Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x738f4872c96ca8a3d49611956ed4d307bb802dabbb258d5cf8f051fcca63ca34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Manchester United FCof Chelsea FC, Manchester United FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Manchester United FC | 80c | 4,678$3,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.93 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Manchester United FC | 77c | 3,833$2,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.88 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77a3…0e3fbacked Chelsea FC | 26c | 3,714$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.43 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66e2…41b6backed Chelsea FC | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Chelsea FC | 25c | 1,910$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.5 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked Manchester United FC | 75c | 1,641$1,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.25 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Chelsea FC | 25c | 1,513$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.36 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab3…f61fbacked Chelsea FC | 7c | 1,227$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…4f22backed Manchester United FC | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb53a…e694backed Chelsea FC | 25c | 821.3$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.33 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Chelsea FC | 24c | 654.22$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.8 | 1,012 | 33.2%336 W · 676 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Manchester United FC | 75c | 467.22$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.47 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chelsea FC | 23c | 460.54$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.65 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x988c…90c1backed Chelsea FC | 7c | 423.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Manchester United FC | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 557 | 51.5%287 W · 270 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfef7…8c9dbacked Chelsea FC | 22c | 338.73$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.52 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Chelsea FC | 5c | 299.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 131 | 32.1%42 W · 89 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Manchester United FC | 75c | 299.81$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.12 | 418 | 50.7%212 W · 206 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Manchester United FC | 74c | 294$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 277 | 52.3%145 W · 132 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Manchester United FC | 79c | 249.3$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Manchester United FC | 75c | 244.94$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.23 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ef…26adbacked Manchester United FC | 79c | 149.98$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8232…d12fbacked Manchester United FC | 76c | 129.68$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe91c…317ebacked Manchester United FC | 76c | 129.68$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9759…cb52backed Chelsea FC | 22c | 114.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9feb…c249backed Chelsea FC | 20c | 114.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58be…2517backed Chelsea FC | 25c | 113.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9209…dc9bbacked Chelsea FC | 21c | 81.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Manchester United FC | 74c | 74.17$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Manchester United FC | 75c | 52.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 221 | 46.2%102 W · 119 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Manchester United FC | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 396 | 51.5%204 W · 192 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Manchester United FC | 74c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Manchester United FC | 76c | 38.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e24…24fbbacked Manchester United FC | 76c | 29.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8c…b507backed Manchester United FC | 76c | 27.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b4…01fdbacked Manchester United FC | 76c | 25.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa228…ec0ebacked Manchester United FC | 77c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…7823backed Manchester United FC | 76c | 22.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…7f72backed Manchester United FC | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Manchester United FC | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…66dcbacked Manchester United FC | 76c | 19.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ba…ce43backed Manchester United FC | 76c | 19.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)this page
- Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)Manchester United FC won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)Chelsea FC won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)Chelsea FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.