,004$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.2 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 559 | 8.2%46 W · 513 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…8983backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | +11.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked No | 79c | 999.99$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.28 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 10c | 999.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…1300backed Yes | 13c | 999.98$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 27c | 978$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.88 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 7c | 936.74$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 15c | 917.31$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.8 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 21c | 862.19$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.19 | 123 | 8.1%10 W · 113 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58a5…ec93backed No | 79c | 847$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.34 | 32 | 84.4%27 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 80cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 15c | 831.17$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.89 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 3c | 815.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 2c | 815.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 7c | 741.41$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 5c | 709.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 6c | 700$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 18c | 693.97$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.97 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes | 2c | 685.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 278 | 5%14 W · 264 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 21c | 673.14$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.21 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…2cd8backed Yes | 16c | 661.54$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.26 | 261 | 13.8%36 W · 225 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 2c | 650$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed Yes | 15c | 646.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 178 | 24.7%44 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbe…b37cbacked Yes | 23c | 630.35$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.58 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81fb…25f3backed No | 79c | 625$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.25 | 34 | 79.4%27 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 77cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79a8…1befbacked Yes | 20c | 620.03$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652e…4a94backed Yes | 5c | 606.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 133 | 23.3%31 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes | 14c | 600$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.03 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 22c | 578.9$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 17c | 577.85$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 149 | 13.4%20 W · 129 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7354…430fbacked No | 75c | 575.98$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.55 | 188 | 77.1%145 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…6e06backed Yes | 30c | 575.95$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.57 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22e…18f2backed Yes | 10c | 560.18$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1239…f34cbacked Yes | 23c | 559.41$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -64%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 544.82$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 6c | 544.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699b…0296backed Yes | 13c | 462.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 193 | 14%27 W · 166 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 9c | 460$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 580 | 11.4%66 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…4e9ebacked Yes | 27c | 455.61$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.55 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4827…7d38backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -72%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes | 19c | 443.47$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.28 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes | 26c | 439.43$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8221…9207backed Yes | 24c | 439.35$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.02 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81d4…3c9fbacked Yes | 20c | 436.68$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.07 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.