Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on February 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa60bd2cc207f7cf3e3ac92f51d5f506a807cfd83bfcf96c58fd0ec559893609c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 0c | 14,113$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 9,267$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…28a3backed Yes | 1c | 3,453$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dc…d8a4backed Yes | 1c | 1,432$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dc14backed Yes | 3c | 1,075$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +137%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed Yes | 1c | 980.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb5…cabdbacked Yes | 50c | 397.48$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e24…24fbbacked Yes | 21c | 327.84$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.59 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 66c | 299.12$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…1174backed Yes | 34c | 238.62$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.62 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 40c | 222.12$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.76 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a2…242abacked Yes | 46c | 215.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 26c | 212.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49e…4625backed Yes | 66c | 204.42$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 23c | 189.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 14c | 160.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 33c | 144.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 78c | 105.13$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 103.87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 65c | 103.73$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…6876backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 47c | 88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…a2fdbacked No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 49c | 73.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 80c | 70.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 63.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 63.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 49c | 60.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked No | 50c | 59.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 31c | 56.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 41c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 30c | 51.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 67c | 49.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be7…afbdbacked No | 59c | 42.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf82b…8e81backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2840…5b4cbacked Yes | 50c | 38.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 34c | 38.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…7c4bbacked Yes | 53c | 37.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 50c | 37.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 48c | 35.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 31c | 34.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea50…4929backed Yes | 43c | 33.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 38c | 33.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86f…0292backed Yes | 36c | 28.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 70c | 25.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed No | 55c | 20.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 18.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd19b…8054backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on February 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C or below on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C or higher on February 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.