TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2e24…24fb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
206
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Bundesliga, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Bundesliga at 59 out of 100; worst Australian A League at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2026, EDT3655.6%20 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Levante UD: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.4
Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-1.5)backed Levante UD · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$4.15
Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)backed RC Celta de Vigo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+37%+$5.31
Villarreal CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+25%+$3.95
Spread: CA Osasuna (-1.5)backed Sevilla FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$4.54
CA Osasuna vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$6.2
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)backed Real Betis Balompié · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$8.55
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.15
Real Oviedo vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$4.92
Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)backed RCD Espanyol de Barcelona · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$4.34
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.98
Levante UD vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$5.7
Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5)backed RC Celta de Vigo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$7.04
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$4.34
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Getafe CF: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.34
Elche CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$4.15
Girona FC vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$4.54
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)backed Real Madrid CF · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.51
Spread: Athletic Club (-1.5)backed CA Osasuna · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+37%+$5.4
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)backed Real Madrid CF · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.65
Will Girona FC vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.12
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.33
Will Getafe CF vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.09
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.67
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2026, EDT2955.2%16 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)backed Brentford FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$5.12
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)backed Crystal Palace FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.52
Will Oxford United FC win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$7
Queens Park Rangers FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$9.32
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$5.7
West Bromwich Albion FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.6
Oxford United FC vs. Sheffield Wednesday FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$4.73
Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5)backed Leeds United FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$4.92
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)backed Manchester City FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.75
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-04-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$7.24
Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.19
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)backed Arsenal FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$5.19
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$5.19
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)backed Burnley FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.8
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)backed Sunderland AFC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$5.7
Aston Villa FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$4.92
Everton FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$4.34
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)backed Manchester United FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$7.1
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)backed Leeds United FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$8.61
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.56
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$14.4
Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+58.7%+$7.4
Manchester City FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$12.8
Leeds United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$14.2
AFC Bournemouth vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT2857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Suns vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.42
Spread: Thunder (-7.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.68
Magic vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+30.6%+$4.53
Spread: Pistons (-14.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.39
Clippers vs. Trail Blazersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.23
Spread: Warriors (-10.5)backed Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.9
Spread: Spurs (-18.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+133.3%+$33.6
Spread: 76ers (-15.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.39
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$18.65
Spread: Nuggets (-22.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.31
Hawks vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+41.7%+$8.19
Rockets vs. Sunsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+276.6%+$66.18
Spread: Thunder (-14.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$15.92
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+92.4%+$17.94
76ers vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$8.35
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.47
Spread: Thunder (-24.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+121.2%+$37.7
Timberwolves vs. 76ersbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.56
Spurs vs. Clippersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+81.4%+$19.8
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+61.7%+$9.06
Spread: Thunder (-9.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.22
Celtics vs. Heatbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$6.85
Hawks vs. Magicbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$7.62
76ers vs. Wizardsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+26%+$6.15
Cavaliers vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$8.57
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2026, EDT2157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)backed Udinese Calcio · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+25%+$3.95
SS Lazio vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$5.89
Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)backed Cagliari Calcio · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$5.89
US Lecce vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$5.89
Spread: Juventus FC (-2.5)backed Bologna FC 1909 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$4.4
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$8.26
US Cremonese vs. Torino FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.75
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-2.5)backed Cagliari Calcio · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.61
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$3.15
Will Como 1907 vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.15
Will SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.18
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$30.14
ACF Fiorentina vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Udinese Calcio vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+29.9%+$4.6
Udinese Calcio vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+39.4%+$5.91
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$36.3
US Lecce vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$23.94
AC Milan vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$89
SSC Napoli vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+203%+$22.33
Torino FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Udinese Calcio vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+132.6%+$14.58
All 21 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Apr 28, 2026, EDT1573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Asian League — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-2.5)backed Damac Saudi Club · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$8.6
