TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C or higher on February 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,258
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,033

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,258 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c3,962$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.282,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9417…28a3backed No2c3,900$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.998139.5%32 W · 49 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-37.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…238cbacked No1c2,128$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.322416.7%4 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid+30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x554a…96e3backed No78c1,401$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,092.183852.6%20 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes41c625.19$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.271,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed No61c610.77$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.8528737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0518…6876backed No40c600$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2404346.5%20 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fb5…cabdbacked Yes56c500.11$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.292740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes59c430.65$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.6511930.3%36 W · 83 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed Yes33c332.92$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.5724149.8%120 W · 121 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa817…95d7backed Yes39c316.33$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.5616934.9%59 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed No40c312.15$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.611855.1%65 W · 53 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No36c282.17$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.1117243.6%75 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec0c…8589backed No70c210$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.1810346.6%48 W · 55 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7447…1480backed Yes27c204.47$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.0710518.1%19 W · 86 L-8.8wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-49.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd2d6…b8e3backed No68c184.28$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.4314251.4%73 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa00d…6ffdbacked Yes25c169.65$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.02387.9%3 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-51.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde55…dc14backed No33c148.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.574729.8%14 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid+137%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No25c141.76$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4439810.8%43 W · 355 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70db…afb2backed Yes32c134$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.127737.7%29 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d8c…0977backed Yes54c132.43$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.436315.9%10 W · 53 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-63.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes65c127.93$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2645127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes28c122.78$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.9246626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes28c119.59$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.032,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes63c118.33$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0316465.2%107 W · 57 L+18.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+27.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1150…e701backed No21c116.93$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.45837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-6.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No70c113.36$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.513,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes19c108.07$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.1893034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes28c107.59$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.5925536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6c0…dd68backed Yes29c106.9$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.882626.9%7 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed Yes22c106.69$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.2734651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes24c102.04$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.557719.5%15 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ddf…af5fbacked No79c100.48$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.07650%3 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes23c100.02$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.1823633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa178…2112backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4210184.2%85 W · 16 L+26.9wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+70.6%equal weight74+0.21 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes19c100$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.81,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes23c88$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.7634748.7%169 W · 178 L+13.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed Yes74c86.97$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.78812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.1wins-0.38per pick51cpaid-83.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf911…8d8ebacked No57c79.93$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7410246.1%47 W · 55 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No37c70.13$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6744553.3%237 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6078…8181backed Yes31c67.86$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+59.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes36c67.67$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2657659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c45…79c3backed Yes45c67.06$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.06333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes22c66.47$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.9955919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes50c65.69$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.89048.9%44 W · 46 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3792…0f23backed Yes31c65.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.36540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick17cpaid+236.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes23c65$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.35129.4%15 W · 36 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No75c60.17$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.348,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f5…029bbacked Yes20c59.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.291136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+25.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e24…24fbbacked No63c55.53$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.031428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f33…8da9backed Yes27c55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.319944.4%44 W · 55 L+11.1wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+25.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes47c54$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7214338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No36c53.32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0634457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cc5…af1cbacked Yes34c52.7$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.52769.2%7 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-45.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25d6…7c4bbacked Yes38c52.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.14837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x536d…3152backed No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2512073.3%88 W · 32 L+9.4wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3554232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94c8…b47ebacked No67c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.71637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-41.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed No36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1886226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes48c49.2$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3556627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c48.42$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x647c…bd7ebacked Yes66c45.4$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57e0…8761backed Yes74c45$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.51650%8 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc9d…423ebacked Yes23c43.6$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.57922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5af0…e2b9backed Yes24c41.7$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.69250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8dc…d8a4backed Yes35c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264438.6%17 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes67c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.216548.5%80 W · 85 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d35…3af0backed Yes48c39.34$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.483871.1%27 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbffd…f213backed No68c37.5$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.51145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick62cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf68…c804backed Yes32c35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.851145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe6…a9e6backed Yes50c34$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x999d…5b2ebacked Yes34c32$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.163941%16 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8d3…a2fdbacked Yes42c31.8$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.444235.7%15 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x358b…3722backed Yes51c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7352533.1%174 W · 351 L+21.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes39c29$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.773531.4%11 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0172…adf9backed Yes40c26.46$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.89728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-44%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes70c25.53$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6690040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x21cc…2939backed Yes43c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.25425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-41.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2ce…97a7backed No71c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.65742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick55cpaid+5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes65c23.22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2232548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked No50c22.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3331567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd30d…fd5dbacked No76c22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.726656.1%37 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717460.3%105 W · 69 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedfd…5728backed Yes60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-79.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No66c19.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.24,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80bd…1f70backed Yes80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.54156.1%23 W · 18 L+6.1wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+40.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.