Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03f744f2180306541ee3eb94c6b8d4cdf3a43257e1ccce4f2ab71906c8b8ead1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Qarabağ Ağdam FKof Newcastle United FC, Qarabağ Ağdam FK
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 32c | 3,092$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,090.14 | 1,959 | 44.1%863 W · 1,096 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Newcastle United FC | 72c | 2,788$2,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,007.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 30c | 2,280$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600.83 | 260 | 47.7%124 W · 136 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x394c…158cbacked Newcastle United FC | 69c | 1,683$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 14c | 960.18$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.98 | 994 | 35%348 W · 646 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 31c | 918.78$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.96 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 29c | 816$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.95 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Newcastle United FC | 69c | 791.66$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.65 | 306 | 57.5%176 W · 130 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Newcastle United FC | 68c | 493.14$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.34 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Newcastle United FC | 69c | 434.78$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 133 | 49.6%66 W · 67 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 32c | 420$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.06 | 434 | 27.4%119 W · 315 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Newcastle United FC | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6339…141ebacked Newcastle United FC | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 32c | 293$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.24 | 97 | 43.3%42 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…eb6ebacked Newcastle United FC | 56c | 268.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Newcastle United FC | 69c | 217.39$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Newcastle United FC | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 256 | 59.8%153 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Newcastle United FC | 54c | 193.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 32c | 183.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.74 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Newcastle United FC | 67c | 174.4$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.85 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 32c | 164.66$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.97 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Newcastle United FC | 69c | 155$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.48 | 293 | 50.5%148 W · 145 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Newcastle United FC | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3396…d10ebacked Newcastle United FC | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 31c | 126$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.94 | 489 | 47.6%233 W · 256 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…bce9backed Newcastle United FC | 70c | 123.57$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 32c | 123.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.78 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd00…7a45backed Newcastle United FC | 68c | 109.53$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6c…a67dbacked Newcastle United FC | 69c | 108.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.01 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9135…a63ebacked Newcastle United FC | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 31c | 90.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 594 | 41.8%248 W · 346 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 25c | 82.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.05 | 142 | 20.4%29 W · 113 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 52c | 79.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 99 | 66.7%66 W · 33 L | +13.5wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…ee4dbacked Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…997abacked Newcastle United FC | 71c | 70.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 25c | 66.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.21 | 394 | 43.1%170 W · 224 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20b3…a273backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 32c | 60.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…c91abacked Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 32c | 53.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9c…5a62backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Newcastle United FC | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +90%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Newcastle United FC | 70c | 45.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c0…c187backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 33c | 45.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Newcastle United FC | 68c | 44.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8a…7fd4backed Newcastle United FC | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 29c | 41.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 631 | 50.2%317 W · 314 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb152…ef4cbacked Newcastle United FC | 69c | 39.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7f…12d5backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 31c | 38.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Newcastle United FC | 69c | 37.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 294 | 45.9%135 W · 159 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…3a2abacked Newcastle United FC | 68c | 37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 32c | 33.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e24…24fbbacked Newcastle United FC | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 64c | 29.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1,487 | 40.3%599 W · 888 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Newcastle United FC | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.31per pick | 50cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…39b8backed Newcastle United FC | 69c | 22.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Newcastle United FC | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d60…50dbbacked Newcastle United FC | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Newcastle United FC | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Newcastle United FC | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 88 | 62.5%55 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae39…3253backed Newcastle United FC | 69c | 19.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…f6f7backed Newcastle United FC | 69c | 17.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4929…b9f9backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 62c | 17.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 61c | 16.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Newcastle United FC | 67c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)this page
- Newcastle United FC vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 1.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 2.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 3.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-2.5)Qarabağ Ağdam FK won
- Spread: Qarabağ Ağdam FK (-2.5)Newcastle United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.