TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x00dc…d521

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
104
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 56 out of 100; worst Middle East at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweetslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT4330.2%13 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid+12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.55
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$339.99
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$49.91
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.22
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$342Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$218.4
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+120.1%+$90.05
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$249Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$249.23
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$130
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$229.71
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.76
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$483Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+73.2%+$353.84
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$130.2
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$87.07
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+78.4%+$34.67
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$173Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+38.9%+$67.2
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+547.5%+$380.5
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$288Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+38.9%+$112
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+27.4%+$57
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$137.51
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$566Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$566
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$64
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$205.69
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+643.8%+$833.46
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$20.57
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$137.06
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$214Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+39.9%+$85.47
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+28.2%+$5.81
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+63.9%+$97.5
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$63
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 52-53°F on February 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$92.05
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+162.9%+$145.6
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 23°F or below on January 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+27.6%+$9.75
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+46.9%+$68.75
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$99.09
All 9 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-50.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.27
Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$256.73
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$129
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$94.32
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$231.79
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+35.4%+$40.63
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+49.3%+$38.88
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$166Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+64.8%+$107.43
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$70.75
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 4, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-77.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+76.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Dec 27, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+29.9%+$9.2
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winnerbacked Invictus Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+55.1%+$18.65
All 2 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+61.3%+$57
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Ligalast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-08-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$140
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$14.97
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$57.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2last resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$361Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$361.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jazz vs. Mavericks: O/U 241.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$13.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Tariff" 3+ times during Xi events on October 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.