Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 23°F or below on January 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dd81618437d2b0a758497aacde7c0388ccd2be39938f09bea2cc41b14d580ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x252d…ad22backed Yes | 41c | 1,186$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.96 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 11c | 740.35$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.38 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 25c | 647.58$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.25 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f6…de59backed Yes | 44c | 500$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed No | 47c | 451.16$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.39 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 10c | 426.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 58c | 362.72$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.31 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…1d80backed No | 54c | 350$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes | 10c | 307.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 48c | 267.9$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.36 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 21c | 249.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 51c | 225.41$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.3 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 47c | 219.88$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.25 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65da…69d2backed Yes | 22c | 208.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 44c | 199.86$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.94 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 58c | 192.8$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 57c | 181.74$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.59 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 55c | 181.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 30c | 180$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 176.48$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…59f9backed Yes | 38c | 126.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32e…7f7bbacked Yes | 62c | 118.42$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.13 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 34c | 116.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.49 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…9f27backed No | 34c | 113.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.29 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 63c | 100.34$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…bac2backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…12d0backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2dc…e100backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0f…5aabbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 13cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7482…6cf6backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…ae45backed Yes | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7d…0639backed Yes | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3de5…c157backed Yes | 44c | 98.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…650ebacked No | 51c | 97.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec95…7332backed Yes | 51c | 95.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 39c | 83.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f84…6f7ebacked Yes | 58c | 74.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 44c | 73.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 20c | 68.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 30c | 67.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3460…edbbbacked Yes | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1a…f68bbacked Yes | 40c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…70c4backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 43c | 57.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 31c | 56.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…537cbacked Yes | 44c | 56.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8d…c149backed Yes | 46c | 55.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7288…42a3backed No | 59c | 55.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 56c | 49.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked No | 59c | 46.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…d521backed No | 78c | 45.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 57c | 42.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 40c | 41.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 53c | 40.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…83babacked No | 51c | 40.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa52e…8f85backed Yes | 49c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e24…24fbbacked Yes | 52c | 39.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc13c…024bbacked No | 25c | 39.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 43c | 38.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x731c…323bbacked Yes | 50c | 38.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 62c | 35.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47d…fb65backed No | 45c | 34.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 48c | 34.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…28e6backed No | 62c | 34.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba66…ca3cbacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7184…56d7backed Yes | 63c | 32.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 52c | 31.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…986bbacked Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 54c | 29.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 50c | 27.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…3595backed Yes | 56c | 27.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 58c | 25.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e7…05e6backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0c…ced7backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +268.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b2…35f6backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 51c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…33a6backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9e6dbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed0…6106backed No | 62c | 17.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…7dd2backed Yes | 63c | 16.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 23°F or below on January 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on January 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on January 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on January 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.