Spread: Al Shabab Saudi Club (-1.5)backed Al Fateh Saudi Club · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$5.8
Spread: Kawasaki Frontale (-1.5)backed JEF United Ichihara Chiba · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$6.2
Will Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Nagoya Grampus end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.59
Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+150%+$23.91
Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+118.2%+$13.72
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.36
Spread: Daejeon Hana Citizen FC (-1.5)backed Jeju SK FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$5.7
Will Pohang Steelers FC win on 2026-04-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$7.24
Will Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC win on 2026-04-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.4
FC Seoul vs. Bucheon FC 1995: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$6
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Gangwon FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$6.28
Spread: FC Seoul (-1.5)backed Bucheon FC 1995 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.54
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. Incheon United FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$5.51
Spread: Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club (-1.5)backed Al Shabab Saudi Club · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+68.6%+$10.04
All 15 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT1485.7%12 W · 2 L+3.3wins+0.23per pick62cpaid+50.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.79
Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)backed SV Werder Bremen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$6.22
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$8.19
Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)backed 1. FC Köln · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$5.51
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+242.5%+$81.79
Spread: RB Leipzig (-2.5)backed 1. FC Union Berlin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$6.8
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$9.42
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$4.34
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)backed FC Bayern München · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+151.8%+$18.2
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+65.3%+$12.54
Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)backed FC Augsburg · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$3.84
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$4.55
Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)backed FC Augsburg · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.8
RB Leipzig vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+120.8%+$25.85
All 14 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2026, EDT1464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Gil Vicente FC (-1.5)backed Casa Pia AC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$5.7
Gil Vicente FC vs. Casa Pia AC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$5.51
Spread: FC København (-1.5)backed FC København · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$8.38
Beşiktaş JK vs. Fatih Karagümrük SK: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.58
Spread: PSV (-1.5)backed PSV · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$8.2
Randers FC vs. FC Fredericia: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+25%+$3.95
Spread: Randers FC (-1.5)backed FC Fredericia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+35.5%+$6.62
Moreirense FC vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.4
Spread: Estoril Praia (-1.5)backed Moreirense FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+25%+$4
Spread: SC Braga (-1.5)backed FC Famalicão · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$4.73
SC Braga vs. FC Famalicão: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$4.73
Tromsø IL vs. Lillestrøm SK: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Alanyaspor win on 2026-03-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.08
Spread: Trabzonspor (-1.5)backed Kayserispor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.4
All 14 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST1428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$48.8
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on February 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$137.53
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on February 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$14.37
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$50.64
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on February 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$67.59
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C or higher on February 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$35.03
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$95.32
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C or higher on February 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+450%+$131.83
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+141.9%+$35.2
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -3°C on January 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+143.9%+$17.7
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C on January 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$29.99
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 23°F or below on January 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$20.6
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C on January 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+83.5%+$18.2
All 14 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT1250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$17.24
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Spread: Juventus FC (-2.5)backed Galatasaray SK · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$15.4
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)backed AS Monaco FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+56.3%+$11.25
Juventus FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+44.9%+$6.2
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-2.5)backed FK Bodø/Glimt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+62.2%+$18.66
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)backed Newcastle United FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$20.4
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+66.7%+$29.89
Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$31.2
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$97.6
Galatasaray SK vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+103.9%+$44.47
All 12 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+29.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-04-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.27
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$7.62
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-04-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.18
Stade Brestois 29 vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$11.71
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)backed Paris Saint-Germain FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$6.08
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)backed Paris Saint-Germain FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$9.6
Lille OSC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+100%+$10
Stade Brestois 29 vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Le Havre AC vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+197%+$19.9
All 9 picks, newest first.
Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick68cpaid-50%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Feb 19, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+154.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 16-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$28.8
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 16-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$6.63
All 2 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: CA Lanús (-2.5)backed Club Always Ready · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$5.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Mls — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Austin FC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.01
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Zhejiang Lions vs. Guangdong Southern Tigersbacked Zhejiang Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.8
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.